Tropical Storm Chris

NOAA ^ | 2006-08-01 | Forecaster Stewart

[Clive]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

[steve8714]

Perhaps it is your context meter that needs recaalibration..and I stand by my "meaningful" statement.

[steve8714]

Is the cinder block/steel roof construction I saw in Daytona last time in a good deal for withstanding a hurricane?

[Gekko The Great]

We have the same effect here. I'll see a price posted in the morning at a station on the way in to work and that same afternoon the price will have jumped by another 10 cents a gallon. So in an 8-hour period there was such a huge change in "supply and demand"? Don't make me laugh.

Bunch of profiteering greedheads is all they are. Supply and demand my a$$, they're just gouging, the lousy rats.

[Elle Bee]

Mortar and Brick and a steel rivetted roof (I have the roof riveted every 6") and roll down steel shutters are the way to go..... the shutters can be deployed by a couple of taps on the blackberry

I would recomend kevelar screen for open patio/ balcony areas and a propane generator hard wired in with at least 400 gallons

Crank up the TEVO and the DVD and ride out the storm

.

[Dog Gone]

The circulation is certainly tightening. It might be a hurricane already.

[Clive]

Here is advisory 8 as of 1100 AST:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH Tropical Cyclo

[Clive]

Looks like it might track too far north for the Greater Antilles to take much of the steam out of it.

[Fawn]

I also am still waiting to repair my roof from last year....up here in Palm Beach County.

[zeaal]

Oh great ... heading right for the Gulf!

[nralife]

If it makes it into the Gulf, where do you think it will go from there?

Texas? New Orleans? Florida? Mexico?

[zeaal]

If it remains on the same path it is on now it appears it is headed for Texas.

[Clive]

Here is advisory 8A as of 1400 AST 2006-08-02:

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHRIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Note the hurricane watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

[goalinestan]

I'll bet gas prices jump a nickel just on the news that a storm has been named.

I'll see your nickel and raise you a dime.

Did we ever have hurricanes before 2005?

[Positive]

Looks like Chis might make landfall somewhere from Florida to Mexico...

What I want to know is...

Why hasn't Bush done anything yet?

Where the heck is FEMA now?

Didn't Bush say he's heading for Crawford today?

Wasn't Bush in Crawford during Katrina?

What the heck is Bush doing taking a vacation while all these poor people are still defenceless by Bush and Cheney and Delay and Haliburton and Rumsfeld and...?

Shouldn't a Chris Commission be impaneled to look into this scandal and report to Congress?

Don't you wish that President Gore hadn't been cheated out of his office...he knows how to deal with climate doesn't he?

Or is this just another Inconvenient Truth?

Hunh?

Hunh?

Hunh?

What do the polls say?

My ex-wife is currently spending some of my alimony payments on a Caribean Cruise until Friday...???

[goalinestan]

And where the heck is my $2,000 debit card?

That's the real question.

[steve8714]

Now if Cali would wean itself of using Natgas for electric production...we could run cars on that stuff.

[Clive]

Here is advisory 9A as of 2000 AST 2006-08-02

000
WTNT33 KNHC 022359
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...OUTER BANDS OF CHRIS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT HAS GENERALLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

RECENT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Clive]

Here is advisory 10A as of 0200 AST 2006-08-03

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030551
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS BECOMING DISORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHRIS.

CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...65.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[abb]

The Weather Channel is saddened...

[JoeSixPack1]