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Shocker: Democrat lead in US House race drops to only two points (the worm is turning Smithers)
Human Events ^ | 8/22/06 | Election Dog

Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame

And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.

In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.

According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.

(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006polls; democrats; hezbocrats; midterms; sorocrats
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To: LS

The Ney seat is apparently safe... our preferred candidate will make the ballot.

The distinction between RVs and LVs can be as high as 7% favorable swing toward the GOP, not just 2-3 points as indicated above.

If we are within 2 points on the generic ballot now, we will hold the House comfortably in November. As to "oversampling Republicans," this has never happened in polling history.


101 posted on 08/22/2006 8:57:48 AM PDT by mwl1
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To: Wombat101

You have a great point. And let's not forget about the pheonom of folks just no longer having "land lines", only cell phones!! We have one land line in our home, but only for the purpose of our computer. Even with high-speed connection you need a land line, but we never answer it, everyone who calls that number has to be a tele-marketer.


102 posted on 08/22/2006 9:01:23 AM PDT by SaintDismas (.)
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To: chuckles
...A terror attack in the states would almost cinch a Repub win in November. The Dems would scream, "You see, we still aren't safe!"...

...no, they'll scream that the attack was planned and executed by Rove and company - to affect the outcome of the election...

*big smile*

103 posted on 08/22/2006 9:01:45 AM PDT by aligncare (Proud 40 year nonmember of the ACLU.)
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To: Wombat101
I guess you missed the part where I said I wasn't a statistican and I couldn't prove my assertions, or did you get all red in the face that you stopped reading before you got there? ..........

My.my. Why dost thou protest so?

I read ALL the way through your first post to the END where you also said: "I can't prove any of this. I'm not a statistician. I just feel it in my "gut". Feel free to flame me, if you wish."

I just took you at your word...which I guess you didn't mean.

but your second post seems to run with the same thread - a resentment of women who are 'stay-at-home' moms. You seem lump them all into

"welfare queens...attachment to the government teat."

and you seem to have a seething resentment that you, as a

"40 year old man" " who's breaking his a** working 70 hour weeks so that his parent's generation can rob him blind in their old age). "

Further, you state:

"other than the two groups we've discussed and the welfare queens, who else would you assume is at home to answer a load of fool poll questions during daylight hours? "

Well, If you had read my answer to you - or to quote you:

or did you get all red in the face that you stopped reading before you got there? .........."

I gave you the other examples of mothers who CHOOSE to be full time moms to their children - and why. Did you not understand or did you get all red in the face that you stopped reading before you got there?

Post script: You needn't get all het up and feel you need to respond again. I'm not interested in the opinion of one so deeply opinionated. I responded merely for other readers who may not have read your first post and not know where I was coming from...Have a good life - altho', given your lifelong companion, that might prove difficult...

104 posted on 08/22/2006 9:02:40 AM PDT by maine-iac7 ("...but you can't fool all of the people all of the time." Lincoln)
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To: mwl1

No kidding. I think the drive-by media would choke to death if they contemplated these numbers.


105 posted on 08/22/2006 9:05:03 AM PDT by LS
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To: teddyballgame

I think Lieberman's primary defeat has a lot to do with this. As a party, you can't nominate someone to be Vice President, and then two years later fire him without exposing yourself to be insane.


106 posted on 08/22/2006 9:06:31 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: LS

We need to give these numbers greater exposure, b/c the MSM is deliberately burying this information to depress GOP turnout and optimism.


107 posted on 08/22/2006 9:10:08 AM PDT by mwl1
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To: Eagles Talon IV
They really do live in a fantasy world where they believe if they wish hard enough for something it will magically happen for them.

Wishing is the liberal equivalent of prayer. LOL!

108 posted on 08/22/2006 9:12:00 AM PDT by webheart (Have a nice day!)
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To: Enterprise

Lament has helped the Republicans more than anyone since Dan Rather.


109 posted on 08/22/2006 9:12:51 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (NYT Headline: 'Protocols of the Learned Elders of CBS: Fake But Accurate, Experts Say.')
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To: Coop

Great news! This is indication that on election night, we won't need as much booze as we thought we would.


110 posted on 08/22/2006 9:20:07 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: mwl1

I don't think we will really have to worry about turnout. I have a feeling that there will be at least one more big attack before the election. The jihadists just can't "hep it."


111 posted on 08/22/2006 9:21:31 AM PDT by LS
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To: teddyballgame; All

But but!!! But... the Democrats are supposed to win the House and Senate back!!! What the!!! :) Uh huh. Quiet, everyone hear that? That's the sound of the rubber meeting the road. Reality cometh. Get the champaign ready. :)


112 posted on 08/22/2006 9:31:19 AM PDT by TexasPatriot8 (Irrational is the person who is offended by the mention of a God that he doesn't believe exists.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I've never been particularly worried about the upcoming elections. We go through this every cycle.


113 posted on 08/22/2006 9:32:50 AM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: RinaseaofDs

Six years later


114 posted on 08/22/2006 9:33:26 AM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: mwl1

Excellent point. This wont appear in any msm, you can count on it.


115 posted on 08/22/2006 9:41:19 AM PDT by ProudCopperhead
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To: RinaseaofDs

You may be correct. Lieberman-Lamont will be seen in the mirror as the turning point in our 2006 fortunes. By dumping Lieberman, the RATS may have thrown away their best shot at recapturing either or both chambers.

For the record, Lieberman was the VP candidate 6 years ago, not two years ago as you stated.


116 posted on 08/22/2006 9:42:40 AM PDT by mwl1
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To: teddyballgame

I just saw gas for $2.59, that's got to help a lot.


117 posted on 08/22/2006 9:43:24 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (The biggest blog of the Ohio governor race http://blackwellvstrickland.blogspot.com)
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To: ProudCopperhead; mwl1

These numbers were put out by USA Today.


118 posted on 08/22/2006 9:46:40 AM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: Coop
We go through this every cycle.

Indeed. The MSM has an institutional bias against either party that is in power. That said and far beyond this threshold, they hate Republicans on an ideological basis.

I have always believed that if the RATS experienced for a week what Republicans suffer 24/7/365 from the MSM, they would all have a nervous breakdown. There is simply no comparison of the skepticism, disdain, bias, and outright hatred inflicted upon GOP candidates.

119 posted on 08/22/2006 9:47:52 AM PDT by mwl1
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To: Coop

Sure, but have you seen these numbers picked up by the networks or other major newspapers? They are being buried.


120 posted on 08/22/2006 9:48:39 AM PDT by mwl1
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