Posted on 08/25/2006 12:40:57 PM PDT by Bob J
In an Election 2006 conference sponsored by Paul Weyrich and the Free Congess Foundation this afternoon, panelist Robert Novak stated that based on his and others significant research he believed the GOP would lose between 27-30 seats in the House this fall.
Other panelists inlcuded John Fund, Kate O'Bierne and John Gizzy. A replay of the one hour conference can be heard at www.Rightalk.com , which webcast the event. click on "The Right Hour" logo.
Uh, No.
And his seat is not endangered.
Well Alaska, like Vermont, isn't exactly sending a huge delegation to Washington.
That's only partly true. I just watched it on C-span and Novak carefully said he wasn't personally making any predictions. He said GOP House and Senate members themselves made those statements to his reporter for the on-line Evans & Novak Report, and himself. I got down to No. 50 on this thread and nobody even came close to getting the basic facts right -- about par for the course on FR these days.
Looking at your sentence structure you got it right except the part about Novak himself "believing" the GOP would lose lots of seats. He may, and his outlook for the election is pretty grim (as is mine), but that isn't what he said. He did express great personal concern and alarm at the fact that impeached Federal Judge Alcee Hastings (now a Democrat House member) could become chairmain of the House Intelligence Committee if the Democrats regain power -- an event along with many others that terrifies me as well. Sounds like Ron Dellums redux.
Have you not heard about "Congress"?
Please. I beg you. Take your complaints about immigration to your Representatives. Stop blaming the President.
Congressional members ONLY can affect a change in immigration law.
Right on Right in Virginia!
And the President can enforce EXISTING LAW, which he has not done.
Congress is to blame- True.
So is the administration. And last I checked he was a representative of the people as well.
Also, for those wondering, I did a check around google and Hayworth seems to track anywhere between 5%-15% ahead in the polls in a Republican district with even NPR admitting it was an uphill climb for the Democrat. The 5% apparently from a Survey USA poll which has been unreliable in past. Scratch him off the endangered species.
Can't speak for 2002, but I know in 2004 Novak (correctly) predicted GOP gains in both the House and Senate.
The only reason I remember that is because that nimrod Begala predicted gains in both chambers and was nearly laughed off the Crossfire set by some GOP college group in the audience. It was absolutely priceless.
Sorry, but I think the GOP loses ground in both chambers but doesn't lose control of either - gas prices trump all, fairly or not, IMHO.
I'm sure I'll now be accused of being a seminar poster for daring to believe that the almighty GOP could possibly lose ground. :-)
As I recall the comments:
the two CT seats were fairly safe, despite being in a blue state. These people (Johnston and Shays) each won pretty handily last time, and have hewed "center" ever since.
Hostetler in IN always seems to be "in trouble" and always pulls out squeakers.
Hayworth in AZ is not, and never has been, in trouble
Heather Wilson in NM has taken some "moderate/lib" stands that enrage conservatives, but will probably insulate her from a lot of NM indies.
There are a couple of Dem seats in NC that, as I recall, were up for grabs, and Melissa Bean in IL is thought to be toast.
Ney was one of the seats in the USA Today "watch" list, but my GOP sources tell me that if it's Padgett on the ballot, which it now appears it is, she will win. All other Republicans in OH are safe.
If it wasn't for the judges, there would be no reason to have the Senate - the number of solid GOP senators can be counted on one hand.
Well maybe two hands, but no more then two.
West Coast Conservative, thanks for helping my blood pressure and sanity, with that Generic poll showing the Dems and Repubs neck and neck. I dont know whether to believe it, but then it boggles my mind that anyone this day and age would vote Democrat. They are wrong the economy, wrong on the war on terror, wrong on judges. Every problem we have, they have a proposal to make things worse.
These predictions of a Dem victory are extremely frightening.
"Can anyone name a few things this administration has done for CONSERVATIVES lately?"
Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Sam Alito, not bashing Israel like Carter and the Democrats have, tax cuts, more tax cuts, pension reform, tort reform, bankruptcy reform, an energy bill that gets us back into building nuclear power plants and brings sanity into building energy infrastructure, (finally) some more drilling for oil instead of eco-extremism running things ...
" Bush is running out the clock like his old man. We seem to do better out of power anyway."
Nonsense.
You forget the clinton and carter years at your peril!!!
Looks like I really “stirred the puddin”, as Neal would say. Hmmm. Personal attack. Must be a Democrat.
"pro illegal alien"
Er, I somehow *MISSED* this when the Republican House passed HR 4437, THE BEST ANTI-ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION BILL IN 20 YEARS!
That was passed by the House Republican conservative majority ... If people are sick and tired of 'pro illegal alien' stuff, then the radical Democrats who pushed for social security benefits for illegal aliens are the ones who will get their clocked clean. Not the conservatives.
If people are sick and tired of our wimps actions in the GWOT, then the anti-American leftists like Democrat Sherrod Brown, who voted against the Patriot Act and demagogues our attempts to fight the terrorists - he should get his clock cleaned.
The Democrats have moved majorly to the left for this election, following in the footsteps of Kos Kids and Howard Dean. This is McGovern redux.... Any victory by the Democrats will be a crushing defeat for conservatives, no matter how or why it came about (including if the defeat was due to conservatives staying home because they dont like any candidate).
"send money to a candidate who does not represent you?"
Well, I dont remember saying that. In fact I was referring to supporting in other ways. Furthermore, if I were advocating supporting a candidate that doesn't represent you, I wouldn't be so concerned to type what I did. Better to just let the dems win if that were what I was saying.
I don’t think we were short on laws just short on enforcement. If the INS and BP needed more money to enforce the existing laws then they should have asked Congress for the funds. Since these Republicans spend like Democrats, I’m sure they’d a got the money.
"He [Bush] simply refused to secure the borders or to take action against companies that violated the law and hired these illegals. While I don’t think that this constitutes an impeachable offense, I sure wouldn’t mind the Dims getting control of the House for the next two years. ... I sure wouldn’t mind the Dims getting control of the House for the next two years. Not the Senate, just the House. "
What a dimwitted and ignorant comment!!
You talk like your #1 issue is illegal immigration.
Fine. Then, if you had at least some knowledge of where the poltical bodies are these days, you would *know* that the one bulwark against amnesty for illegal aliens is the Republican House! HR4437 fixed the hole in enforcement of our laws, and no, you are not right that Bush is solely to blame for illegal aliens crossing the border, the entire enforcement of the laws is broken and has been for years, in part because of the meddling of *Judges* who trump the rule-of-law and grant hidden amnesties (HR 4437 would have fixed that), the failure of Congress to pay for full border seciruty (HR 4437 would have built 700 miles of barriers), and the failure of Congress to create verification mechanisms for employment that could stick (the 1986 reforms attempted but failed here).
It will be impossible to fix our immigration problems without a bill like HR4437. And it would be impossible to pass such as bill if Congress goes Democrat. Say hello to tens of millions of legalized illegals should we lose the House of Representatives to Democrats!
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