Posted on 08/07/2006 9:55:36 AM PDT by Reagan Man
Ney just pulled out this morning; his replacement will make that Ohio seat "safe." So to make these prognostications now is premature.
How come we never hear of the rat seats that will go red,
NJ,MD,WASH,MINN
FYI
Most election prognosticators get it wrong, but there are less then 90 days till the 2006 vote. These pollsters will probably be proven wrong in the end, but its not premature to start the pundit propagandizing.
That Commie rag? I can tell them right now to not believe a word of it. It is a half assed paper that tries SO hard to be as irreverent, clever, and noticed as the SF Chron.
Too bad the Star and Sickle is to journalism what the Vikings are to Superbowls...
Political Analyst Sees Kerry Victory
Business Council gathering is told Bush will `need a miracle'
by David White
POINT CLEAR, Alabama - Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
``Kerry would win very handily," said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA's governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush's re-election chances.
``He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman," Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn't ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
``He bet his presidency on Iraq. But he's this close to losing the bet," said Sabato, holding a finger and thumb about an inch apart.
He said polls show support for the Iraq war has dropped from about 70 percent of Americans to about 45 percent or less.
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.
Our congressman held a town hall meeting the other day and there were a lot of "bomb throwers" in the audience (this is a safe Republican district and a lot of those in attendance were disaffected Dhmmicranks who wanted a confrontation with our new, one-term Republican). A few had legitimate questions or complaints, but most of the rest only tried to make the man look bad and they asked him to do things that were contradictory, foolish or hopelessly outdated. At some point it occured to me that the Dhimmicranks aren't a party so much as an organized peeve. God help us if they regain control of the House.
Very good.
Larry Sabato Bets on Domestic Issues overtaking Foreign Policy Issues in 2002 Election
Sabato says this will Hurt Republicans.
"I'm betting on domestic issues coming back strong," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "Iraq will still be on the front page, but it will be a split headline."
When swing voters start paying attention to the election, he said, it will be weeks after the House and Senate have pledged their support for Bush's military plans – assuming the debate there proceeds as expected.
For Republicans, a return to domestic issues will be disappointing since all polls show Democratic advantages on those issues and GOP advantages on anything involving the war against terrorism.
"In politics, you can delay the day of reckoning, but you cannot eliminate the day of reckoning," Sabato said. "If the stock market continues tanking and people get really lousy third-quarter statements on their 401(k)s in mid-October, it's going to have some political effect in November."
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20020922-9999_1n22politics.html
Folks can be mad at the party in general but still be happy with their particular congresscritter, and vote him/her back in, which I think will probably happen this Fall.
Back in the summer of 1992 I attended a seminar in Washington DC. One of the speakers was Charlie Cook. He assured everyone that although the Republicans would make "modest" gains in November both houses would remain safely under Democrat control. Charlie was wrong then and he will be wrong again.
Do you mean 1994?
I believe the Dems held the House and Senate after the 1992 Election.
I would add to this that GOP poll numbers always suck during the Summer months. It happens like clockwork. Democrats always do better when people are not as focused on politics (or are on vacation, as many are this time of year). Adding to the skewed numbers is that pollsters are still polling "adults" rather than likely voters.
This year seems no different. This is especially true in Congressional races, which are not decided based on national poll numbers (the correct point of this article).
Of course, it is not being held today, and I am confident the GOP will make some moves in the upcoming months to try to reenergize their base.
In the end, I think we are probably looking at another status quo election.
Charlie Cook.. given your miserable failure at political prognostication, must suck to be you.
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