"As for predictions, my ratings are not based on generic poll figures except in the most indirect way, and my latest projection would be a 12 seat loss for the GOP in the House and a 3 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate."
While your predictions are certainly not "based" on generic poll figures, Bush approval ratings or other "national mood" indicators, I do think they have colored your perception of most House and Senate races. Without a heavy anti-GOP undertow, I think most of your predictions would move one spot towards the GOP (e.g., from "Toss-Up" to "Lean GOP," etc.). Let's face it, if Bush's approval ratings had been in the 40s all summer, the seats held by Thelma Drake and Richard Pombo would be considered "Safe GOP" and the seats held by Melissa Bean and Jim Marshall would be would be considered "Toss-Ups" or maybe even "Lean GOP."