Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

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Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[who knows what evil?]

My 14 yo grandson informed me yesterday that I was the only one one the planet that still used dial=up.

Afraid not...plenty of us out here still use dial-up. I'll consider broadband or other high-speed options when the price drops below 20 bucks a month. Until then...

[tiredoflaundry]

cripes.........

[dirtboy]

Charley was quite a different type of storm, but it was not expected to become as powerful as it did.

Plus, it crossed Cuba at a near-perpindicular direction, which didn't weaken it much. If this track holds up, Ernesto has to cross 6,500 foot mountains and then track a long ways down the spine of Cuba before coming out over water again.

I think it will shift a bit more northwards by the 5pm forecast. And Hispaniola has already weakened it a bit - pressure is up from the 5pm supplementary advisory.

Plus, it's just plain looking strange on the sat maps now.

[Coldwater Creek]

LOL!

We have a 1923 Victor Victrola that works wonderfully.

My husband is blind and can take it apart and put it back together in a flash.

[jdm]

Ernesto upgraded to hurricane status

Excerpt:

KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP) — Ernesto became the first hurricane of the Atlantic season Sunday with winds of 75 mph, and forecasters said it would strengthen as it headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, where it could menace a wide swath of coastline including New Orleans.

[dirtboy]

Could VA get hit hard? Also, we will be in VA Beach next Thurs.-Mon. could it happen around that time?

Forecasts are calling for it to be pulled to the NE about 25 north. That should take it out to sea so it would not pass anywhere near VA.

But that could change.

[Wilhelm Tell]

It looks like the Tampa Bay area is in the storm's sights. I don't think they have had a major storm in a long time. Of course a lot can change over a few days.

[who knows what evil?]

Don't forget, Charlie was supposed to hit Tampa.

Exactly. It changed direction at the last minute, and any other storm could do the same. No one has ANY idea where Ernesto is going until the last couple of hours, if then.

[Dog Gone]

Destin would be on the very western edge of the cone of probability this morning. The track certainly has been trending east over the past couple of days and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that could continue.

I think it could be a little too optimistic to expect eastern Cuba to severely damage the storm. The mountains there are not anything compared to the ones on Hispanola and Ernie would survive the trip. I think focusing on the steering currents is more important than on the intensity, because that could rapidly change after it enters the Gulf.

Charley went from a Category 2 to a Category 4 in four hours, if I remember correctly.

[F.J. Mitchell]

May Ernesto take a sharp turn north eastward and go out to sea before it starts looking dejavu Fran or one of those others that hit North Carolina like a run away train, a few years back.

[jrcats]

Well, I live in the 8 a.m. Thurs. area. Looks like I need to get some supplies & gas in case we have to move out.

[blam]

"We have a 1923 Victor Victrola that works wonderfully."

I have one of those too that my mom left me...but, I don't know what year it is. God bless your husband.

[Howlin]

*Sobbing*

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

"May Ernesto take a sharp turn north eastward and go out to sea before it starts looking dejavu Fran or one of those others that hit North Carolina like a run away train, a few years back."

Isn't this how Hurricane Isabel started out? I may have it mixed up, but this is reminding me of 2003

[SouthTexas]

I need to replace my puter here and at work, not looking forward to the "well I used to have that link". :)

[F.J. Mitchell]

Tsk, tsk, Howlin you are just tooooooo sensitive.

[Armedanddangerous]

I have dial up, because that's all we can get.

Verizon has high speed across the 4 lane highway from us, but they won't cross the highway with it...even though they have telephone lines here.

Doesn't make a lick of sense to me..frankly.

[dirtboy]

Isn't this how Hurricane Isabel started out?

Isabel was a Cape Verde storm that tracked due NW a long ways to the outer banks. Very different storm track.

[Armedanddangerous]

So folks..how is my friend in Palm BAY, Florida, going to fare in this??

Anyone have any ideas?

[smug]

By charting FR posters on this thread I'd say that there is no confidence in the models for Ernesto. I'm gonna go outside and draw the gulf coast with corn and see where my rooster Southern Confederacy starts pick'in. That will probably be as accurate as any other model this far out, and with Cuba in play.