Posted on 08/04/2006 3:23:23 PM PDT by shield
AUSTIN -- A three-judge federal panel on Friday reunited Webb County into one congressional district, solidifying Hispanic voting strength in South Texas.
The U.S. Supreme Court remanded the map to the three-judge federal panel to redraw the sprawling 23rd Congressional District, which it ruled in June unconstitutionally diluted Hispanic voting strength.
“These changes restore Latino voting strength to District 23 without dividing communities of interest,” the judges said.
The panel reunited Webb County, which includes the majority-Hispanic city of Laredo, and placed it entirely in the 28th Congressional District, which is adjacent to the 23rd District. It added portions of Bexar County, which includes San Antonio, to the 23rd District.
The district stretches from Laredo to El Paso County and north to San Antonio. The high court ruled that the district boundaries drawn by Republican state legislators in 2003 diminish Hispanic voting power because a large cluster of Webb County Hispanics were divided into two different congressional districts.
The new plan also moves Kerr, Kendall, Bandera, and Real counties into the 21st Congressional District, represented by Republican Lamar Smith of San Antonio.
The 23rd District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, under the map the judges issued Friday, has a 61 percent Hispanic voting age population, compared with 51 percent under the Republican-led redistricting. It also now will be more evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at khou.com ...
I compared the election numbers for the 15th (Hinojosa), 21st (Smith), 23rd (Bonilla), 25th (Doggett) and 28th (Cuellar) CDs as drawn for 2006, 2004, 2002 and 2000 (Doggett's CD was numbered the 10th in 2000 and 2002). The redistricting changes won't be enough to defeat Bonilla, and we get some good news in the Cuellar and Doggett districts (but bad news in the Hinojosa district).
Bonilla's CD is just a tad less Republican under this new map than it was back in 2000 and 2002. The GOP percentage of the two-party vote in statewide contested races (which is what TX uses to compare district performance) was 49.3% in the 2002 elections and 53.7% in the 2004 elections for the 2006 version of the TX-23. The 49.3% for 2002 is higher than it was under the lines used in 2002 (47.5%) or 2000 (47.0%), but that is misleading, since the CD no longer includes any precincts in Laredo's Webb County and the Republicans underperformed greatly in Webb in 2002 due to the local popularity of Laredo native Tony Sanchez, who was the Democrat gubernatorial nominee and brought out the largest turnout that Webb County will ever see. The redrawn 23rd's 53.7% in the 2004 elections was a couple of points lower than the 56.4% and 55.9% under the lines used in 2002 and 2000, respectively. Still, the redrawn TX-23 probably gave President Bush between 57% and 58% in 2004, which is 2%-3%more Republican than the districts held by longtime Democrat incumbents Hinojosa and Ortiz, and given that Bonilla will not be facing Cuellar he probably won't face that strong of a reelection challenge.
The redrawn TX-28 is a far better district for the conservative Democrat Cuellar, since it added the portion of Webb County that was in Bonilla's CD and removed most of the San Antonio precincts that gave Ciro Rodriguez or another San Antonio liberal a chance to defeat him in the primary. In addition, the district is slightly more Republican than the district currently represented by Cuellar, giving the GOP 48.8% of the two-party vote in statewide contested races in 2004, as opposed to 47.6% under the lines used in 2004. Since President Bush got 53% in Cuellar's CD under the 2004 lines, he got 54% under the new lines, making it more likely that Henry Cuellar will feel free to switch to the GOP and know he will get reelected. I would *love* for Cuellar to switch, but even if he stays a Democrat I think it's great news that the new map makes him unbeatable in a Democrat primary. BTW, if we look at the results of the 2002 elections, the redrawn 28th would appear to be less Republican (the GOP got 41.1% under the 2004 map and only 36.6% under the 2006 map), but that is an illusion created by the fact that all of Webb County (where the GOP aberrationally (is that a word?) underperformed in 2002, as explained above) is now in the TX-28.
Smith's 21st CD had given the GOP 63.8% in 2002 and 60.3% in 2004, which was obviously not a good trend and may have resulted in a Democrat take-over opportunity if Smith retired in 2010. The 2006 redrawing took out its Austin and other Travis County precints (replacing them with German Country counties) and increased the GOP percentage to 68.4% in 2002 and 65.2% in 2004, making it almost 5% more Republican than before and putting it out of reach for the Democrats even in an open-seat situation.
Hinojosa's 15th CD as drawn for 2004 gave the GOP 44.3% in 2002 and 49.2% in 2004; under the new plan, the GOP percentage is reduced to 38.7% in 2002 and 45.6% in 2004. President Bush got 55% in the CD as drawn for 2004; he probably got between 51%-52% as redrawn. While Hinojosa would have been very hard to beat, I was holding up hope for a possible pick-up once he retired, but the likelihood of his retirement in 2008 or 2010 is rather low, so the drop in GOP performance in the TX-15 probably won't be a factor.
