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The Ayatollah's Answer--Iran's nuclear strategy is to divide and conquer the U.N.
Wall Street Journal ^ | August 24, 2006

Posted on 08/23/2006 10:16:29 PM PDT by Ooh-Ah

...mullahs' strategy was paying dividends as Russia and China took the bait and urged further negotiations. These countries have their oil or nuclear energy deals with Tehran, and they don't seem to worry all that much about Islamic radicals getting the bomb. Perhaps they figure that's America's problem, or Israel's, though how an Islamic regime with a nuclear arsenal helps Russian or Chinese interests is a mystery.

...

... "no good options" available to pressure Iran, but that's more excuse than analysis. Iran's mullahs are unpopular at home and their citizens will notice if they are declared a global pariah state. Sanctions on travel by Iran's government officials, diplomats and sports teams may be largely symbolic, but such symbolism will not be missed on the Persian street.

Iran is also vulnerable economically. Sanctions on banks that deal with Iran can limit the regime's access to global credit markets for trade and other financing. ... Iran also imports some 40% of its refined gasoline. A ban on selling gasoline to Iran would surely lead to gas lines and other shortages there, with possible domestic political repercussions. And it is domestic discontent that the mullahs rightly fear the most.

The worry ... oil card in retaliation, ...sending world oil prices perhaps to $100 a barrel. But the mullahs can't eat oil. Amid other economic sanctions, they would need their income from oil sales more than ever. ... if the world...won't allow them to go nuclear, ...

...

No one wants a military confrontation with Iran, but those who want to avoid one have an obligation to show the mullahs that continuing on their current path will lead to isolation, economic suffering and worse. A U.N. Security Council that passes resolutions it refuses to enforce is itself a threat to global security.

(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: china; iran; irannukes; russia; un; wot
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To: Cindy

Thanks for correcting my mistake. Your are right it should be 'popcorn' and 'beer'. I'm practising my spelling. You have good 'checking engine' on FR. By the way, your comment suggests that you are much better at foreign languages than I am. Not everybody is a genius.


21 posted on 08/24/2006 3:23:05 AM PDT by pppp
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To: pppp

You're right.
No geniuses here.

By the way, the "'checking engine'" on FR is called a spell checker.


22 posted on 08/24/2006 3:34:02 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: Ooh-Ah
A U.N. Security Council that passes resolutions it refuses to enforce is itself a threat to global security.

Amen!

23 posted on 08/24/2006 4:01:48 AM PDT by libertylover (If it's good and decent, you can be sure the Democrat Party leaders are against it.)
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To: Cindy

the "'checking engine'" on FR is called a spell checker.

I didn't know that. Thanks one more time. I'm willing to learn.

Let's stop it here.


24 posted on 08/24/2006 4:02:57 AM PDT by pppp
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To: pppp

By Mullahs not thinking rationally, I mean the Mullahs think in terms of their own self interest, not the broader good of Iran or Iranian people. Self interest and self preservation are particularly applicable to totalitarian regimes such as IRI.

That is why IRI steals & squanders Iran's national wealth (more interested in providing support to terrorist organizations such as Hamas and IRI created Hezbollah), and maims, starves, prostitutes, beats, jails and kills its own citizens and plays power games externally with the West to maintain power and control.

"Compare the power they have with the power and influences the clergy has in western countries."

There is no comparison because the clergy in the West are not in charge of a government of a country.


25 posted on 08/24/2006 4:14:48 AM PDT by odds
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To: Ooh-Ah

keep hearin that organized betting exists for possibility OF future events. where can i place a bet on possibility of military action on iran? BIG TX


26 posted on 08/24/2006 4:28:13 AM PDT by 1234 (WHO is Responsible for ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS?)
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To: pppp

Welcome to FR.

The way the Iranian regime has "bought" the Russians and Chinese is in the way of deals, mutual investments. So, not buying in the sense that Iran owns them.

Iran also knows that their trade partners, Russia & China, don't adhere to the rules of political correctness, and their much smaller country of Iran would be toast immediately, if they ever tried to pull anything militarily on China or Russia. Also, China & Russia have no problems disintegrating Iran even if they only feel threatened by Iran, and Iran knows that. They know there won't be a John Kerry or Al Gore running either of those countries anytime soon.

btw - your english is very good.


27 posted on 08/24/2006 4:32:12 AM PDT by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: odds
'By Mullahs not thinking rationally, I mean the Mullahs think in terms of their own self interest,'

In this case I can't agree more.

'There is no comparison because the clergy in the West are not in charge of a government of a country.'

My point was that in the West the clergy can't even dream of running a country, so obviously their are not capable of obtaining such riches and influences as the Mullahs enjoy now. For people accustomed to this kind of power, moving to the position Christian clergy has in western countries may be viewed as enormous step down the social ladder.
28 posted on 08/24/2006 4:35:20 AM PDT by pppp
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To: nuconvert
The way the Iranian regime has "bought" the Russians and Chinese is in the way of deals, mutual investments.

I hope that you are right, but I have had this awful thought that it's not Iran that plays China and Russia, but the other way round. I mean that maybe Iran is a pawn. I still think that Iran is too poor to play such extensive games.

Thank you for your kind word. I'm working hard on my English so I truly appreciate it. But I have to admit that the mistakes Cyntia laughed out so loudly shouldn't have happened.
29 posted on 08/24/2006 4:57:56 AM PDT by pppp
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To: pppp

Iran isn't as poor as it should be, because instead of spreading itself too thin, the regime spends the money it should be spending on its people and infrastructure, on outside "investments" (like the ones you mentioned)
Besides all the oil money, they get lots of $ from drugs. And of course when they run out, they print (counterfeit) more. ;~ )


Don't be so hard on yourself. I rarely use the spell-checker here, so I make typos and spelling mistakes. Everyone does. Some typos are funnier than others.


30 posted on 08/24/2006 5:10:42 AM PDT by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: pppp
Iranian couldn't buy Russia's and China's votes for a simple reason they can't afford it. [It's like saying that Argentina or Indonesia bought US vote]. I my judgment the picture if Iran as o loose cannon is seriously flawed.

China has been signing long term oil contracts with Iran. As the world's demand for oil continues to increase in China and India, the cushion between supply and demand has narrowed. Countries will be competing to get a reliable source of oil. China has been selling arms to Iran. Russia has been selling nuclear technology to Iran along with military equipment. It has been building the nuclear reactors. The bottom line is that Iran can and has influenced the Russian and Chinese votes on the UNSC. Iraq did something similarly with the Russian and French votes. Remember the Oil for Food program?

1. Significant finances go to Iraq. Don't kid yourself filling the void created by removal of Sadam [the void that US refuse to fill because it is afflicted with political-correctness-madness syndrome - a lethal infectious disease transmitted by left-leaning intellectual elites] was pretty expensive, Especially in the face of long-lasting Arab-Persian distrust, and the memory of the bloody Iraq-Iran war.

Iran can afford it. The increase in oil revenues doesn't hurt either. As long as wealth is concentrated in the hands of the corrupt mullahs, they can spend the money any way they want. The Iranian economy is in poor shape, but the Iranian regime is able to mute domestic opposition and pressure unlike what would happen in democracies. The Soviet Union was really a third world country, but the leadership used its scarce resources to build up a world class military machine while the rest of the country suffered.

2. Hezbollah is also quite expensive pet. The toys used against Israel were very costly and you have to remember that a lot of money was spent to buy the support of Shiite population of south Lebanon [hospitals, schools, TV station, pensions for poor and family of martyrs - it's like financing a state without tax revenue]

Mere peanuts for the Iranians. Iran produces about 4 million bbls of oil a day and sells most of it. That works out to daily revenues of over $250 million a day.

3. Expensive nuclear program. There is a good reason why authoritarian governments in poor countries don't indulge themselves in this way.

