Posted on 08/16/2006 1:53:05 PM PDT by jveritas
Making the decision and taking the initiative are almost always a major advantage in battle; even a wrong decision, properly executed according to a good primary or contingent plan, can achieve great success. Israel could have done that, but failed to act decisively, and surrendered the initiative to its adversary.
And they executed their contingency plan with surprising, shocking, efficiency, deploying two weapons that Israel could not answer effectively. First was a type of antitank weapon that should not have been there, according to international agreements. That it was in fact present is a clear indication of the reliability of such agreements and understandings. The second weapon was the speed and skill of the propagandists, who coopted the world press with a snap of their fingers and successfully directed it against Israel, broadside and full-bore.
But the second weapon does not work unless used according to a specific tactical deployment, which Hezbollah has mastered and Israel cannot counter. Hezbollah war crimes are continuous and blatant, not even barely concealed - they hide behind civilians, and dare Israel to provide them with ever more victims to parade before the compliant press. The deliberate execution of this tactic has been documented many times. Corpse recycling and ambulance parades are perhaps the most egregious examples, but the press response to these is even more revealing.
And Olmert responds by dithering, the worst POSSIBLE response. But it's what happens when you elect a jellyfish to do a man's job....
I cannot understand why the US, Israel, Britain, and other nations that value freedom (forget the French and the sissy nations of Europe), and are willing to fight terrorists with manly vigor, do not come to the same conclusion. And I cannot understand why the Arab Sunni nations are not willing to prevent Syria from furthering Iran's agenda in the Middle East. If the US is to succeed in Iraq, it must stop Assad. If the Israelis are to every have peace, they must stop Assad. If the Lebanese are to ever be free, they must stop Assad. Assad is the linchpin of terror.
My greatest fear is that Hizballah can take over Lebanon, not because they are that strong, indeed they are much weaker now than before Jul 12 th as I said in the original post, but because of the weakness and fear Lebanese of the Lebanese government. Also it is very possible that if the other Lebanese factions think that the government cannot or not willing to protect them from Hizballah, then they will arm to defend themselves, and Lebanon will be back to a terrible civil war.
Great post and funny one as well :)
CHAPTER ELEVEN The Secret of Victory
by
George S. Patton, Jr.
....................................
( On false analysis)
Due either to super-abundant egotism and uncontrolled enthusiasm or else to limited powers of observation of the activities of other arms, these people advocate in the most fluent and uncompromising manner the vast FUTURE potentialities of their own weapon. In the next war, so they say, all of the enemy will be crushed, gassed, bombed, or otherwise speedily exterminated, depending for the method of his death upon whether the person declaiming belongs to the tank, gas, air, or other special service.
Due to the (unfortunate) fact that many of them possess considerable histrionic ability and much verbosity, they attract public attention. The appeal of their statements is further strengthened because, in the first place, they deal invariably in mechanical devices which intrigue the simple imagination. In the next place the novelty of their schemes and assertions has a strong news interest which insures their notice by the press. This last fact is of peculiar advantage to the present crop of specialists because in the last war the maximum press activity was on the western front. Here the preliminary cavalry activities had ended before the shock of the world cataclysm had been sufficiently dissipated to permit detailed accounts, while due to necessary restrictions, correspondents could not witness infantry fights in detail and therefore filled their articles with accounts of the noisy or noisome activities of the special arms whose preliminary activities they could see and whose novelty assured public interest.
...............................................................................................................................................................................................................
The fixed determination to acquire the warrior soul, and have acquired it to either conquer or perish with honor, is the SECRET OF VICTORY.
G. S. Patton, Jr., Major
March 26, 1926
According to Patton Israel lost. Hezbollah won, for it is they who decided to conquer or perish with their own definition of honor, twisted as it may be. Israel failed because for the first time in its history, it abandoned the strength of its people, to conquer or perish. To say Israel won is to weaken them further.
Israel Lost According to Caroline Glick,JERUSALEM POST ^ | Aug. 13, 2006 | Her analysis is undeniable.
[http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682688/posts?page=89#89]
The last thing we need is not to look at the truth, and run hoping that Victory is ours so powerfully that we grasp everywhere to cobble together one.
