Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[silentknight]

Why isn't this in breaking news...it is now a threat to the United States. I had to do a search just to find the topic.

ack

[silentknight]

Some of the data does still suggest that it could move more towards the west. ANYTHING past day 2 is an educated guess.

[Michael Goldsberry]

They just put it in breaking.

[sissyjane]

Don't forget the refill on the happy meds, for the doggies...:>)

[No Blue States]

Shear weakening..but some decay expected over Cuba...still holding at 997...up to possible Cat 3 landfall for western FL on Wed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/271459.shtml

What a difference one day made.

[brytlea]

Fortunately the 2 I have right now are unconcerned about weather, which is nice. But, we are prepared, just in case! ;)
However, I do need a second bag of dog food, just in case. Wouldn't want em hungry!
susie

[nwctwx]

Anything past 6 hours is an educated guess.

[dirtboy]

This is the historical map from wunderground.com:

Note the 1928 storm is the only one close to the forecast track:

And taking the same track across Cuba as the forecast one for Ernesto reduced it to a tropical storm.

[dirtboy]

Anything past 6 hours is an educated guess.

But anything within the 48 hour cone of uncertainty needs to be taken very seriously. By the time you're sure, it's generally too late to react.

[NautiNurse]

If the track forecast holds for FL, hotel rooms will be needed for evacuees. Unless you are staying with friends, you might want to re-schedule.

[MikefromOhio]

Is Ernesto just another Latin American illegal entering our space? Are we now giving hurricanes Spanish names as a PC move? Aztlan is near and we are asleep!

That's about as lame as lame can get....

[sissyjane]

I'll be thinking of you!! What city are you in again?

[RobFromGa]

Nice job once again NN. Your threads are great for keeping up with these storms. I love the animated 3 and 5 day tracks, they really give you a good idea of how the storm is behaving. Not that they can't change.

[nwctwx]

I have mixed feelings about the historical maps. It's hard to replicate a pattern exactly every go around. It's still good argument for a west trend though! ;-)

[dirtboy]

Last major Tampa Bay hurricane was 1921:

And there was another hit in 1946 but that was a borderline Cat 1/Cat 2.

[nwctwx]

But anything within the 48 hour cone of uncertainty needs to be taken very seriously.

That's true. Even out to three days, the forecasts have become much better than they were. Weak and developing storms are always a nuisance.

[dirtboy]

It's still good argument for a west trend though!

Yeah, and I have a feeling that is what keeps driving the models, even though the shift for the trend has been north and east. It still looks to me like the center is jumping northwards and is now just about rightalong the south coast of Haiti. But the hurricane hunters should have some actual position fix soon.

[elfman2]

Thanks!

[CFC__VRWC]

Those model tracks are giving me a sick feeling in my tummy.

Good morning, NN. Definitely not what I wanted to wake up to this morning. Ernesto's starting look an awful lot like Charley's big brother. :(

I didn't log on earlier this morning because I knew if I did I'd get sucked into this thread and wouldn't make it to Mass, and if there ever was a day to make Mass, today is it. So now I'm back, having stopped by Wal Mart to top off the pantry. Figure I'd better get the stuff now before it really starts flying off the shelves. People here (eastern Polk County) are definitely starting to pay attention. So far it's not too bad, but there's a real run going on bottled water, based on my Wal Mart trip. Batteries were starting to get scarce as well.

Since I didn't log on, I watched the Weather Channel to get the 8:00 AM update, and what I saw there was enough to make me refuse to turn it on again, maybe forever. Nothing but hysterically pimping Katrina. I think they have the next week at least solidly booked with Katrina specials . At least I had the volume turned down while they brayed on and on about their little pet hurricane - saved me from ripping out an endless stream of blasphemies and oaths that would have made me blush back in my Navy days.

At any rate, I'll keep an eagle eye on this storm, and if the current track starts to firm up in the next day or two I'll start making arrangements to get out of its way. Charley really whacked us hard two years ago - I was without power for a week, and I consider myself having got off lightly compared to folks south of me.

[silentknight]

If I lived in Florida I would be making preps now.