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The Fertility Gap
Wall Street Journal ^ | 22 AUG 06 | Arthur C. Brookes

Posted on 08/22/2006 12:58:44 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth

The midterm election looms, and once again efforts begin afresh to increase voter participation. It has become standard wisdom in American politics that voter turnout is synonymous with good citizenship...--snip--Simply put, liberals have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a result.

(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gongshow; politics; roeeffect
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Interesting, although I note he doesn't address the effect of immigration (if there is a discernable effect).
1 posted on 08/22/2006 12:58:44 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

Immigrants are doing what they have been doing for almost a hundred years.

Most don't vote when they get here.

Then they move from minimum wage non-union jobs to more union jobs ans semi-skilled jobs.Then most vote Democrat.

Then they begin to join the middle class. Then they start to vote Repulican.


2 posted on 08/22/2006 1:14:02 AM PDT by Reaganez
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

But the problem the liberal smaller families, they are able to spend more money on their child's education. Giving them the fast track to the better schools, the better connections and the better jobs post-graduation. In the workforce they will be able to devote more time to the job and be able to take more risks than the man with 5 mouths to feed.

In 40 years we could wind up as the only nation where the economic conservatives are poor and the liberals are rich.


3 posted on 08/22/2006 1:21:22 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: Hong Kong Expat

IOW, you think life is a damned if we do, damned if we don't catch-22 scenario?


4 posted on 08/22/2006 1:34:09 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the RINOs in terror before me.)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth
liberals have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a result

neuter them

;-)

5 posted on 08/22/2006 1:36:45 AM PDT by beyond the sea (Is it August 22nd anywhere yet? - It's five o'clock somewhere.)
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To: Hong Kong Expat
Baloney!

Lots of Conservatives do exactly what you claim Liberals do and FWIW, a lot of Liberals don't do what you claim they do.

6 posted on 08/22/2006 1:37:04 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth
The CIA Fact Book shows birth rate at 14.14 per thousand while the immigration rate is 3.18 per 1000. Add to this that the birth rate of immigrants is much higher than the native born.

Also the median age in the US continues to rise, now about age 36.

7 posted on 08/22/2006 1:56:27 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

Well, we have to remember, increases in productivity will reduce the number of middle and upper income jobs available, while at the same time the talent pool is going to expand to the entire world.

A friend of mine in Shanghai (native Chinese), she's got a 10 year old son, he's going to school and tutoring about 45 hours a week not including homework. And he's been learning English for the last 3 years. She's a single mother, two parent families are spending even more time and money.

Community College and just being in the General Population of State U ain't going to cut it anymore.


8 posted on 08/22/2006 2:14:10 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: nopardons

You might want to read this.
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/RRR.winter94.5.education/The_Family.html

Large family size is a drag on student achievement.


9 posted on 08/22/2006 2:19:13 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

He who has the most children wins.


10 posted on 08/22/2006 2:23:33 AM PDT by vladimir998 (Ignorance of Scripture is ignorance of Christ. St. Jerome)
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To: Hong Kong Expat

Your solution doesn't seem to be working out so well for Europe.


11 posted on 08/22/2006 2:25:20 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the RINOs in terror before me.)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth
Europe is set up quite well for the long run, that's why the Euro is doing so well against the US Dollar.

They know the mass low skilled employment jobs are going to Asia (then Africa), they are better positioned for high value information based jobs in the future.
12 posted on 08/22/2006 2:30:44 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

The roe effect.


13 posted on 08/22/2006 2:39:10 AM PDT by Hydroshock ( (Proverbs 22:7). The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.)
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To: Hong Kong Expat

Europe is set up quite well for the long run, are they?

That's a rosy scenario.


14 posted on 08/22/2006 2:40:09 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the RINOs in terror before me.)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

wow many great posts on this one I enjoyed reading them


15 posted on 08/22/2006 2:41:33 AM PDT by StoneWall Brigade (AMERICA LAND OF THE FREE BECASUE OF THE BRAVE!)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

You don't need a large population anymore.

Their industries aren't going to be bogged down by health costs and pensions.


16 posted on 08/22/2006 2:43:06 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: Hong Kong Expat
Their industries aren't going to be bogged down by health costs and pensions.

It's alternate reality time. Europe not bogged down by health costs and pensions?

And you completely ignore cultural factors. Guest workers, Muslim immigration, that recent unpleasantness in France.
17 posted on 08/22/2006 2:51:37 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the RINOs in terror before me.)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

The Governments are bogged down, not the businesses. But Governments don't create wealth.

Those cultural factors aren't as big as you think. We are going through that with the Mexicans, Asians and Muslims as well.


18 posted on 08/22/2006 2:55:32 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: Hong Kong Expat
The Governments are bogged down, not the businesses. But Governments don't create wealth

Pray tell, what do governments do when they are "bogged down"?

And what effect does that have on those businesses that create wealth.
19 posted on 08/22/2006 3:07:56 AM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the RINOs in terror before me.)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

Oh yeah, how are american car companies doing?


20 posted on 08/22/2006 3:10:31 AM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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