Posted on 08/10/2006 6:39:41 AM PDT by Pokey78
It was not my idea of a joke, but I reluctantly complied with the Israeli detectives request that I hand over all my belongings to him as hostages, including my mobile phone and passport. He congratulated himself repeatedly on his sense of humour, before ushering me on to the back seat of the heavily armoured Jaguar, where I squeezed in as best as I could between Benjamin Netanyahu and one of his bodyguards.
As our mini-motorcade began its journey across London, with the Hebrew-speaking security personnel eyeing every passing car, it soon became obvious that these are curious times for Netanyahu, the former Israeli prime minister. He may be leader of the opposition but he has steadfastly supported his bitter rival Prime Minister Ehud Olmert throughout the conflict in Lebanon, while also feeling that the hawkish views that cost his Likud party the March election have now been vindicated by the thousands of Hezbollah rockets that have landed on Israel over the past month.
To Netanyahu, the rise of Irans extremist regime is the defining geopolitical event of our times; the whole world, not just Israel, is in its sights. Dealing with Tehran is therefore the Wests greatest challenge; he is scathing about many Europeans refusal to recognise the Iranian regimes imperialistic and murderous ambitions. But to my great surprise he is absolutely convinced that America will soon step in, one way or the other, to prevent Tehran from going nuclear, and that this will happen at some point during the remaining two years and three months of the Bush presidency.
When President Bush said that he will not let Iran develop nuclear weapons, I take him at his word, he said, quietly. How he plans to do it of course is up to him. The fact is that the President of the US said that he he would not let Iran develop nuclear weapons. That places first a clear goal. It doesnt define the means, and as you know there is a United Nations resolution, but it does define a time-limit for the achievement of that goal. The timeframe is a logical inference. I take him at his word. Why doubt it?
Last months UN Security Council resolution giving Iran until the end of this month to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of international sanctions is only a start. These are obviously milestones. It is important that they are laid down but we have to keep our mind on the main issue, which is that time is running out. Our intelligence chiefs have said that within three years an unimpeded Iran will be able to produce a bomb.
I pressed Netanyahu further, asking him whether he thought it would be feasible for the US to take out Irans nuclear capabilities by force, given that their nuclear research programme is spread across Iran and buried in bunkers deep underground. But Netanyahu simply shrugged. Just listen to Bush. He obviously thinks he has some combination of means: diplomatic, military, whatever.
Rarely are politicians so unequivocal. Although Netanyahu claims to be relying purely on public statements from the White House, his view will be taken extremely seriously across the world. For it suggests that the Bush presidency will end either on a diplomatic breakthrough with a cast-iron agreement that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons; or else with the monumental gamble that war with Iran would represent.
If the US is indeed preparing for a serious showdown, those who argue that President Bush invaded the wrong country in 2003 will undoubtedly feel vindicated. Remarkably, Netanyahu agrees: Would it have been smarter to go directly into Iran? Would it have been wiser? In retrospect the answer is probably yes. But he also argued that one of the most far-reaching yet least recognised military interventions of the past few decades was Israels daring raid on Iraqs Osirak nuclear power station in 1981, which destroyed its nuclear programme. Saddam with atomic weapons would have been a great danger, too. Israel deserves credit for giving the world two to three decades of nuclear peace from nuclear-armed banditry. Israel was condemned at the time, as it is condemned now, for defending itself, but in so doing also removing a tremendous threat from the world, said Netanyahu.
But the conversation again turned to Iran and its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly called for Israel to be wiped off the map. While denying the Holocaust, hes openly preparing the next one, Netanyahu said. Ahmadinejad is behaving exactly like an Islamist Hitler. He is using the same tactics of signalling in advance the act of destruction. That the same thing is happening is one thing, but that the West is reacting in the same way is unacceptable. What is history for?
By now, Netanyahu was shouting angrily, shaking his fist as he explained the similarities he sees between the 1930s and today. Yes, there are differences, it is not a perfect analogy. Yes, Germany didnt have a billion Germans to infect. Yes, Germany had race and not creed as its prime goal. Nazism started its attacks on the Jews and spread to the rest of the world in their mad militancy, and that is exactly what is happening now.
For Netanyahu, Israel is a latter-day Czechoslovakia, which deluded and desperately anti-war European powers, led by Neville Chamberlain, sacrificed to the Nazis in 1938 because of the German-speaking minority in Sudetenland, whom he compares with todays Palestinians. And, yes, there was apologetics and, yes, there was appeasement and, yes, there was pressure on a small resistant democracy in the face of this German onslaught. It was called Czechoslovakia at the time. And, yes, there were articles in the British press condemning Czechoslovakia for inciting a German response because of the denial of the rights of the Sudeten Germans. Do you want to go on with this?
