Posted on 08/14/2006 7:45:09 AM PDT by SmithL
SACRAMENTO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has a solid lead in the polls. He has the bully pulpit of incumbency and the glitz of Hollywood celebrity. And history is on his side: No sitting governor has lost a second-term election since World War II.
Few incumbencies have posed such obstacles to challengers as the one Democrat Phil Angelides is facing in the next 88 days.
Yet Angelides' campaign strategists insist the political landscape favors them -- and political analysts also see a way for Angelides to emerge as the victor.
But it will not be easy, and Angelides must take full advantage of the opportunities: the prevailing negative sentiment toward Republicans nationally; the governor's inability to push through reform; the governor's sometimes tense relationship with conservatives; the disaffection Latinos have with the governor; and the likelihood there may still be time to inform voters about Angelides and remake his image.
Here's a more detailed look at how Angelides might take advantage of those opportunities -- and the obstacles he must overcome:
Anti-Republican mood: The Angelides camp is counting on a sour electorate to punish Republicans for the Iraq war, insecurities in the economy, high gas prices and excessive corporate profits. Voter angst, they predict, could translate into a vote against Schwarzenegger.
"Anti-Bush voters are energized and ready," said Bill Carrick, Angelides' media consultant, in a memo discussing the impact of Connecticut Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman's loss to anti-war candidate Ned Lamont, "to take their opposition to President Bush out on anyone perceived to be a Bush ally."
Tying Schwarzenegger to the national scene may be difficult, said Bruce Cain, director of the University of California Center in Washington, but it is not impossible.
"No question there's fodder there," Cain said. "The Angelides people have put their finger on a very plausible strategy. They can ram the image of Schwarzenegger going to Ohio (to campaign for Bush) down his throat."
The question, Cain said, is whether Schwarzenegger has been able to erase that image with his sprint to the center and his public rebukes of Bush. The governor has gone to great lengths to distance himself from the president on issues such as global warming, Medicare and federal help on floods.
Schwarzenegger's reform record: The Angelides team must make this campaign a referendum on Schwarzenegger, said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who worked on Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign and expects to work with labor groups in the gubernatorial campaign.
"The uber-message is that Schwarzenegger is a flip-flopper," Lehane said. "They have to show he has no core values."
Angelides appears to have found an issue -- political reform -- to drive that home. After endorsing Proposition 89, a sweeping political reform measure, Angelides has hammered Schwarzenegger for failing to live up to his promise to change politics in Sacramento.
Schwarzenegger opposes Prop. 89 because it would raise corporate taxes, but by doing so, Democrats can insist he has sold out his promise to "clean up the Capitol." That might play especially well for independents, voters who decline to state any party affiliation, and others who may have viewed Schwarzenegger as a different kind of politician.
Still, Schwarzenegger may already have blunted some of the fallout by quickly embracing other issues that are popular with voters, including the proposals for building roads and schools, and a crime measure that is tough on sexual predators.
Uneasy conservatives: Schwarzenegger's balancing act -- trying to both appeal to centrists and hold his conservative base -- could ultimately turn off GOP voters.
Conservatives have attacked Schwarzenegger for lurching to the left on issues such as global warming and immigration.
"Things that Schwarzenegger has been saying have angered the base, so a turnout dynamic becomes part of the national thing," said Paul Maslin, Angelides' chief strategist and pollster. "Our side is more motivated; theirs is dispirited, cross-pressured" between wanting to vote for a Republican but feeling frustrated with Schwarzenegger.
Republicans, though, say Democrats would be foolish to rely on GOP disaffection.
GOP voters are not the "most motivated electorate right now, but they're pretty reliable voters," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist and Schwarzenegger's former chief spokesman. "And the disaffection Republicans have with our party is directed at Washington. Arnold remains strong with Republican voters."
Latino backlash: Latino voters, who could represent as much as 15 percent of the vote, are uniquely motivated by national immigration issues, Democratic strategists say. And they may focus their wrath on Republicans -- and Schwarzenegger, despite his recent attempts to distance himself from hard-line conservative views on the issue.
With his level of Latino support dwindling to an all-time low -- less than 20 percent in recent polls, compared with 31 percent of the Latino vote he received in 2003 -- Schwarzenegger has tried to reach out to Latinos this summer.
He apologized for voting in favor of Proposition 187, which denied social services to illegal immigrants. He has appointed several Latinos to government posts, and has called for immigration reform at the national level.
Still, many Latinos will not forget -- or forgive -- his declaration of support for the Minutemen border militia or his promise to veto a bill to give driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants.
In a recent poll by the Survey, Policy & Research Institute at San Jose State, Latinos supported Angelides over Schwarzenegger, 61 percent to 19 percent.
"This is a constituency with specific problems with the governor's actions," Maslin said, "and has a general feeling about being scapegoated by Republicans."
