Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Iran's Strategy Is Crudely Obvious--So Why Can't We Fight It?
RealClearPolitics ^ | August 01, 2006 | Robert Tracinski

Posted on 08/04/2006 5:09:32 PM PDT by brain bleeds red

The new Lebanon War, like much of the War on Terrorism, has a strange character. It is a war in which everyone knows the enemy's strategy, in which it is child's play to see through all of his ruses and propaganda tricks--and yet our leaders, rather than devising their own counter-strategy, fall for every ruse and play along with the enemy's game.

You hear a lot of talk these days about the "clever" Iranians and what good "chess players" they are in the contest of international diplomacy. But the Iranian strategy is, in fact, crudely transparent and obviously morally bankrupt. Everyone can grasp this--yet our leaders keep falling into the Iranian traps.

Everyone knows that Iran is using Hezbollah's war in Lebanon to distract attention from its nuclear weapons program. The Iranians were given a July 5 deadline to suspend uranium enrichment or face "serious consequences." The contemptuous Iranians declared that they wouldn't reply for another six weeks, on August 22. Then Hezbollah--a wholly-owned subsidiary of Iran's Revolutionary Guards--initiated their war in Lebanon, and no one has paid attention to the Iranian nuclear program for the past three weeks. Now, finally, we are sending a new resolution to the UN Security Council--giving Iran until August 31 to agree to talks or face another months-long debate about whether we will impose sanctions against them.

The Iranian strategy to buy time is utterly transparent and not especially clever. It is simple to defeat: declare that Hezbollah's aggression against Israel is proof of Iran's evil intentions and that we don't require any further diplomatic justification to bomb Iran's nuclear sites and bring down its regime.

Instead, Western leaders fell for the Iranian strategy, and the Iranians have pretty much gotten what they wanted.

Everyone knows that Syria is using Hezbollah's war as a way of propping up its security and influence after it was forced to retreat from Lebanon in disgrace last year. By initiating a new war against Israel, the Syrians hope to appeal to the venomous hatred of Israel on the "Arab street," regaining Arab support Syria had lost by assassinating pro-independence leaders in Lebanon. By initiating the war on Lebanese soil, Syria hoped to justify its former military presence there, "proving" that the Syrian withdrawal led only to anarchy and bloodshed--proving it, that is, by causing the bloodshed. Finally, Syria's Baathist regime is using its alliance with the Islamist fanatics of Hezbollah to replace its fading secular ideology with a new, religious foundation.

Again, this is all obvious, and the answer is obvious. By bringing the war home to its Syrian sponsor, we could make it clear that initiating this war will topple the Syrian regime, rather than propping it up.

Instead, American commentators and diplomats have fallen for the Syrian strategy, declaring that this conflict makes it necessary to re-establish negotiations with Syria, offer Syria territorial concessions, and even to compete with Iran for Syria's affections.

Everyone knows that Hezbollah initiated a war with Israel in order to justify its status as a military "state within a state," billing itself as a defender of Lebanon against Israel--even while, far from defending Lebanon, Hezbollah is causing Lebanon to be torn apart. And everyone knows that Hezbollah deliberately operates among Lebanon's civilian population, cynically exploiting the resulting civilian casualties as propaganda.

This has already been ruthlessly dissected by many American and Israeli commentators. See, for example, an excellent editorial in Monday's Washington Times on Hezbollah's use of "human shields," which includes a link to photos of Hezbollah guns and missile launchers positioned in residential apartment blocks. Even better, a hard-hitting column in an Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, quotes an Israeli paratrooper who sums up Hezbollah's tactics: "They are a lousy army. They only win when they hide behind baby carriages."

Both of these articles identify the proper response: point out that Hezbollah is responsible for all civilian casualties in this war, and refuse to allow those casualties to hobble the war effort. Stop rewarding Hezbollah for using civilians as human shields.

Instead, faced with a gory new story about civilian casualties, our own Secretary of State panicked and pressured Israel to agree to a mini-cease-fire, suspending its air war for 48 hours (which Israel, thankfully, did not fully do). According to the New York Times when Condoleezza Rice heard about a new group of Lebanese civilians killed in an Israeli airstrike--with images of the corpses splashed across TV screens in Lebanon and across the Arab world--she "appeared shaken." She then immediately pushed for the Israeli cessation, while "American officials scrambled to try to counter the wrenching TV scenes of the devastation at Qana."

