New Poll Shows Lieberman Losing Ground

ap/nyt ^ | 8/3/06

[mathprof]

Millionaire businessman Ned Lamont opened a double-digit lead over veteran Sen. Joe Lieberman less than a week before Connecticut's Democratic primary, raising the possibility that the three-term senator may have to run as an independent in November, a new poll released Thursday shows.

Lamont, a political novice, had support from 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac University poll, while Lieberman had support from 41 percent of voters. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A similar survey July 20 showed Lamont with a slight advantage for the first time in the campaign.

''Senator Lieberman's campaign bus seems to be stuck in reverse,'' poll director Douglas Schwartz said. ''Despite visits from former President Bill Clinton and other big-name Democrats, Lieberman has not been able to stem the tide to Lamont.'[snip]

The poll, however, indicated that Lamont's support is in large part a backlash: 65 percent of Lamont supporters said their vote is mainly against Lieberman. Schwartz said he had never seen a race where an incumbent has stirred up such negativity within his own party.

The Lieberman campaign said the poll showed much work must be done by to win Tuesday's primary.[snip]

The telephone survey of 890 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from July 25 to 31.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Does the Republican candidate have any chance with the scenario being Lamont & Lieberman splitting the dem vote?"

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If a decent GOP candidate was running, absolutely. But the loser who's the only Republican running in the primary is polling at around 10%, and that was before it became known that he's a high roller at the Foxwoods Casino. The state GOP is trying to convince him to drop out and get someone better to run, and I hope it is successful in its efforts.

[mwl1]

GOP analysts want Lieberman to lose the primary and force him to run as an independent. The strong belief is that Lieberman on an independent line will greatly help the down-ballot GOP congressional incumbents, including Nancy Johnson and others.

[mwl1]

Lieberman as an independent will also force the DSCC to fund Lamont in some measure, thus further draining their resources elsewhere. Essentially, you'll have an open Democratic primary in the general election.

[ChildOfThe60s]

I haven't followed it at all closely. Is my impression that LaMont is the media's darling and favorite, correct? That they want Lieberman to go down for backing Bush on Iraq?

[Nonstatist]

Whats the Democrat/Republican breakdown in Connecticut? If its 50-30-20 (ie 20 independent) and Lieberman gets 40% of the Democrap vote, he'd need 60 % of everybody else; quite doable, I would think.

[Buck W.]

If he does run as an (I), how likely is it that he and Lamont split the dem vote and the Republican wins? I'm not that close to CT politics.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"GOP analysts want Lieberman to lose the primary and force him to run as an independent. The strong belief is that Lieberman on an independent line will greatly help the down-ballot GOP congressional incumbents, including Nancy Johnson and others."

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That's an odd theory. If Lieberman loses and runs as an independent, turnout among liberal Democrats (who won't vote for someone with an R next to their name even if they're as liberal as Johnson, Shays or Simmons) in the general election will be huge, and the additional independent voters that Lieberman will bring to the polls may be just as likely to vote for the Democrat House candidate as for the RINO incumbent. On the other hand, if Lieberman manages to beat Lamont in the primary (which at this point appears to be unlikely), Lamont won't be on the ballot and thousands of liberal Democrats will simply stay home on Election Day, thereby costing the liberal Democrat opponents of Johnson, Shays and Simmons (and, for that matter, Governor Rell) much needed votes.

Since (i) the GOP has no chance of winning the Senate race even with Lieberman running as an independent (unless we get the loser GOP nominee to drop out and a better candidate replaces him on the ballot), (ii) Lamont would be an even more liberal Senator than Lieberman, plus is younger and would likely stay in office longer, and (iii) keeping Lamont off the general-election ballot would benefit our RINO House and gubernatorial incumbents (which are not quite as bad as their liberal Democrat opponents), I would rather have Lieberman beat Lamont in the primary.

[oceanview]

yup.

[Clintonfatigued]

Nutmeg, another one for your ping list.

[Clintonfatigued]

Now, the $1 million question is, "Can the GOP get Alan Schlesinger to drop out of the race?"

[Antoninus]

This election should teach us one thing:

Criteria #1 for running as a Democrat: You must hate your country and root for her enemies to be victorious.

[nutmeg]

Thanks... this was all over the CT media today. I'll ping my CT list...

[nutmeg]

Connecticut ping!

Please Freepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent Connecticut ping list.

[CTGOPPER]

About 942,000, or 45 percent, of the state's approximately 2.1 million voters are unaffiliated. They're the largest block, followed by about 702,000 Democrats and about 456,000 Republicans.

[Nonstatist]

Is it an open primary, or can non-Democrats vote in it?

[Rightwing Conspiratr1]

With the retirement of Jumpin Jim Jeffords, under the "Lieberman wins as an independent" scenario, would he then be the only Independent?

I think the Socialist Sanders is running for a Senate seat and will win in Vermont.

[CTGOPPER]

Only democrats can vote in the primary.