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Frightening internal polling (House GOP to lose 30 seats?)
RedState ^ | Jul 30th, 2006 | HoosierTeacher

Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface

Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.

It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.

One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.

Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.

Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.

Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.

Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.

Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).

"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006polls; bushbasherswonderwhy; conservabotstoblame; election2006; electionconngress; elephanteatsownhead; geeiwonderwhy; predictions; timetolookinmirror; wearedoomed
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To: WOSG
OK

You said this "NO WE DIDNT. %age of GDP basis its lower than under Reagan!" What the ... Are you kidding me? Do you try to make that argument with associates?? The budget jumps from 1.4 trillion to 2.2 and you say that?? As far as I am concerned, doubling the size of government is not conservative at all.

Then you qouted my immigration statement and replied with this "dont infer that Dems wouldnt be much worse" I did not even come slose to impling that. They suck really bad and would get us all killed then blame us for the problems they created.

Then you said this "And your solution is to repeat some of the MSM spin! LOL." Where on earth did that come from? Have you even listened to the fustration comming from the members of FR. WE have been complaining about the our sides ability to get the word out on all of the issues. We need to atttack!!! on every issue every day and all night!!!! Then you said this "but it is 100% because of not enough conservatives" as a reason to do what America wants us to do?? We need to put pressure through a consistant and strong message! Not silence...
321 posted on 07/31/2006 12:48:49 AM PDT by grapeape (Hope is not a method - Gen Hugh Shelton)
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To: Moonman62

The Big Bad Oil Companies have got to be spending all that moolah on SOMETHING. I'd like to be a vendor of that SOMETHING.


322 posted on 07/31/2006 12:55:28 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck
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To: Coop

That's what I've read as well. (From Michael Barone?) The Dems would need a perfect night to make those kinds of gains.


323 posted on 07/31/2006 1:02:32 AM PDT by Redcloak (Speak softly and wear a loud shirt.)
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To: Coop
'most of these "real conservatives" will not be posting on this forum'

The only way the Republicans WILL hold both houses is if the conservatives and "real conservatives" go the polls to make it happen...it won't occur because of Divine Intervention, and it won't occur without NUMBERS of Republicans successfully over-coming the gag reflex as they vote for the RINO's to prevent a Democrat takeover.

324 posted on 07/31/2006 3:04:30 AM PDT by traditional1
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To: Coop

Speak for yourself.

The GOP has put themselves in this position.

If they aren't smart enough to figure out how to fix it, then they deserve to have their asses handed to them in November.


325 posted on 07/31/2006 5:32:35 AM PDT by Leatherneck_MT (In a world where Carpenters come back from the dead, ALL things are possible.)
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To: Hildy
I've been away from a computer, so I'll respond to your post now ...

Here are the reasons why Limbaugh & Coulter are not lackeys & messengers for the RNC in this instance or any other, and would not be called by the RNC for said purpose, nor play said role if asked:

1) Both (each in their own independent way) are loyal Conservatives and only vote Republican for the same reason many FReepers do, because that is the only practical choice pragmatic conservatives have.

2) Both (again, each in their own independent way) are regularly and publicly critical of the RNC, of the Bush Administration, and of various Republican congress critters.

326 posted on 07/31/2006 7:02:58 AM PDT by Babu ('guv-mint' - doesn't taste good, and isn't good for you either, except in very LIMITED quanitities.)
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To: STARWISE
Mr. Google says he is. Type in 'is robert novak a registered democrat' and you will find out at least one reason that he is such a critter.
327 posted on 07/31/2006 8:14:10 AM PDT by mountainfolk (God bless President George Bush)
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To: STARWISE

I would much prefer to have candidates I actually felt good about. If we refuse to even talk about the idea of not supporting Rinos, then our Republican party will have more and more of them. If some of us talking about not supporting them puts the fear of God into the party, whats wrong with that? If they believe they have our vote simply because they are better than the horrible alternative, why would they ever change?

susie


328 posted on 07/31/2006 8:39:52 AM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: Howlin

See it how you want. But don't complain when the Republican party and the Democrat party are virtually indistinguishable.
susie


329 posted on 07/31/2006 8:40:57 AM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: brytlea

Yeah, I can hardly tell the difference in the GOP and these people:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1674750/posts?page=66#66


330 posted on 07/31/2006 8:53:21 AM PDT by Howlin (Pres.Bush ought to be ashamed of himself for allowing foreign countries right on our borders!!~~Zook)
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To: RFEngineer

Wow, you are clueless.

