I compared the election numbers for the 15th (Hinojosa), 21st (Smith), 23rd (Bonilla), 25th (Doggett) and 28th (Cuellar) CDs as drawn for 2006, 2004, 2002 and 2000 (Doggett's CD was numbered the 10th in 2000 and 2002). The redistricting changes won't be enough to defeat Bonilla, and we get some good news in the Cuellar and Doggett districts (but bad news in the Hinojosa district).
Bonilla's CD is just a tad less Republican under this new map than it was back in 2000 and 2002. The GOP percentage of the two-party vote in statewide contested races (which is what TX uses to compare district performance) was 49.3% in the 2002 elections and 53.7% in the 2004 elections for the 2006 version of the TX-23. The 49.3% for 2002 is higher than it was under the lines used in 2002 (47.5%) or 2000 (47.0%), but that is misleading, since the CD no longer includes any precincts in Laredo's Webb County and the Republicans underperformed greatly in Webb in 2002 due to the local popularity of Laredo native Tony Sanchez, who was the Democrat gubernatorial nominee and brought out the largest turnout that Webb County will ever see. The redrawn 23rd's 53.7% in the 2004 elections was a couple of points lower than the 56.4% and 55.9% under the lines used in 2002 and 2000, respectively. Still, the redrawn TX-23 probably gave President Bush between 57% and 58% in 2004, which is 2%-3%more Republican than the districts held by longtime Democrat incumbents Hinojosa and Ortiz, and given that Bonilla will not be facing Cuellar he probably won't face that strong of a reelection challenge.
The redrawn TX-28 is a far better district for the conservative Democrat Cuellar, since it added the portion of Webb County that was in Bonilla's CD and removed most of the San Antonio precincts that gave Ciro Rodriguez or another San Antonio liberal a chance to defeat him in the primary. In addition, the district is slightly more Republican than the district currently represented by Cuellar, giving the GOP 48.8% of the two-party vote in statewide contested races in 2004, as opposed to 47.6% under the lines used in 2004. Since President Bush got 53% in Cuellar's CD under the 2004 lines, he got 54% under the new lines, making it more likely that Henry Cuellar will feel free to switch to the GOP and know he will get reelected. I would *love* for Cuellar to switch, but even if he stays a Democrat I think it's great news that the new map makes him unbeatable in a Democrat primary. BTW, if we look at the results of the 2002 elections, the redrawn 28th would appear to be less Republican (the GOP got 41.1% under the 2004 map and only 36.6% under the 2006 map), but that is an illusion created by the fact that all of Webb County (where the GOP aberrationally (is that a word?) underperformed in 2002, as explained above) is now in the TX-28.
Smith's 21st CD had given the GOP 63.8% in 2002 and 60.3% in 2004, which was obviously not a good trend and may have resulted in a Democrat take-over opportunity if Smith retired in 2010. The 2006 redrawing took out its Austin and other Travis County precints (replacing them with German Country counties) and increased the GOP percentage to 68.4% in 2002 and 65.2% in 2004, making it almost 5% more Republican than before and putting it out of reach for the Democrats even in an open-seat situation.
Hinojosa's 15th CD as drawn for 2004 gave the GOP 44.3% in 2002 and 49.2% in 2004; under the new plan, the GOP percentage is reduced to 38.7% in 2002 and 45.6% in 2004. President Bush got 55% in the CD as drawn for 2004; he probably got between 51%-52% as redrawn. While Hinojosa would have been very hard to beat, I was holding up hope for a possible pick-up once he retired, but the likelihood of his retirement in 2008 or 2010 is rather low, so the drop in GOP performance in the TX-15 probably won't be a factor.
Finally, we get to Lloyd Doggett's 25th CD. As a 69% Hispanic district that went from Austin to McAllen on the border (that was somehow deemed not to be a Hispanic-majority district by Justice Kennedy and 4 liberal Justices!), it gave the GOP 30.2% in 2002 and 33.7% in 2004. However, as redrawn, it gave the GOP 44.5% in 2002 and 47.1% in 2004. I would guesstimate that the redrawn CD gave President Bush 50% in 2004, making it (i) a Democrat-leaning district---this is Texas, you know, and (ii) a district that is far more conservative than Doggett. While in 2000 Doggett represented a district (numbered TX-10 back then) carried by President Bush with 52% that year, his 2000 CD was less Republican than this one, since the 2000 CD gave the GOP only 41.8% in 2004, 5.3% lower than under the new lines. (Under the 2000 lines, the GOP did get 46.0% in 2002, 1.5% higher than under the new lines, but liberal Austin didn't really show its true colors (or have a strong turnout) in 2000 or 2002.) So Doggett will have to fight for reelection, and if we get an all-party primary on Election Day (as was the case when several TX districts were declared unconstitutional a few months prior to the 1996 elections), it may not be too late to make a run for the district this year; otherwise, there's always 2008.
Suffice it to say, I am very happy with the map drawn by the courts.