The track shifted again to the east. Keep shiftin, baby. Now he's going right into the mountains of SE Cuba.
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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 27, 2006
...Ernesto continues northwestward toward the southwest peninsula of
Haiti...
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago
de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas...and Camaguey.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southern coast of
Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case
within the next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida
Keys...southern Florida...and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
...Should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located
near latitude 17.6 north...longitude 73.7 west or about 115 miles...
185 km...southwest of Port au Prince Haiti and about 205 miles...330
km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track...the center of Ernesto is expected to pass very near
the southwestern tip of Haiti this afternoon or early evening
...And be near the southeastern coast of Cuba Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ernesto is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast today and tonight...and
Ernesto could become a category 2 hurricane before it reaches the
coast of Cuba.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90
miles...150 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Tides of 4 to 6 feet above
normal along with large battering waves are expected on the southern
coast of eastern Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti...the Dominican
Republic...and portions of Cuba. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...are expected across portions of Jamaica.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...17.6 N...73.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
The track shifted again to the east. Keep shiftin, baby. Now he's going right into the mountains of SE Cuba.
see post 5.
Better. Governor Riley had a photo-op this past week and was seen/photographed on the big equipment that was pulling the last of the large shrimp boats back into the water at Bayou La Batre.
YIKES!! That's 100 kts over my house!!
The latest NHC advisory never gets the intensity over 85 kts.
Well, so much for South Texas getting any rain out of this. The drought goes on....
15 GMT 08/26/06 15.1N 71.2W 50 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/26/06 15.9N 71.6W 60 997 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/27/06 16.8N 72.7W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/06 17.0N 73.1W 70 993 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/06 17.0N 73.1W 70 990 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/06 17.6N 73.7W 75 997 Category 1 Hurricane
The jog wasn't nearly as pronounced as the one yesterday evening, but it's enough to take it into SE Cuba now instead of just south of the coast.
And the pressure is up as well. Good news.
That's a hypothetical surge model.
Looks like another Charley...
Check post #182. It was looking like deja Katrina yesterday. It was looking like deja Charley earlier this morning. Hard to tell what the deja is now.
What were the intensity forecasts for Charley this far out from U.S. landfall?
Here is another conglomerate link of alerts, data, and maps.
Charley was quite a different type of storm, but it was not expected to become as powerful as it did.
It is going more east than I thought. I had thought Destin but this may end up crossing Florida and heading up the east coast.
sw
Thanks--I remember that site from last year, needed the bookmark for the new 'puter.
"It is going more east than I thought. I had thought Destin but this may end up crossing Florida and heading up the east coast."
Could VA get hit hard? Also, we will be in VA Beach next Thurs.-Mon. could it happen around that time?
Today is the 1st time I've watched.
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