Posted on 08/07/2006 9:55:36 AM PDT by Reagan Man
Minneapolis, Minnesota: Members of the Republican National Committee awakened this morning to read gloomy news in the Minneapolis Star Tribune: as the RNC closed its summer meeting at the Sheraton Bloomington Hotel, two of the nation's most-quoted political prognosticators told the Star Tribune concluded that signs were ominous that the GOP would lose its majority in the House and could also lose their edge in the U.S. Senate this November.
"An electoral rout" is what independent political analyst Charles Cook said Republicans could face in the fall. Cook lists fifteen GOP House seats (and no Democratic-held seats) as toss-ups--or precisely the number that Democrats need to retake the House majority for the first time in twelve years. University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato -- easily the most-quoted prognosticator in America--forecast that "Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades." Along with fellow UVA analyst David Wasserman, Sabato expects Democrats to gain 12-to-15 seats in the House (up from a forecast of a net gain of six-to-eight last month) and a gain of three-to-six seats in the Senate (up from two-to-three last month).
To this "gloom and doom" forecast from the "experts," grass-roots GOP leaders responded almost in unison with "Nuts to you!"
Noting that Cook, Sabato, and Company are basing their predictions on nationwide poll numbers on President Bush and the Republicans, South Dakota GOP National Committeeman Ron Schmidt told me: "All politics is local and in our state, those national numbers just don't transfer."
Nebraska GOP National Committeeman Hal Daub also disputed the gloomy forecasts. "We have a great economy and great President," said Daub, a former U.S. Representative and mayor of Omaha, "We just need to get positive, get off negative, and play offense." He went on to charge that Republicans would have a triumphant off-year election because "we have a different conviction of principles than the Democrats. They may not know it now, but their rhetoric may lead to a permanent minority status for the Democratic Party and their conduct will do it. [Democratic National Chairman]Howard Dean doesn't get it!"
Dr. Doug McKinney, newly-elected state party chairman in West Virginia, noted that the President won his state over John Kerry by a big margin ("My people weren't fooled by Kerry's hunting trip to Ohio") and predicted a good off-year results in the Mountaineer State. "We have a lot of DINO's [Democrats in Name Only] where I come from," McKinney told me.
Several other RNC members said the "experts" were off because they were, as Schmidt told me, not taking into account local issues and personalities that transcend the national scene. "This election is about the leadership of our Republican governor, Linda Lingle, who took a $150 million deficit after Democrats were in the governorship for 43 years and, in four years, has turned it into a $600 million surplus," said Sam Aiona, state Republican chairman of Hawaii. "There's obviously a real difference between Democratic and Republican leadership in Hawaii. The U.S. economy is strong, the Hawaiian economy is strong, and the pocketbook issues favor Republicans."
Aiona also pointed out that Democratic turnout is usually driven by the state's senior senator, Daniel Inouye, "who usually comes out on TV five days before the election urging Democrats to come to the polls. Now he's out three months before the election urging a big turnout. That gives you an indication of how close things are."
Illinois Republican National Committeeman Mary Jo Arndt, who began reading HUMAN EVENTS by giving annual subscriptions to her Bridge Club for $1 a year under a special offer in 1964 ("to help Barry Goldwater, my hero"), also said the party is in strong shape in her state because "a lot of Democrats are very unhappy." She cited the nationally-watched race for president of the Cook County (Chicago) Board of Supervisors, in which ailing and unseen incumbent John Stroger blessed his son Todd to replace him as the Democratic nominee this fall and the county Democratic committee went along with it -- upsetting other ambitious Democrats. According to Arndt, "[Republican]nominee Tony Peraica has a great chance to win and there is great enthusiasm for him, as there is for Peter Garza, our nominee for Cook County sheriff. People want to see more intergrity in public officials."
Perhaps the most poignant rejoinder to Cook, Sabato, and Company came from Californias' GOP National Committeeman Tim Morgan. "At this time in 1998 [the last closing mid-term election of an eight-year presidency]. Republicans thought they would win thirty more seats. And they thought that right up to a few days before the election and then they lost seats. So who knows?
Ney just pulled out this morning; his replacement will make that Ohio seat "safe." So to make these prognostications now is premature.
How come we never hear of the rat seats that will go red,
NJ,MD,WASH,MINN
FYI
Most election prognosticators get it wrong, but there are less then 90 days till the 2006 vote. These pollsters will probably be proven wrong in the end, but its not premature to start the pundit propagandizing.
That Commie rag? I can tell them right now to not believe a word of it. It is a half assed paper that tries SO hard to be as irreverent, clever, and noticed as the SF Chron.
Too bad the Star and Sickle is to journalism what the Vikings are to Superbowls...
Political Analyst Sees Kerry Victory
Business Council gathering is told Bush will `need a miracle'
by David White
POINT CLEAR, Alabama - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
``Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.
``He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
``He bet his presidency on Iraq. But he's this close to losing the bet," said Sabato, holding a finger and thumb about an inch apart.
He said polls show support for the Iraq war has dropped from about 70 percent of Americans to about 45 percent or less.
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.
Our congressman held a town hall meeting the other day and there were a lot of "bomb throwers" in the audience (this is a safe Republican district and a lot of those in attendance were disaffected Dhmmicranks who wanted a confrontation with our new, one-term Republican). A few had legitimate questions or complaints, but most of the rest only tried to make the man look bad and they asked him to do things that were contradictory, foolish or hopelessly outdated. At some point it occured to me that the Dhimmicranks aren't a party so much as an organized peeve. God help us if they regain control of the House.
Very good.
Larry Sabato Bets on Domestic Issues overtaking Foreign Policy Issues in 2002 Election
Sabato says this will Hurt Republicans.
"I'm betting on domestic issues coming back strong," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "Iraq will still be on the front page, but it will be a split headline."
When swing voters start paying attention to the election, he said, it will be weeks after the House and Senate have pledged their support for Bush's military plans assuming the debate there proceeds as expected.
For Republicans, a return to domestic issues will be disappointing since all polls show Democratic advantages on those issues and GOP advantages on anything involving the war against terrorism.
"In politics, you can delay the day of reckoning, but you cannot eliminate the day of reckoning," Sabato said. "If the stock market continues tanking and people get really lousy third-quarter statements on their 401(k)s in mid-October, it's going to have some political effect in November."
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20020922-9999_1n22politics.html
Folks can be mad at the party in general but still be happy with their particular congresscritter, and vote him/her back in, which I think will probably happen this Fall.
Back in the summer of 1992 I attended a seminar in Washington DC. One of the speakers was Charlie Cook. He assured everyone that although the Republicans would make "modest" gains in November both houses would remain safely under Democrat control. Charlie was wrong then and he will be wrong again.
Do you mean 1994?
I believe the Dems held the House and Senate after the 1992 Election.
I would add to this that GOP poll numbers always suck during the Summer months. It happens like clockwork. Democrats always do better when people are not as focused on politics (or are on vacation, as many are this time of year). Adding to the skewed numbers is that pollsters are still polling "adults" rather than likely voters.
This year seems no different. This is especially true in Congressional races, which are not decided based on national poll numbers (the correct point of this article).
Of course, it is not being held today, and I am confident the GOP will make some moves in the upcoming months to try to reenergize their base.
In the end, I think we are probably looking at another status quo election.
Charlie Cook.. given your miserable failure at political prognostication, must suck to be you.
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