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Behind the Israeli Cabinet's Decisions (Is Israel Relaying A Cave-In Message To Hezbollah?)
Stratfor ^ | 07.27.2006 | Stratfor

Posted on 07/27/2006 6:50:14 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay

Israeli security Cabinet led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decided the military campaign in south Lebanon would not be expanded, and any modifications to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation, such as deploying more troops, would require Cabinet approval.

Israel is essentially broadcasting to the world that its political and military circles are severely divided over the current operation, and it might have no choice but to cave in to diplomatic pressure to put an end to the fighting and draw up a cease-fire. This might not be true to Israeli thinking, but it is certainly a message they are trying to send to Hezbollah's chain of command. Which then raises the question: Why?

The thought of Israel even considering scaling down its military operation at this point -- though golden news for Hezbollah -- carries devastating consequences for Israel. If the fighting were to come to a halt over the next few days, Hezbollah would claim victory and present itself as the only Arab force capable of standing up to Israeli aggression...surviving a fight against Israel represents a major win for the Islamist militant movement and sponsors in Iran and Syria -- something Israel, the United States and surrounding Arab regimes are unable to cope with.

It strikes us as exceedingly peculiar that Israel, a country with a heavy track record of fighting experience despite its youth, is so intent on promoting the idea its defense and political figures are running in circles trying to revise their military strategy while Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is brimming with confidence in his regular video appearances. It is simply not intelligent war strategy to expose your weaknesses in the midst of a major war campaign --unless your objective is to spread disinformation to prepare for a larger surprise.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: aoualiriver; basharalassad; bekaavalley; bentjbail; dontgowobbly; ehudolmert; golanibrigade; hezbollah; idf; israel; lebanon; litaniriver; military; nasrallah; syria
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PoliWatch.Org's David R. Remer wrote:
"Terrorists are not counting on winning through force, but on winning more battles by surrender."

So will Israel's "cave-in" broadcast give Hezbollah, through this military and Cabinet divide, a sense of victory?

Remer goes on to say, "If civilized society continues to surrender those laws and principles which made them civilized and free, they lose battles to the terrorists. Fear dictates its own behavior and observes no principles. Fear seeks to either flee, or become more frightening than that which it fears. If civilized nations and their leaders act out of fear, they will lose to the terrorists. Terrorists are provoking civilized society to act afraid. They are provoking nations leaders to either cower, or counter with such violence and horror as to exceed that of the terrorists themselves. And in so doing, terrorists hope to show the world's people that the so called civilized nations are no better than the terrorists themselves. If they are allowed to show the world this, they succeed in creating a power struggle for the hearts and minds of the world's people."

My question simply is: Can a civilized society operating under civilized laws successfully wage an exploited media 24/7 prime-time war against an uncivilized society composed of terrorists-butchers, thugs and murderers?

1 posted on 07/27/2006 6:50:16 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: fight_truth_decay

I think we need to wait. Time may answer that question.


2 posted on 07/27/2006 6:53:26 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: fight_truth_decay

Not without message control. Not without winning the propaganda war.


3 posted on 07/27/2006 7:00:06 PM PDT by marron
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To: fight_truth_decay

If the purveyors of political correctness prevail, then Israel is doomed.


4 posted on 07/27/2006 7:02:08 PM PDT by vox humana
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To: fight_truth_decay

maybe Israel is just trying to set the islamo nazi's up for a dirty nuke! I like my terrorist nice and well done.


5 posted on 07/27/2006 7:02:22 PM PDT by MAD-AS-HELL (Put a mirror to the face of the republican party and all you'll see is a Donkey.)
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To: fight_truth_decay

Civiled societies civiled laws are TOO ambiguos and polically correct for the liberal bleeding hearts watching biased media 24/7 to allow it regardless of who it is, Soddam Insane, Kim Jong Makes me Ill, Stinky Imamadman, Sheehan Chavez, or the Koran kamikazee's.


6 posted on 07/27/2006 7:05:18 PM PDT by diverteach
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To: fight_truth_decay
Sure, easy as pie.

Can it remain a democracy and win? That is entirely up to its free people. If they want to, easy as pie. If they don't, no.

7 posted on 07/27/2006 7:07:19 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: fight_truth_decay

It's a coalition government. The lefties have too much power there right now. Shimon Peres is their equivalent of VP now.


8 posted on 07/27/2006 7:08:43 PM PDT by aynrandfreak (The Left hates America)
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To: Perdogg

".....unless your objective is to spread disinformation to prepare for a larger surprise."

Nasrallah always talks of "surprises".....hopefully IDF will just serve one


9 posted on 07/27/2006 7:10:16 PM PDT by Vn_survivor_67-68
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To: fight_truth_decay
Israel is essentially broadcasting to the world that its political and military circles are severely divided over the current operation, and it might have no choice but to cave in to diplomatic pressure to put an end to the fighting and draw up a cease-fire.