Secretary Rice has a reputation as an intelligent, hard-charging woman who doesn't scare easily. Over the past few months, she has blown that reputation, caving in to Iran and its European sympathizers--and now allowing herself to be panicked into appeasement by predictable images of Lebanese civilian casualties. The Iranians have not been playing a sophisticated diplomatic game--yet they have consistently outplayed Secretary Rice.

Just as obvious as the strategy of the Iranian Axis are the destructive consequences of America's diplomatic retreat in the face of Hezbollah's war.

The French government has taken advantage of Rice's abdication and stepped in to assert a leading role in the crisis--as a defender of Iran. The French foreign minister, speaking today in Beirut, hailed Iran as the potential savior of Lebanon, describing Iran as "a great civilization which is respected and which plays a stabilizing role in the region." If the French are to be part of a "multinational force" in Southern Lebanon, will they be there to disarm Hezbollah--or to protect it?

The joke going around all the blogs recently is that it's not a World War until France surrenders. But it's not really a World War until the French become collaborators.

Similarly, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who sat on the fence for the first few weeks of the war, complaining about Israel but also calling for Hezbollah to be disarmed, sensed the shift in the political winds and threw in with Hezbollah, thanking terrorist leader Hassan Nasrallah for "all those who sacrifice their lives for the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon.''

And remember that every charge made against the Israelis in Lebanon can be applied equally to the Americans in Iraq--which means that Secretary Rice has just given a green light for Iranian-backed firebrand Muqtada al-Sadr to emulate Hezbollah and orchestrate another uprising against the US in Iraq.

The tirades of the Angry Left to the contrary, our leaders are not stupid or incompetent. If the rest of us can figure out the Iranian strategy and see through Iran's tricks, so can they. But something is neutralizing their knowledge. Something is preventing them from turning that knowledge into corresponding action.

Part of what is crippling Western leaders is the sacrifice-worship of the altruist morality, which programs them, in response to human suffering, to suspend thinking and react emotionally. Natan Sharansky recounts a discussion he had with former president Jimmy Carter about why the Palestinian-Israeli "peace process" kept failing. Carter responded, "You know, you are right, but don't try to be too rational about these things. The moment you see people suffering, you should feel solidarity with them and try to help them without thinking too much about the reasons."

But even more insidious is a kind of cognitive altruism that tells men to sacrifice, not just their interests, but their judgment, subordinating their knowledge to the opinions and prejudices of others. That is what seems to be operating here. Whatever Secretary Rice knows about the Iranians' strategy is discarded the moment lurid images of civilian casualties are splashed across the front pages of European newspapers and the broadcasts of Arab television stations. Just as, in this self-abnegating morality, you have to consider the interests of everyone except yourself--so, in this morality of cognitive self-abnegation, you have to consider everyone's opinion except your own. Thus, faced with the united force of "world opinion," the formerly "tough-minded" Secretary of State was flustered into an ignominious surrender of American interests.

This is a strange kind of war, in which we have more than enough military capability to crush the enemy's "lousy army." Nor do we lack the intellectual power to understand and counteract the enemy's strategy. But we lack the moral confidence to use both our power and our knowledge.

But in the life-and-death struggle with totalitarian Islam, there is no room for Western self-abnegation. On the contrary, what we need is a proud, righteous self-assertion, the unapologetic pursuit of America's and Israel's vital interests, unbowed by appeals to pity or to "world opinion."

In recent months, there has been a rebellion brewing on the right in protest against the Bush administration's appeasement of Iran. Secretary Rice's recent capitulation, if it goes uncorrected, ought to be the event that brings that rebellion to the boiling point, threatening President Bush with the defection of his remaining political "base." It will be a bruising political rebellion, and it should probably require the firing of Condoleezza Rice--a crushing concession for George Bush to make--to satisfy a justified fury against the administration's recent policies.

But if our leaders won't provide an assertive American national defense on their own power, we will have to demand it of them. If they won't lead the way against our enemies, we will have to lead and force them to follow.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: iran; tracinski
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last

1 posted on 08/04/2006 5:09:34 PM PDT by brain bleeds red
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

Take their oil, and give it to Iraq or Kuwait.


2 posted on 08/04/2006 5:11:20 PM PDT by Brilliant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red
Fight this thing like WWII. Fire bomb Tehran, and Damascus, Nuke Mecca and Medina. They will beg us for an unconditional surrender.
3 posted on 08/04/2006 5:11:31 PM PDT by DariusBane (I do not separate people, as do the narrow-minded, into Greeks and barbarians.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

You can bet that the Israelis are getting "Keyhole" satt photos and intel on a regular basis. I would not think for a moment that the USA is sitting passively by, not providing intel and other data to them. Terrorists and Iran (redundant) are our enemy too.