Iran is not a poor country. It has the world's 35th largest economy [22nd in terms of PPP]. The corrupt and repressive leadership can establish its own priorties and fund them accordingly.

6. Internal situation. Young urban dwellers are getting restive. They won't put up with deteriorating quality of life. Some money have to be spend on them.

There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is not popular or supported by the majority of the populace. However, as Stalin, Castro, etc. have proven, you can in a police state control the opposition.

If we take into account that Iranian economy is in a shambles [an oil rich country that have to import gasoline!!], we have to wonder how to the hell it can afford this kind of policy???!!

You are viewing the situation through a Western prism. The Iranian regime can do what it wants, including setting priorities on how it spends its money. Iran is not running a deficit economy like we are. In fact, they hold surpluses.

31 posted on 08/24/2006 5:59:02 AM PDT by kabar
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To: JohnBovenmyer; Ooh-Ah
Do they think a post-Mullah Iran won't want to sell oil? Get rid of the political instability and I bet their infrastructure will improve, their production will increase and their oil price will tend to fall

Maybe they look at how Iraq has gone and think, hey!, "post-Mullah Iran will be unstable, won't respect our current Sino-Persian contracts, production will fall, and oil prices will increase even further."

Maybe they think Iran would end up with a bunch of Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr's running around in chaos. Perhaps even Afghanistan doesn't reassure them too much.

Appeasement may be weak and wrong, but it may be logical for short term goals of 10-20 years.

China and Russia are NOT concerned about a Persian nuke threat because the USA is going to play the cop FOR THEM as needed when the time comes.

Walk in their cheap-chinese slippers for a mile and maybe you'll understand why they ain't hopping on the 'coalition of the willing' bandwagon. It ain't ICBM rocket science.

32 posted on 08/24/2006 6:11:37 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: pppp

pppp. Don't listen to Cindy. She has no thoughts, just Spam posts. She's not actually a person, just a spam-bot that plasters a pre-assembled mass of links without relevance to the current thread.

You, on the other hand, bring a different perspective that can help people expand their arguments beyond the dull: "Nuke Mecca, haha."

There are only one or two posters on FR that can speak/post in arabic or persian or any language other than English, so your effort is superior to most. Keep up the good work.


33 posted on 08/24/2006 6:22:09 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: nuconvert; pppp
Iran would be toast immediately, if they ever tried to pull anything militarily on China or Russia.

Exactly! USA used to have this threat. Murtha & Co. have depleted our deterrent.

34 posted on 08/24/2006 6:26:23 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: Ooh-Ah

The Russians And Chinese want everyone to have a bomb
I agree......... every farm silo in America should have a missle with multiple warheads and computerized aiming programs. Most silos go unused now anyway. A football for every farmer. Then lets negotiate free trade for our ag exports. /s


35 posted on 08/24/2006 6:28:19 AM PDT by stocksthatgoup ("Is it real? Or is it Reuters?")
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To: Always Independent
Unlike Iran, China actually has diplomatic relations with the U.S.

Your idea of boycotting Beijing 2008 is rude to the Americans who train hard to win gold.

36 posted on 08/24/2006 7:08:08 AM PDT by Abd al-Rahiim
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To: pppp
Despite your spelling, I thought your analysis was very interesting. Thanks for posting it.
37 posted on 08/24/2006 7:47:02 AM PDT by Red Boots
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To: Abd al-Rahiim

Maybe we are getting a little sick and tired of hearing death to America and death to Israel! We are both here to stay so they better get it through their thick heads. As far as the chicoms are concerned. They want to be considered a major power. Maybe they need to earn that respect.


38 posted on 08/24/2006 9:50:01 AM PDT by Always Independent
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To: Always Independent

Ditto That.


39 posted on 08/24/2006 12:52:39 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Always Independent
In your opinion, what would the PRC have to do in order to become a true major player?
40 posted on 08/24/2006 2:33:04 PM PDT by Abd al-Rahiim
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