Why would that be surprising?

We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies, we want that we will be able to live in an entirely different environment of relations with our enemies. We want them to be our friends, our partners, our good neighbors, and I believe that this is not impossible.

10 posted on 07/27/2006 7:11:43 PM PDT by Sabramerican (Hold the Rice, Serve Bolton.)
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To: fight_truth_decay

I think it is what it is. Israel does not want to commit the forces and firepower necessary to win decisively. That may change, but at this time Israel does not seem to have the stomach for an all out fight. They are too afraid of taking losses and too frightened of the international whining which will ensue if Israel began delivering crushing blows.

As a result, at this moment in time, and with terrorist forces in Lebanon having not returned the 2 Israeli prisoners and still maintaining the capacity to lob 100+ missiles in Israel each day, Hizbullah is winning.

It has been truly sad to see Israel unwilling to fight to win. It is amazing to me that we in the West still fail to understand the true scale of what we are up against.


11 posted on 07/27/2006 7:18:38 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: fight_truth_decay
Some more interesting stuff in that report:
The Israeli Cabinet also agreed to send forces up to the Aouali River -- just north of Sidon in Lebanon -- as a necessary move to destroy Hezbollah's rocket-launching platforms, according to Israeli radio. This is an extensive reach into Lebanon that would place the IDF within striking distance of the Bekaa Valley -- Hezbollah's main base of operations. We also have received indications that reserves belonging to Israel's elite fighting force, the Golani Brigade, have already moved north up to the Bekaa Valley. Fighting on Hezbollah's turf in the Bekaa Valley will undoubtedly be the most difficult stage of Israel's military campaign. At the same time, moving ground forces into the Bekaa is also necessary for Israel to meet its objective of sterilizing Hezbollah's military capabilities.

Moving into the Bekaa Valley also complicates matters with Syria, which could very well view an Israeli push into the Bekaa as a trigger for a Syrian military response. Major smuggling routes for heroin and opium run through the Bekaa and provide a major source of income for Hezbollah forces and Alawite businessmen.


12 posted on 07/27/2006 7:20:38 PM PDT by untenured
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To: fight_truth_decay

"My question simply is: Can a civilized society operating under civilized laws successfully wage an exploited media 24/7 prime-time war against an uncivilized society composed of terrorists-butchers, thugs and murderers?"

In my opinion, if the media is not on your side, no.

The media, from what I have seen, is not on the side of the Israelis or the Americans.

Both the Israelis and Americans should keep the reporters as far from the fighting as they can be kept. Issue reports through public information officers on the progress or outcome of the battles.

As far as the reporters going to the enemy side, they should be considered enemy agents and killed where encountered.

I don't know about Israel but I do know that if it were not for the reporters and Democrat Party neither the war in Iraq nor the war in Afganistan would have lasted past 6 months.

If they stop before completing the job, they will live to sorely regret that decision.


13 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:16 PM PDT by sport (cognizes)
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To: fight_truth_decay
I think that Israel does not want to chase the Hezbos away.
14 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:17 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (999-TNS)
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To: Longbow1969

GOd help us if Israel loses this battle.


15 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:56 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: Longbow1969
And, Israel continues to hold prisoner all the Palestinians that Hamas and Hezbollah said they wanted to trade for.

At the same time living conditions in South Lebanon have reached rock bottom, where they'll remain for a very long time too.

Best of all the IDF has had a chance to resurvey some of these areas to see what new holes have been dug.

16 posted on 07/27/2006 7:23:41 PM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: fight_truth_decay
No, the weak center-left, commies, cults, and tyrants run the world right now.

And most of their citizens, including Americans, just want it all the "icky" everyday stuff to go away.

An occasional blowing up of innocents on a train, bus, plane, in a cafe, club or school is OK, since it only happens once every couple of months.

And that's fine since we are soooooo good at mourning, crying, candle lighting, praying, and "coming together" in victimhood, for about 2 weeks.

Then it's back to Blockbuster, Oprah, People Mag, and soon, Monday Night Football.
17 posted on 07/27/2006 7:26:42 PM PDT by roses of sharon
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To: untenured

Thanks, I was allowed only 300 words..and subscription link...at that.


18 posted on 07/27/2006 7:34:23 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: untenured

Is it possible that Israel is trying to lure Syria into attaking IDF troops in Lebanon?


19 posted on 07/27/2006 7:38:58 PM PDT by airborne (Satan's greatest trick was convincing people he doesn't exist.)
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To: muawiyah
"Israel continues to hold prisoner all the Palestinians that Hamas and Hezbollah said they wanted to trade for."

The Pali's do not care about those prisoners. Remember, these arr a people who train kids to blow themselves up in order to kill a few Jews.

It is delusional to think they care about those prisoners the Israeli's hold.
20 posted on 07/27/2006 7:50:58 PM PDT by JSteff
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