4 posted on 08/04/2006 5:12:09 PM PDT by EagleUSA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red
The joke going around all the blogs recently is that it's not a World War until France surrenders. But it's not really a World War until the French become collaborators.

Priceless.
5 posted on 08/04/2006 5:12:22 PM PDT by brain bleeds red
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

I can answer that question in one word: Democrats.


6 posted on 08/04/2006 5:12:27 PM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DariusBane

Wouldn't the french object?


7 posted on 08/04/2006 5:13:38 PM PDT by null and void (Bolton/Rice '08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

Good article. Iran is the head of the hydra of terror, and has been for thirty years.

Time for a beheading.


8 posted on 08/04/2006 5:13:41 PM PDT by exit82 (If Democrats can lead, then I'm Chuck Norris.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

Altogether now...can you say"LIBERAL POLITICAL CORRECTNESS?"


9 posted on 08/04/2006 5:13:59 PM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red
This guy makes the mistake of thinking that most leaders don't actually know what is going on. And the fact that they do makes the situation even scarier.

It is basic opportunism on the part of the 'duped'.

I hold out hope that the leaders who count in the Oval Office and Pentagon have a good handle on things.

10 posted on 08/04/2006 5:15:58 PM PDT by Monti Cello
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mr Ramsbotham

and the US media.


11 posted on 08/04/2006 5:16:04 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: exit82

That time passed twenty seven years ago when they kidnapped our diplomats and attacked our embassy. Now it's time to kill the monster and burn the remains.


12 posted on 08/04/2006 5:19:53 PM PDT by phoenix0468 (http://www.mylocalforum.com -- Go Speak Your Mind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

IMO, PC and lack of strong non-PC leadership.


13 posted on 08/04/2006 5:23:00 PM PDT by alarm rider (Those that vote for RINOS knowingly, have already admitted defeat.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red
An agenda lurks insidiously behind this article. "Secretary Rice has a reputation as an intelligent, hard-charging woman who doesn't scare easily. Over the past few months, she has blown that reputation, caving in to Iran and its European sympathizers ..." That piece of bullsh!t opinion reveals the agenda pushing this crap article which has 90% reality and 10% political agenda to spit yet again on this President and the Republican leadership, all designed to steer public opinion toward a democrat return to power! The author couldn't know 1/10 of the things going on under the radar which Secretary Rice is handling, yet this piece of crap propagandist claims she is cowering and confused. Sadly, this sort of fecal filler journalism will effect the minds of some voters and perhaps even aid the feckless democrats in the fall.
14 posted on 08/04/2006 5:26:12 PM PDT by MHGinTN (If you can read this, you've had life support from someone. Promote life support for others.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

We are fighting it. And, I think, winning.


15 posted on 08/04/2006 5:28:11 PM PDT by JohnCliftn (In War: Resolution. In Defeat: Defiance. In Victory: Magnanimity. In Peace: Good Will. - Churchill)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: null and void
Yes, but the French have already surrendered their cities to the muzzies. It used to be french wine and french bread. Now it will stale water and flat bread. Let them reap what they sew. 'c'est la vie'.
16 posted on 08/04/2006 5:30:09 PM PDT by DariusBane (I do not separate people, as do the narrow-minded, into Greeks and barbarians.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red

I think the US, Israel, Britain and some others know full well where this is headed. In that case, you just look at the current situation as Israel taking out the Iranians' Hezbollah flank before the serious stuff starts, probably right after the US elections in November.

In fact, even if that isn't the conscious plan, that is what is going to happen just through shear momentum. The only question is whether you detour through Syria or go straight to Tehran.


17 posted on 08/04/2006 5:31:33 PM PDT by FastCoyote
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brain bleeds red
Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
18 posted on 08/04/2006 5:33:40 PM PDT by AdvisorB (For a terrorist bodycount in hamistan, let the smoke clear then count the ears and divide by 2.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DariusBane
Even prior to WWII the world went through a phase like this. All Hitler wanted was a little piece of Czechoslovakia.

The simple answer is that the fear of war, and it's costs, keep free people from going lightly into such an endeavor.....even when it seems inevitable.

19 posted on 08/04/2006 5:36:56 PM PDT by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: DariusBane

Right on! This war could be won in 6 months with out using nuclear weapons if only we had the will to win it.


20 posted on 08/04/2006 5:39:34 PM PDT by FightThePower!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson