Mexico's Federal District Governor Warns Conflict with National Government "Near" (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 15, 2006 | El Universal Redaction ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

Encinas warns that an institutional political crisis is near

He indicates that the GDF¹ will not permit elements of the Federal Preventive Police to go out from their assigned perimiters.

The Head of Government of the Federal District, Alejandro Encinas, warned that [the country] is on the brink of passing from a post-electoral conflict to an institutional political crisis.

"I believe that there are three objectives in the situation which our country is living through. I believe that we are passing from a post-electoral conflict to an institutional political crisis. Whoever does not want to see it as such, commits a serious and profound error," Encinas said in a press conference, reproduced on [the radio program] Reporte 98.5.

Encinas said that his administration will not permit elements of the Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to leave the perimeters which are assigned to them.²

"Any intervention of the PFP outside the scope of federal jurisdiction has to be authorized by the city government and we are not going to accept any intervention in which the city government is not consulted."

Encinas questioned the action of the PAN party for not endorsing those elected and serving PRD legislators who suffered injuries yesterday when being dislodged after attempting to erect a protest encampment in front of the Chamber of Deputies.³

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Translator's Notes:

¹The "GDF" is the acronym for the Gobierno del Distrito Federal, or the "Federal District Government," which comprises most of Mexico City.

²When Encinas mentions "perimeters which are assigned to them," he is referring to cordons which the Federal District Government police have erected around the protest encampments at the center of Mexico City to separate the Federal Preventive Police from Lopez Obrador's supporters. Encinas, who is a member of Lopez Obrador's PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) party, has been severely criticized in the Mexican media for shirking his responsibilities as Federal District Governor to exercise the law and maintain order in the city by lending the official support of the Federal District Government to the protestors, who have effectively shut down Mexico City's central business district, with enormous financial losses to many businesses there, especially hotels and restaurants, and disrupted traffic and the normal free right of passage of the citizenry. Encinas is effectively telling the Mexican federal government that they may not exercise police authority to open the downtown business district of the capital to normal commerce.

³Yesterday the Federal Preventive Police used tear gas and riot control to thwart an attempt by Lopez Obrador supporters, who were led by a number of currently-serving and newly-elected legislators, to erect a protest encampment on the grounds of the national legislature.

[StJacques]

I'm a little busy today so I do not have time to give a careful news brief to everyone in the way I normally do citing references, so I'm just going to put some comments up which recapitulate what I've been reading on the Mexican news sites today.

The aftermath of the confrontation yesterday at the Mexican National Congress has raised the volume of rhetoric throughout Mexico City today. Lopez Obrador's PRD party is extremely upset and their criticism of Fox and the federal government does not show much restraint. They are obviously trying to use the event as a rallying cry to mobilize their supporters, who have become fewer and fewer in number since the PRD shut down the business district two weeks ago. The federal government has defended itself for its actions, which they claim are necessary to ensure the normal operation of one of the country's key institutions, the national Congress, free from any interference by protestors. And other organs of the federal government are warning that they may take action if Encinas's Federal District Government does not act soon to break up the protest encampments in the city center.

There is good reason to question whether Encinas may be bluffing in his threat to use the police agencies of the Federal District Government to resist any police action by the federal government. In a poll whose results were released by the Mexico City newspaper El Universal yesterday (thank you rovenstinez), Mexico City residents, many of whom identified themselves as PRD voters in the recent presidential election, voiced very strong disapproval of the shutdown of the center of the city and of Encinas's handling of the affair. A noticeable number of those polled stated they would not vote for the PRD again. What is clear is that the PRD is losing support in the Federal District as a result of their recent actions, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the Federal District populace will support action by the federal government to clear the encampments and restore order and normal citizen flow through the city's center.

On several occasions in threads over the past six weeks following the Mexican election I have posted what I consider to be possible scenarios in which the whole situation could come unraveled, leading to violent confrontation. One of those scenarios I have mentioned is a confrontation between the Mexican federal government and the Federal District Government (it is a "state" in fact) over the exercise of police authority in Mexico City, given that the federal government is controlled by the PAN party and the Federal District Government is controlled by Lopez Obrador's PRD. We are right up to the edge of this scenario unfolding right now. And my best guess is that Encinas is going to back down here, but that is only speculation on my part.

I'll try to stop in on this thread later to put up some more news in which I cite sources. Gotta get back to work now.