Israel Lost. Get over it. Time to move on.
America must prepoare to fight Iran, and if it does not, we also will fail in dedicating ourselves to conquer or perish, as is necessary for Victory in War.
Thanks.
In this case NO, but I am addressing the current war.
I look for a strike at the Iranian/Syrian head before too long.
Do I have any reason for this prediction. Nope. Just common sense tells me there is a LOT more to this than meets the eye.
The best thing for israel in all of this is everyone can see what happens to a country which elects a liberal lawyer
Let everyone think hezbollah has won the war. The Hezbolla fingers will wither and die once the heads are decapitated
No blue tarps for Lebanon. All the houses will be rebuilt in a few weeks. New roads, new power supply, new infrastructure.
Anyone can say they won and define it any way they wish. Too bad our elites don't have a clue!
thank you again for all you do.
Excellent analysis. When one looks at the objective reality before and after the war, it is hard to make the case that Hezbollah was the winner. Israel is not returning to the status quo ante and more resolutions are on the way.
I think we both agree that the fruits of victory (or defeat) have yet to be distributed from this war.
Well said. I wish someone would explain to me how the hezbos are better off today than they were a month ago.
Well Done.
In agreement
BTTT
"Old rule: if the insurgent doesn't lose, he wins.
In a few months, they will be rearmed, replenished and rarin' to go.
And Israel?"
Currently allowing the UN to botch the ceasefire with the Hezbos, literally as we speak.
Meanwhile the World MSM has declared the REAL combatants: Syria and Iran (big winners in the MS Press).
Many political and military analysts in the West jumped to the conclusion that Israel did not win because they were not able to totally eliminate Hizballah, but those analysts failed to recognize that Israel main goal was not the total annihilation of Hizballah, but rather dealing them a very severe blow in South Lebanon and change the dynamic of Southern Lebanon toward Israel favor.
Israel loudly proclaimed to the world that eliminating/crushing/disarming the Hezzies was its goal. Even if this wasn't the real goal, Israel suffered a tremendous PR loss on this score.
The losses suffered by the Hezzies, both in absolute and relative terms, were indeed much heavier than Israel suffered, and by a large degree as you've stated. However, this is more of a tactical victory than a strategic one. This is because the Israelis are going to leave S. Lebanon soon, and no one else will be around that has the capability and the inclination to disarm the Hezzies - or to prevent them from re-arming with Syrian and Iranian weapons. So, IMHO, Israel has taken a great tactical victory and thrown it away (unless, of course, the ceasefire breaks down and Israel completes the job it started).
I'd agree that the Hezzies suffered a bit of a propaganda defeat by not being able to stop Israel at the border, but the fact that they can claim to have fought the IDF to a standstill for a month (and have that claim believed by their target audience, ignorant and easily swayed young extremist males) is a massive victory which outweighs the failure to keep Israel out of Lebanon completely.
Israel also failed to get its two kidnapped soldiers back - which is another image/propaganda disaster (to say nothing of how those guys or their families feel about it).
Sure, Israel accomplished a few things, including a very substantial degradation of the Hezzies' forces. But it also failed to get its people back and to deal a deathblow to an implacable enemy - a blow which it could have easily delivered. Further, Iran and (more to the point) Syria were not punished in any way for supplying weapons to the Hezzies...which means that they will continue to do the same thing without any hesitation or fear. A destroyed Syrian Air Force, a largely destroyed Syrian Army and Damascus in ruins would have elicited yawns from the rest of the world, yet would have greatly enhanced Israel's "Don't phuck with us, EVER" deterrence.
Applying Patton's analysis to this situation can only result in a wrong conclusion. Patton was not addressing a guerilla war
Like Vietnam? We win every battle, but lost Uncle Walter and lost the war. And now Iraq is compared to it. Sorry dealing Hezzbollah a serious blow is not defeating them. We delt Nazi's and Japanese serious blows in battles, but they did not give up. Israel lost this round and humiliatingly so to the point that Hezzbollah is now refueling for round 2 and if Olmert is still in power, they'll get theie noses bloodied again and further humiliated to embolden all the Arabs to crush Israel once and for all!
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