Finally, we get to Lloyd Doggett's 25th CD. As a 69% Hispanic district that went from Austin to McAllen on the border (that was somehow deemed not to be a Hispanic-majority district by Justice Kennedy and 4 liberal Justices!), it gave the GOP 30.2% in 2002 and 33.7% in 2004. However, as redrawn, it gave the GOP 44.5% in 2002 and 47.1% in 2004. I would guesstimate that the redrawn CD gave President Bush 50% in 2004, making it (i) a Democrat-leaning district---this is Texas, you know, and (ii) a district that is far more conservative than Doggett. While in 2000 Doggett represented a district (numbered TX-10 back then) carried by President Bush with 52% that year, his 2000 CD was less Republican than this one, since the 2000 CD gave the GOP only 41.8% in 2004, 5.3% lower than under the new lines. (Under the 2000 lines, the GOP did get 46.0% in 2002, 1.5% higher than under the new lines, but liberal Austin didn't really show its true colors (or have a strong turnout) in 2000 or 2002.) So Doggett will have to fight for reelection, and if we get an all-party primary on Election Day (as was the case when several TX districts were declared unconstitutional a few months prior to the 1996 elections), it may not be too late to make a run for the district this year; otherwise, there's always 2008.
Suffice it to say, I am very happy with the map drawn by the courts.
Glad to hear.... ;o) Of course, local TV said it benefited the dimwits...
I would agree with most of this in future predictions for 2006 (as I already posted in another thread), except that according to my figures the Bush% in the new TX-23 in 2004 was probably more around 54%-55%, maybe as low as 52%-53%. In the old TX-23, Bonilla did run about 6% ahead of Bush in 2004. About 1/4th of the voting population changed hands and you know, as well as I do, that this part Bexar County is historically low turnout.
I doubt though, that with Doggett getting more of Travis County that he would be more in trouble, but we'll see what happens.
Creating solid "minority" voting districts actually hurts minorities.
For example, assume 5 districts, each with 20% hispanic and 80% white. Most likely, 5 whites will get elected to Congress, but those 5 whites will each have to listen to/cater to the hispanics in their districts. And, the 20% hispanic votes in each district might be enough to cause 5 Democrats to win. Or, at the very least, the Republican candidates will have to respect the 20% Hispanic voters' needs.
Now imagine redistricting, (jerrymandering), that puts all the hispanics in one district, so that they are "guaranteed representation." The result? 1 single 100% hispanic district, and 4 100% white districts. You'll likely end up with 1 Hispanic congressman, and 4 white Republicans who won't give a rat's ass what Hispanics want, because there won't be any in their districts.
The judges do not appear to have done that much damage after all. Thank God. As hard as the liberals on the USSC were hoping for.
I wouldn't be surprised if a majority hispanic district were ruled unconstitutional even if black decided to vote for a white candidate voluntarily. It would just take the NAACP in D.C. filing suit claiming that local blacks were not given an adequate chance to have their own black candidate.
"according to my figures the Bush% in the new TX-23 in 2004 was probably more around 54%-55%, maybe as low as 52%-53%"
This is a fair explanation, since I don't really feel like going down to the details on this one. :)
Living in the Lower Rio Grande Valley has its advantages. I just got gerrymandered out of voting against Hinojosa and gerrymandered into voting against Lloyd Dogsh*t.
Brings back old times since I used to vote against Lloyd when I Llived in Austin and attended UT.
Incidentally, it is a hoot to vote the anti-incumbent straight ticket, especially when it comes to the local candidates. The Dem's get elected despite the best efforts of the Anglo minority, line their pockets for a while, get busted by the Feds, and get replaced by another bunch of losers. It is impossible to see a bigger bunch of clowns in one place without either going to an inner city gerrymandered district, or to the Ringling Brothers Circus.
Wow.... AuH2O, I am in Travis county, northwest Austin ... I was in CD-21, what will I be in now?
Thanks, got my answer looking at the detailed maps. Doggett has more of Travis, but not much. Strangely, Doggett's TX-25 was given more of west travis, a Republican area, but Lamar Smith's TX-21 goes into downtown austin still. My area remains as it was, in TX-21. If Doggett's district is more competitive, great, but we Republicans will have to work at rebuilting Travis county GOP to have a chance at that.
If you look at all the time that states are wasting in this mapping, remapping, and re-remapping...its a total waste. I've of the mind finally to throw the entire state representative race totally open. If you have 20 rep's to vote for...then its a state race all the way...first 20 guys in the polls...win. End of the story. Forget this gerrymandering garbage and constant bickering between both parties. Its a total farce. Lets be realistic...your rep doesn't really matter...they are bought off already by special interests and this district representation game...is just that...a game. Nothing else.
Thanks Auh20 for the great info. Some of the media and Forbes are saying Bonilla is in trouble and Ciro Rodriguez might run. Typica spin I guess.
Also bear in mind that Bonilla has well over $2 million in the bank...
"Thanks Auh20 for the great info. Some of the media and Forbes are saying Bonilla is in trouble and Ciro Rodriguez might run. Typica spin I guess."
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