Netanyahu rejects the comparison between radical Islamic terrorists and communists. The main difference, he argues, is that the communists were rational when it came to foreign policy, putting their survival first and always backing down at the last moment, as shown in the Cuban missile crisis. This was not true of the Iranian regime, he said, arguing that they were trying to prompt the return of the Hidden Imam, an event which Shiites believe would be accompanied by an apocalypse. Is it possible in the 21st century to have a resurrection of the religious wars that we thought had ended in the 17th century? Yes, its possible. This is what is going on.
With more civilian casualties announced in Lebanon by the day, I asked Netanyahu whether he thought Israels military campaign was proportionate. Our response is disproportionately low, he replied, comparing Israels campaign with Britains bombing of Germany during the second world war. We had thousands of rockets on our cities, on Haifa and the northern cities. You had thousands of rockets on your cities. What was the response? How can you measure proportionality without using precedents? In a court of law thats what people do, they look at precedents.
But why then were previously friendly Arab regimes now condemning Israel? What Arab leaders say privately to Washington and secretly to Jerusalem is something that would make extraordinary copy for you, and its very different to what they say publicly. He added that he has had similar conversations over the past two years with leaders of some of the main European countries, and they were far more supportive of Israel in private than in public. For that he blames the media. I dont think Churchill could have won the war if he had cameras in Dresden... .
He also said he felt very disappointed by William Hagues recent criticism of Israel. Im sure he knows better. I always thought of him, and still like to think of him, as a friend and colleague, not in the professional sense but in common views and beliefs. All leadership is taking a personal hit; unless you are prepared to pay a cost for your beliefs, you are not a leader. Blair is a leader. I respect him for it.
The root cause of the current conflict, Netanyahu argued, is that Hezbollah and Hamas consider all of Israel to be illegitimately occupied land, and that the extremists have been trying to prevent any Jewish settlement in the Middle East since at least the 1920s. They say very openly that their goal is not merely to stop at the 1967 lines; but we could vacate all the West Bank and it wouldnt make a damned difference to them. [The Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah was perfectly honest on this. He said hes firing the rockets into occupied Israel. The occupied settlements of occupied Palestine. It is not a conflict about this or that territory; it is a conflict about Israels very existence. And to them, any Israeli sovereignty over any piece of land is anathema.
This should concern everybody, not only in the West but also in the East, Netanyahu argued, because the extremists are trying to recreate the old Islamic empire of yore. To them, Israel is simply the first forward position of the hedonistic, corrupt infidel civilisation that has to be overcome to afford their view of the resurgence of Islam. On that note, Netanyahu bade me farewell and jumped out of the car, leaving me to collect my mobile phone and to ruminate on just how depressing our world has become.
Allister Heath is associate editor of The Spectator and deputy editor of the Business.
I don't see how he can stop them in a way that would be politically acceptable, given the current political climate.
There are only two ways to do it. First, he could invade with a conventional force. But that would be extremely expensive and bloody, and would likely send the price of oil thru the stratosphere, which would severely damage the economy, and perhaps shut down the invasion. I suspect he'd be impeached, and you can be certain that Congress would not approve it.
Second, he could launch a nuclear strike, which obviously would not go over well politically. In addition, it would probably result in a cut off of imported oil & ostracization of the US. So that's not going to happen.
Precision airstrikes won't work. Not thorough enough. The best he could hope for would be a short delay.
So the bottom line is that they will get the a-bomb, they will use it, and then the President will have an easier time convincing Congress to do something.
Wish some Dems would take a cue from Netanyahu.....
I doubt it will be the former.....
JMHO: Bush's hands are tied until after the November elections. He can't afford to roil the pot anymore than its already being shaken at the moment.........unless something disasterous happens on Aug. 22......or Aug 11th.......or Sept 11th.
Well...if we hadn't invaded Iraq, we wouldnt be in the strategic position we our now in (having Iran surrounded).
IMHO, it's always been Bush's plan to take out Iran and Syria after Iraq. The only debate has been the time table.
The "moderate" success of the insurgency in Iraq has put off decisive military action against Iran (IMHO), although one could argue that Bush has played the "exhaust all diplomatic options" card before pursueing inevitable military action against Iran.
Afterall, who honestly believes that the Iranian thugs actually want/care for/ or would respect/ a diplomatic solution. We jump through the hoops because we're the good guys.
It will be cause Iran decided to change course so as to avoid Israeli action,or because Israel actually took out the nukes.
Israel is the only country on earth that has both the ability *and* the determination to keep Iran nuke free!
If it werent for the US Europe would already have sacrificed Israel.
Right on that point. No way will Iran give up nukes. Also, Russia and China will not agree to an embargo.
I see Bush with limited options:
1) Seek a coalition to embargo Iran from selling anything, including oil, which would require a naval blockade. Iran would probably retaliate, then we would hit their nuke sites and command.
2) Surgically strike their nuke sites but not command sites in an effort not to go for it all.
3) Strike nuke sites and command sites to do away with their leadership.
4) Use internal dissidents to foment a revolution or coup. I'm not sure this can happen. Iran is a police state, and it would be difficult to create a viable coup without significant intervention.
In America, in 1941, a lot of people thought we should avoid war against Japan. Then came Pearl Harbor. And most people decided that they supported war.
But not everyone changed their mind.
If Iran were to incinerate NYC, a lot of Democrats would decide to support the President.
But a lot of Democrats would refuse to change their minds. And the war would still be difficult for President Bush to pursue in the way he ought to.
Bibi, while I like Bush and agree with most of his policies, I would caution you and Israel against trusting a man or a nation - trust in G-d alone, and do what you need to do yourselves. If the US helps out, so much the better - but don't make the mistake of depending on others to fight your battles.
The same can be said for any other nation. Alliances are wonderful, but not to be utterly trusted - every nation, and every leader, has their own agenda, and it likely doesn't coincide 100% with your own.
It seems to me the monumental gamble would be to allow a nation that explicitly states that they intend to destroy us to acquire nuclear weapons.
What exactly is the monumental gamble involved with going to war with Iran?
That we might face diplomatic fallout with the rest of the world? We would find serious opposition from the peace at any cost crowd and the Islamic militants of the world that appear.
However, we simply cannot afford to join in a suicide pact with the appeasement crowd. The longer we do so, the more lives will be lost when we eventually have to wake up and fight for our survival. History has proven this again and again.
As for the Islamic militants, they keep saying that they intend to destroy us. When are we going to start taking them at their word?
So what about the military risks? Defeating Iran's military is not a difficult task in a military sense. Our military is far, far superior to theirs.
There are risks to the lives of our military, and those should not be taken lightly, however nor should we take lightly that the terrorists Iran supports have been killing Americans for decades, and promise to keep killing more and more.
The risks for the ground war needed to do a decent job of taking out their leadership and their nuclear capabilities is much more significant.
A sustained occupation intended to stabilize the country politically after defeating their military might is even more risky due to the amoral nature of the terrorism.
However, once again those risks are overshadowed by the risks of doing nothing and allowing the threat to continue to grow.
There are also economic risks.
The war in Iraq has cost us greatly. We have had to pay the costs of doing the job that the rest of the world admitted over and over again needed done, but were unwilling to do.
However, defeating Iraq not only took Sadam out of power and removed a significant threat to the world, it also put Syria and Iran in their places for a short while, until the media and the left undermined that success by sapping the will of America to support using force when necessary. They are doing their best to create a defeat from an obvious victory.
They have even convinced the public that Iraq has been a failure despite the fact that the insurgency is foreign funded and to a large extent led by foreigners. That insurgency is also weak militarily. They simply do not have the strength to overthrow the Iraqi government, though the Iraqi government does not at this point have the power to wipe out the insurgency completely.
If we take out Iran, the main source of funding for these terrorists goes away. Syria remains, and other nations aid terrorism as well to a lesser extent, but removing Iran would dramatically weaken their financing and the power flexibility the gain from having such a powerful government sponsor.
The huge gamble isn't going to war with Iran. The huge gamble is allowing Iran to continue do do what it has done since Carter's presidency. It's time for that to end, and Iran has made it perfectly clear that they will not stopped unless they are forced to stop.
We need to force them to stop, and this time we need to bill the country of Iran for the costs of the war. It's time we quit having to defend ourselves from aggressors and then let them off the hook for the cost of what they forced us to do.
The people who will object to that have already proved themselves our enemies in one way or another. Don't ask them for permission, tell them it's how it is going to be and that since they were unwilling to do anything useful, they should stay out of the way.
IMHO, it's always been Bush's plan to take out Iran and Syria after Iraq.
I agree. No, Iraq was not a bigger threat than Iran, but there were other considerations involved in the decision to invade. Having an unsinkable aircraft carrier in between Syria and Iran was, IMHO, THE primary goal of the invasion.
Look at the masterful strategery: Syria is caught between Israel and the US, either one of which can crush its armed forces and devastate its infrastructure in a matter of days. Iran is not only caught between US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, but it now doesn't have a direct logistic line (or line of communications) with its principle ally in the region, Syria.
Now all we need is the right opportunity to take out one or the other, and the remaining country will become very pliable very quickly. I vote for Syria - and let's let (urge, actually) Israel to do that deed, as it'll solve a lot of that country's problems. In return, we can pledge to KO Iran's nukes and try to cut off Hitler's, uhhh, Ahwannajihad's head.
Come to think of it, maybe this is why Bibi is so optimistic.
"...or else with the monumental gamble that war with Iran would represent."
It is no gamble, we're playing against a stacked deck. Bush has no choice. It's "us or them" time and he knows the Democrats would choose them.
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If we end up bombing Iran, I suspect the Iranian regime will be shocked at how quickly and completely their nuclear facilities are destroyed and how little Iran can do in response.
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