Cuba a Powder Keg

Human Events ^ | 8/2/06 | Humberto Fontova

[rodguy911]

If the island ever opened up there would need to be 1,000's of condos just for all the lawyers who would be sorting out deeds of nationalized property for the next 20 years. There is scarcely a Cuban refugee in Miami who doesn't have a story about his or a friend of his property being taken by Castro.

[rodguy911]

The horror stories from the island are legendary. I even experienced on myself. I employ several Cuban/American ladies in Miami who do piece works for me in their homes. These gals are salt of the earth and the ultimate capitalists. Family is supreme always.
One day at a home of one lady she got a call from Cuba. Suddenly she dropped the phone and broke into hysterical tears.
Seems her sister had poured gasoline all over herself and lit herself on fire.
Tragic, but not that unheard of. Cuba is a true commie hell hole for most.It's a story you don't hear too much about but it's there and rears its ugly head from time to time.

[rod1]

So instead of a Five Year Plan it sounds like Raul may need a AA 12 point plan??

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Nothing's going to happen after Fidel croaks. The ruling elite isn't going to just give up power any more than the North Viets will.

[Marine_Uncle]

" All may not be as it seems."
Agree. It is to easy to project a given scenario that could develop, if indeed Castro has passed on to hell.
But what represents the true realities. Probably not even most Cubans living on the island or elsewhere really know what would end up happening.
His brother will have an iron rule. Why should we think anything would really change. I would think nothing will change. Business as usual. Who would challenge his authority.

[Luis Gonzalez]

There will be blood.

[Moonman62]

If the island ever opened up there would need to be 1,000's of condos just for all the lawyers who would be sorting out deeds of nationalized property for the next 20 years. There is scarcely a Cuban refugee in Miami who doesn't have a story about his or a friend of his property being taken by Castro.

I wonder if those property claims would give us the basis to send in the military.

[ClaireSolt]

How many Cuban Americans will start agitating to go back?

[Jacob Kell]

Well, I fear that assuming that Cuban communism will die with Fidel is a little premature. After all, Fidel is about 80, if I'm not mistaken. He no doubt knew for quite some time that he could well die at any moment, so he made his succesion plans years ago. Also, Raul isn't much younger than him, so the plans would probably factor into account his passing too. Besides, a lot of the Cubans who would resist communism probably left the island.

[rodguy911]

Possibly but we have failed to act in many countries for far less, but who knows.

[rodguy911]

A few, but most only for weekend homes or to rescue relatives stranded in that hell hole of a dictatorship.

[ContemptofCourt]

If the island ever opened up there would need to be 1,000's of condos just for all the lawyers who would be sorting out deeds of nationalized property for the next 20 years. There is scarcely a Cuban refugee in Miami who doesn't have a story about his or a friend of his property being taken by Castro.

Yeah, people here on FR have grandoise dreams of a "free" cuba after Castro. In reality, once Cuba decides to turn the corner, things will not get better quickly.

I see a huge fight coming between "Cuban-Americans" and "Cubans" over who will get the spoils....as you said, every Cuban in S. FL. has a story about Castro taking their property, and they are all salivating over the chance to go back to Cuba and reclaim their property. Between that and the corruption that will occur as big business tries to capitalize on the situation, Cuba will be a mess...and of course, the poor Cubans will get screwed once again.

[Tallguy]

Other than tourism cuba had income from farming,sugar, other stuff, a few cigars not like in the past however,(they destroyed their soil form overproduction) drug smuggling, counterfeiting,and soon oil drilling.

Basically a plantation economy plus tourism. It's the same problem in much of the Caribbean, more or less. Economies based on one or 2 commodities are subject to boom & bust, but they are also easily monopolized by the political elites. Oil, sugar, tobacco, etc.

[Tallguy]

If the island ever opened up there would need to be 1,000's of condos just for all the lawyers who would be sorting out deeds of nationalized property for the next 20 years. There is scarcely a Cuban refugee in Miami who doesn't have a story about his or a friend of his property being taken by Castro.

I figure that the Miami Cubans will probably have to settle for a financial settlement. Some of the properties siezed/abandoned in the '60s have been developed by European & Canadian corporations. Plus you have the emerging Cuban economy to worry about. My guess is that the US Government will back a Cuban plan to basically screw the emigre community in the interests of establishing a sound financial basis for the island.

It's going to be a legal tangle trying to establish a value upon which the Cuban government can establish a payout figure. There's going to be a lot of work for real estate appraisers, too.

[aculeus]

Cuba is a very efficient totalitarian state. They rate zero on economics but 10 on the machinery of suppression.

The best we can hope for is emergence of a China-style state: economic liberalization now, political liberalization in decades.