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Posted on 08/14/2006 7:45:09 AM PDT by SmithL
SACRAMENTO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has a solid lead in the polls. He has the bully pulpit of incumbency and the glitz of Hollywood celebrity. And history is on his side: No sitting governor has lost a second-term election since World War II.
Few incumbencies have posed such obstacles to challengers as the one Democrat Phil Angelides is facing in the next 88 days.
Yet Angelides' campaign strategists insist the political landscape favors them -- and political analysts also see a way for Angelides to emerge as the victor.
But it will not be easy, and Angelides must take full advantage of the opportunities: the prevailing negative sentiment toward Republicans nationally; the governor's inability to push through reform; the governor's sometimes tense relationship with conservatives; the disaffection Latinos have with the governor; and the likelihood there may still be time to inform voters about Angelides and remake his image.
Here's a more detailed look at how Angelides might take advantage of those opportunities -- and the obstacles he must overcome:
Anti-Republican mood: The Angelides camp is counting on a sour electorate to punish Republicans for the Iraq war, insecurities in the economy, high gas prices and excessive corporate profits. Voter angst, they predict, could translate into a vote against Schwarzenegger.
"Anti-Bush voters are energized and ready," said Bill Carrick, Angelides' media consultant, in a memo discussing the impact of Connecticut Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman's loss to anti-war candidate Ned Lamont, "to take their opposition to President Bush out on anyone perceived to be a Bush ally."
Tying Schwarzenegger to the national scene may be difficult, said Bruce Cain, director of the University of California Center in Washington, but it is not impossible.
"No question there's fodder there," Cain said. "The Angelides people have put their finger on a very plausible strategy. They can ram the image of Schwarzenegger going to Ohio (to campaign for Bush) down his throat."
The question, Cain said, is whether Schwarzenegger has been able to erase that image with his sprint to the center and his public rebukes of Bush. The governor has gone to great lengths to distance himself from the president on issues such as global warming, Medicare and federal help on floods.
Schwarzenegger's reform record: The Angelides team must make this campaign a referendum on Schwarzenegger, said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who worked on Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign and expects to work with labor groups in the gubernatorial campaign.
"The uber-message is that Schwarzenegger is a flip-flopper," Lehane said. "They have to show he has no core values."
Angelides appears to have found an issue -- political reform -- to drive that home. After endorsing Proposition 89, a sweeping political reform measure, Angelides has hammered Schwarzenegger for failing to live up to his promise to change politics in Sacramento.
Schwarzenegger opposes Prop. 89 because it would raise corporate taxes, but by doing so, Democrats can insist he has sold out his promise to "clean up the Capitol." That might play especially well for independents, voters who decline to state any party affiliation, and others who may have viewed Schwarzenegger as a different kind of politician.
Still, Schwarzenegger may already have blunted some of the fallout by quickly embracing other issues that are popular with voters, including the proposals for building roads and schools, and a crime measure that is tough on sexual predators.
Uneasy conservatives: Schwarzenegger's balancing act -- trying to both appeal to centrists and hold his conservative base -- could ultimately turn off GOP voters.
Conservatives have attacked Schwarzenegger for lurching to the left on issues such as global warming and immigration.
"Things that Schwarzenegger has been saying have angered the base, so a turnout dynamic becomes part of the national thing," said Paul Maslin, Angelides' chief strategist and pollster. "Our side is more motivated; theirs is dispirited, cross-pressured" between wanting to vote for a Republican but feeling frustrated with Schwarzenegger.
Republicans, though, say Democrats would be foolish to rely on GOP disaffection.
GOP voters are not the "most motivated electorate right now, but they're pretty reliable voters," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist and Schwarzenegger's former chief spokesman. "And the disaffection Republicans have with our party is directed at Washington. Arnold remains strong with Republican voters."
Latino backlash: Latino voters, who could represent as much as 15 percent of the vote, are uniquely motivated by national immigration issues, Democratic strategists say. And they may focus their wrath on Republicans -- and Schwarzenegger, despite his recent attempts to distance himself from hard-line conservative views on the issue.
With his level of Latino support dwindling to an all-time low -- less than 20 percent in recent polls, compared with 31 percent of the Latino vote he received in 2003 -- Schwarzenegger has tried to reach out to Latinos this summer.
He apologized for voting in favor of Proposition 187, which denied social services to illegal immigrants. He has appointed several Latinos to government posts, and has called for immigration reform at the national level.
Still, many Latinos will not forget -- or forgive -- his declaration of support for the Minutemen border militia or his promise to veto a bill to give driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants.
In a recent poll by the Survey, Policy & Research Institute at San Jose State, Latinos supported Angelides over Schwarzenegger, 61 percent to 19 percent.
"This is a constituency with specific problems with the governor's actions," Maslin said, "and has a general feeling about being scapegoated by Republicans."
But one problem for Angelides is that he is not getting full-throated support from the two highest-profile Latinos in elective politics: Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The two are close friends and political allies -- and Villaraigosa is a presumed candidate for governor in 2010, a run that would probably have to go on hold if Angelides were elected.
Image makeover: Angelides started the general campaign battered and bruised from a tough primary with state Controller Steve Westly, and immediately faced an onslaught of TV ads from the Schwarzenegger campaign defining him as a tax-and-spend liberal.
The Angelides team thinks it has enough time to reshape his image, though some wonder why he has not done more sooner.
"He may have a game plan, but I don't think anybody can say it's been implemented," said Kareem Crayton, an expert on law and politics at the University of Southern California. "A lot of people are wondering where he's been. It's obviously their strategy to wait until the fall, but it's kind of surprising he hasn't done more to reintroduce himself."
Maslin says there will be no shortage of opportunities to bring Angelides into focus for voters, who will begin to pay attention as summer winds down.
"We'll have plenty opportunity to communicate who this guy is, what he's all about," Maslin said. "And we know we gain as a result of that."
Is that human toe jam still around? If so, figure on an election-eve smear job of massive proportions against Arnold.
IIRC, he was one of the perps behind the Bruce Herschenson smear during the 1992 U.S. Senate election, which left California with the odious Barbara Boxer.
But of course. When was the last time you've seen the MSM advise what a Republican must do to "pull off a win?"
Republicans win by losing as far as the media are concerned.
Compared to Angelides, Davis was Mr. Personality.
ok so Beige Davis required a $25k "donation" in order to get an audience and Angiledes requires a $20k "donation" in order to get an audience.
You can fault the Gov. all you want, but he turned the tables on the liberal wing and carved off the moderates.
Of Angelides, insiders in Sacramento still snicker and call him the one with "all the charm of a CPA on crack".
a huge idealogical difference
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Good picture, and its fits, with one exception. TAXATION. Arnies knows what increased taxation to business and individuals will do to California --- Angelides does not care because he is a rank socialist, with only POWER as a goal.
Therein lies the difference.
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