The GOP just got one seat, I thought might go down the dumper. Your 3 seat senate prediction seems about right, and the House prediction would seem right, buth then I saw the Pubbie was even in a poll in CO-7. If that is a real poll (no partisan movement from baseline, maybe a slight GOP plus), it may be that if there is partisan movement, from 2004, we will have to look to the Great Lake states and the Northeast. The normal partisan divides outside that region, seem to be holding, outside of special cases like say in Ashland and environs, (except in Michigan, which has its own thing going).
The problem with assessing the broader significance of the CO-07 poll is that it followed a very acrimonious Dem primary and features a very well-funded GOP nominee (as I've mentioned previously, in both aspects). It did nonetheless tip the seat from Lean Dem to Toss Up in my ratings.