Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
I imagine there's something to it.....and I don't like it
What did Rush think was the reason? (I could guess, however what do I know?)
susie
Bull!
It might be time to shake all the dead or "liberal"branches off the "big Tent"tree.
I guess it has nothing to do with the RNC abandoning Joe Sixpack. There is a complete disconnect between the elite GOPers and the base. And no amount of screaming from the base makes any impression.
The number might be a bit high, but it is not unreasonable if the election were held today. My best guess would be around 25. I still rate House control a tossup however, because by election day, partisan alignments will tend to reassert themselves, and I suspect most to the lower tier races will be off the table.
A 30 seat loss for the GOP would be a nightmare disaster. While the Dems lead in generic polling by double digits in many cases, in individual House campaigns the GOP still holds a majority of seats.
Democrats will begin impeachment proceedings if they win the House. If they win both Houses of Congress, Katy, bar the door!
"It's the lack of principle, STUPID!" Ping.
If no Republican utters the word "comprehensive" out loud for the next 100 days, everything will be fine.
NOT ONE.
The word should be banished from the GOP lexicon.
We going to seriously miss the RINOs when
PELOSI, BARNEY FRANK, and
JOHN CONYERS and other radicals and Liberals are running the House.
I don't think the "I Hate Bush" crowd has grown any larger
I heard it, and Rush made really no personal commentary on it -- he said he just felt he should share it, though just prior to reading the info, he warned the listeners that they were not going to like what they were about to hear ...
I ain't buyin' it. About 40 House seats are considered vulnerable by most accounts, 30 GOP and 10 Dem is the approx. breakdown. So the Dems would need to win every one of them to come up with these numbers. This leak (or leaks) is intended to light a fire under some "real conservatives" threatening to sit things out and the folks who just aren't paying attention yet.
That would explain why the GOP wants to buy votes with an increase in the minimum wage.
Ping to my above
"I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever."
On the afternoon of the last British elections it was mentioned in threads on here that he had announced on his show that exit polls showed the Conservatives winning by a landslide.
This was in the afternoon UK time, some hours before the polls closed and no exit polls had been released (legally they cannot be released until 10pm). When the exit polls were released they predicted a Labour majority of 66 which was actually spot on with the actual result.
Who knows who was making up that info, but it was way off beam either way.
The generic lead that Democrats are holding so far (10% among registered voters) is similar to 2004. Among likely voters, Democrats probably hold a 6-7% generic lead.
**Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.**
In this day and age where people only answer phone calls made by numbers they know (caller ID) and cell phones and decline in land lines I just don't see how any polls can be accurate any more.
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