But one problem for Angelides is that he is not getting full-throated support from the two highest-profile Latinos in elective politics: Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The two are close friends and political allies -- and Villaraigosa is a presumed candidate for governor in 2010, a run that would probably have to go on hold if Angelides were elected.
Image makeover: Angelides started the general campaign battered and bruised from a tough primary with state Controller Steve Westly, and immediately faced an onslaught of TV ads from the Schwarzenegger campaign defining him as a tax-and-spend liberal.
The Angelides team thinks it has enough time to reshape his image, though some wonder why he has not done more sooner.
"He may have a game plan, but I don't think anybody can say it's been implemented," said Kareem Crayton, an expert on law and politics at the University of Southern California. "A lot of people are wondering where he's been. It's obviously their strategy to wait until the fall, but it's kind of surprising he hasn't done more to reintroduce himself."
Maslin says there will be no shortage of opportunities to bring Angelides into focus for voters, who will begin to pay attention as summer winds down.
"We'll have plenty opportunity to communicate who this guy is, what he's all about," Maslin said. "And we know we gain as a result of that."
A disaster in the making. Can you say MEChA?
"We'll have plenty opportunity to communicate who this guy is, what he's all about," Maslin said. "And we know we gain as a result of that."
We already know who this guy is. He wants to raise taxes. That alone should be a deal breaker. Unfortunately, with CA voters, you're never sure. A very fickle bunch to say the least.
I didn't know Bush was on the ballot in California.
Punish Republicans for high gas prices and excessive corporate profits? Well, the idiots who are already blaming the Republicans for this are already going to vote for Angelides anyway and won't get any madder. Reasonable people, including regular liberals, understand the real reason why gas prices are high.
This is typical left-wing SOP.
Please offer details. I want a list.
If he is elected be prepared for higher taxes, he said he would raise them.
The libs. in California are screwing this state, the legislature is trying to come up with ideas for financing "affordable" housing. all with taxing and fees. then what? Gee, off hand, I would say stop with the extreme environmental mandates, seems that might be step one.
It struck me as dem propaganda, too.
And not very good propaganda, at that!
Of course, he can't raise them without a super-majority vote of the legislature. It makes supporting each local election that much more vital. We need to make sure to hold at least the 1/3+ of the legislators to block that nonsense if he were to be elected.
heh heh heh
Or as a cartoon suggested, Gray Davis with glasses.
Pilth EatYerWheaties is going to be terminated.
As someone once said about Michael Dukakis, "If you're going to wear natural shoulder suits, it helps if you have some."
"Anti-Bush voters are energized and ready,"
'I didn't know Bush was on the ballot in California.'
In California GW is hated every second of every day by the left wing lunatics, and everyday they vote against him. They relive the movie "Groundhog Day" everyday and vote against GW and lose. Talk about a quagmire.
Dukakis lost for a reason. He was a bitter partisan know-it-all. Angelides is the same. This is why Dukakis picked him to head his California campaign.
Not even the his own Greeks are enthused with Angelides.
I love when the media gives campaign advice to Democrats. "Here, you have to do this so you win!"
Angelides is done. Stick a fork in him. I may not be thrilled with Arnold, but the fact is Angelides is as dull as dirt and cannot count on an anti-Bush vote carrying him into office. The real fever swamp types would vote for him regardless. Less partisan Democrats will be open to voting for Arnold based on the state of the state, and the fact there's not much one can associate Arnold with Bush on. I don't think there's any perception or connection to Bush in this state between he and Arnold. I think Arnold has kept the president at arm's length.
None of these facts leaves Angelides with much.
LOL, only media types in their ivory towers could be so disconnected from reality as to think this is an issue that moves voters. Please. This is inside-baseball type stuff that never wins elections nor finds any passion among voters.
Also, to claim that Arnold has been weak on reform is a claim that will only play among those who forget all his reform props. last year that the unions spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars to defeat. I don't think most people forget that fact and will be moved by any claim that Arnold isn't a reformer. I think most people understand he's been up against an immovable object when it comes to reforming the state. Yet he's still had some successes such as with worker's comp.
You can understand why the CAGOP rushed to close their gubernatorial primary.
Even a conservative could whip this weasel look alike.
Seems Arnie already has seized him by the opportunities.....
Angelides is the exact bogeyman caricature of the person Republicans talk about when they appeal to conservatives to vote for them "because the Dem is far worse." And indeed, Angelides is that bogeyman.
Lehane you are still the schmuck from the Algore campaign who never got it!
Far from been a Schwarzenegger's cheer leader, the man delivered 2 things I cared for.
1. No Driver's licenses for illegals.
2. He balanced the California's budget without raising taxes and we are running in black numbers budget wise.
Based on those two issues The Terminator has my vote.
Under no circumstances will I vote for that Wiesel face Angelides, who promised tax increases right off the bat!
Are you telling me that Beige Davis was a charismatic persona?
Are you from LA?Angelides is just an insipid, stiff and charming as a pile of rocks type of individual.
And that weasel face, how I'd like to slap it!
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