[StJacques]

A Mex-Elex ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to follow other translated articles I have put up on the Mexican post-election controversy can locate them using the unique keyword -- STJTRANSLATION -- in the forum's "keyword search" option (or simply click the keyword above).

[NinoFan]

Thanks for the ping and your hard work.

[GeronL]

I was wondering when the PRD political machine was going to start making these threats.

You know, I bet the PRI is rooting for this to escalate knowing that it could literally kill the PRD and return their party to the #2 spot at least.

[Bigg Red]

Thanks for the translation and the analysis. Great work.

[untenured]

Does the PRD control the Federal District?

It's amazing how close this guy came to being president. He or the PRD's next nominee may well win in 2012 if memories are short enough.

[ASOC]

Is a coup in the offing?

[BunnySlippers]

Thanks! Great analysis and much appreciated.

[StJacques]

"Is a coup in the offing?"

I would say "no." The Mexican military will not back the PRD. But widespread political unrest punctuated by violence, the frequency of which is difficult for me to estimate, is possible and it could lead to widespread disintegration of federal power in the southern states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, where things are already on the verge of chaos, and possibly even Tabasco, where the PRD is very strong.

The threat is chaos, not a coup, in my opinion, for whatever that's worth.

[colonialhk]

No it is like Marion Barry trying to take over the US from DC...tad bit more power though ......and people.

[ASOC]

So, in the end, which side will the Army come down on? My assuption is that the Army holds the real power - esp away from city centers....

[StJacques]

Actually, the Mexican Army is not very powerful at all and it is almost entirely removed from politics. This is a distinction quite unique in Latin American politics -- I'm guessing you're familiar with the "military politics" so typical of much of the rest of that region -- and it goes back to the Mexican Revolution. When Francisco Madero finally forced the longtime Mexican Dictator General Porfirio Diaz to step down in 1911 by virtue of widespread recognition that Diaz's victory in a forced election was fraudulent, it appeared that Mexico was on its way to constitutional democracy. But Madero, who became President soon afterwards, was in turn overthrown [and shot] by another Mexican General, Victoriano Huerta. This led to a widespread rebellion in which different leaders in various sections of the country, Emiliano Zapata in the south, Pancho Villa in the northwest, and Venustiano Carranza in the northeast; all raised private armies and brought on the violent phase of the Mexican Revolution, forcing Huerta to flee the country. Once everything finally "calmed down" (I use this term in its "relative" sense) by the 1920's, Mexico severely limited the power and scope of its military and they have been outsiders in Mexican politics ever since.

Do remember however, that the recent troubles of the Mexican Army in the south with the Zapatistas, who are not openly supportive of Lopez Obrador but who appeal to the same section of the population, will define the Mexican Army's attitude here to a significant degree. They take their orders from the civilian authority and that means they will do as Vicente Fox and his administration order them to do if push comes to shove. There will be no military coup.

[ASOC]

THanks - Used to live in AZ and stayed ahead of things, now in Ak and it doesn't seem quite the deal as before.....I was worried that I would have to brush up on my Spanglish.

Thanks for your time.

[Texan5]

Thank you so much for the update, ominous as it is-it looks ripe to go bad-I just hope cooler heads prevail.

[wolfcreek]

Send Jimmy carter down there. Maybe they'll keep him?

[nomorelurker]

I have been told that most of the army is posted around Mexico City, particularly any units with any heavy/advanced equipment. This is done (so I was told) so that no general in one of the states could have enough force to challenge the Federal gov. This being in part a result of the revolution.

[Taylor42]

Thank you for all of efforts and information. It is much appreciated.

[rovenstinez]

People from Monterrey think this is all a big joke. Other areas outside of Mexico City care little about what is happening to the historic district of Mexico City. Of course there is already plans in the making to 'demote' the Governor of Mexico City and take away his power/authority by a session of Congress. People familiar with those doing the protest, many of them are addicted to anger, and live in a constant turmoil, and aren't happy unless everyone else is as miserable with life as they are. The pornography section of Mexico City is hard hit, as well as many of the prostitues. Certainly aren't a clean bunch, they leave their trash, and are pretty messy, and you wouldn't want anyone of them to be your neighbor for sure.

[webheart]

and possibly even Tabasco

So, you're saying that things could get hot in Tabasco?

[A CA Guy]

At least the key word isn't anarchy or revolution at this time.