[AntiGuv]

This puts a swift end to that!

MN Supreme Court rules in Gutknecht's favor

As for the 1974 question, Nixon resigned on August 8 of 1974 and the Ford pardon followed on September 8 of 1974, so that timeframe was actually the worse ratings that the GOP has pretty much had ever, probably including even the Hoover collapse.

My personal view is that this Gallup Poll is running counter to the other polls, but there is no question that it more resembles the '96 to '04 timeframe than it does '74, '82, '86, or a reverse '94. If this kind of thing keeps up, the worm will have certainly turned. :)

As for predictions, my ratings are not based on generic poll figures except in the most indirect way, and my latest projection would be a 12 seat loss for the GOP in the House and a 3 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate.

[Torie]

The GOP just got one seat, I thought might go down the dumper. Your 3 seat senate prediction seems about right, and the House prediction would seem right, buth then I saw the Pubbie was even in a poll in CO-7. If that is a real poll (no partisan movement from baseline, maybe a slight GOP plus), it may be that if there is partisan movement, from 2004, we will have to look to the Great Lake states and the Northeast. The normal partisan divides outside that region, seem to be holding, outside of special cases like say in Ashland and environs, (except in Michigan, which has its own thing going).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"As for predictions, my ratings are not based on generic poll figures except in the most indirect way, and my latest projection would be a 12 seat loss for the GOP in the House and a 3 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate."

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While your predictions are certainly not "based" on generic poll figures, Bush approval ratings or other "national mood" indicators, I do think they have colored your perception of most House and Senate races. Without a heavy anti-GOP undertow, I think most of your predictions would move one spot towards the GOP (e.g., from "Toss-Up" to "Lean GOP," etc.). Let's face it, if Bush's approval ratings had been in the 40s all summer, the seats held by Thelma Drake and Richard Pombo would be considered "Safe GOP" and the seats held by Melissa Bean and Jim Marshall would be would be considered "Toss-Ups" or maybe even "Lean GOP."