It's simple math for those with fully developed brains.

Conservatives VOTE because they know what went into making that VOTE possible.

To NOT VOTE is UN-AMERICAN.

Therefore, since conservatives are not un-American, I do not worry about the 2006 Election.


331 posted on 07/31/2006 9:17:00 AM PDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: grapeape

"You said this "NO WE DIDNT. %age of GDP basis its lower than under Reagan!" What the ... Are you kidding me? Do you try to make that argument with associates?? The budget jumps from 1.4 trillion to 2.2 and you say that??"

And if the economy increases commensurately in nominal dollar terms, the burden on the economy is the same.

I'm not saying we shouldnt have more fiscal restraint, I'm saying please keep the right perspective.

I wont quibble with your other points, as my basic point is you make a 'sky is falling' over-statement of the problems with Republicans in a way that is harmful not helpful to advancing conservative agenda.


"We need to atttack!!!"
Yes we do. Now is not the time to start a circular firing squad.

"Then you said this "but it is 100% because of not enough conservatives" as a reason to do what America wants us to do?? "

My point is 30 more conservatives in the House and 10 more in the Senate and we'd have a majority singing our tune.
WE DONT GET THERE BY INFIGHTING BUT BY DEFEATING THE LEFT.

As Reagan put it, someone on your side 80% is your ally not your enemy.


332 posted on 07/31/2006 9:24:54 AM PDT by WOSG
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To: Howlin

PICS OF THE MAYBE DEMS MAJORITY... GOOD ONE HOWLIN.


333 posted on 07/31/2006 9:26:32 AM PDT by WOSG
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To: rface

This is very troubling. Rush is the last person to act like chicking little. However, I can see why polls numbers are like this due to the poor job of the GOP to sell themselves and their accomplishments, and I don't like relying on the incompetence of the democrats.


334 posted on 07/31/2006 9:28:13 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Leatherneck_MT

What's this "They" ... it's "WE"...

If "WE" dont fix this, *WE* will get our assess handed to us in November, and *WE*, the patriots and conservatives, will suffer in the next few years under the idiocracy of the Liberal Democrats.


335 posted on 07/31/2006 9:31:19 AM PDT by WOSG
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To: KC_Conspirator

"I don't like relying on the incompetence of the democrats."

Indeed. You can always count on the Democrats to let you down, and I suspect they will let us down there as well, by looking (thanks to MSM putting massive rouge on the pig) better than they really are, at least past election day.


336 posted on 07/31/2006 9:32:38 AM PDT by WOSG
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To: Coop

Coop great post about Hoyer. It shows you how many weak kneed freepers we have here. It is not even August for God's sake. Sure we would lose the house now, but everything tightens, including internals, after Labor day.


337 posted on 07/31/2006 10:04:57 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: new yorker 77

New Yorker right on. Too bad we have our own spinners at FR who are wobbly and do not post all the facts.


338 posted on 07/31/2006 10:06:40 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

Nice try, troll.


339 posted on 07/31/2006 10:08:47 AM PDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: Reagan Man
I watched Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas less than 30 days from the 1994 congressional election discussing their battleground poll and they included the generic congressional ballot question which put the Dems up by nearly 10 points. We heard the same thing about the right track/wrong track numbers in 2004 also as well as W's approval rating.

I'm not in denial that the polls are worse now that in the last off-year election. But do you think the DNC is going to pick up 30 seats basely on a generic question?

340 posted on 07/31/2006 10:15:17 AM PDT by bpjam (Remember our fallen Marines from Beirut. Hezbollah deserves no peace.)
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