Posted on 07/26/2006 8:08:39 PM PDT by LdSentinal
Democrat Jim Pederson is losing ground to Republican Sen. Jon Kyl in their race for the state’s Senate seat, according to a Rocky Mountain Poll released on Tuesday.
Pederson’s poll numbers are tied closely to his television advertising, said research director Earl de Berge of Phoenixbased Behavior Research Center, which conducted the poll.
When Pederson purchased TV commercials in bulk earlier during the campaign, the gap between the challenger and the incumbent narrowed. However, after Pederson went off the air for about a month, the gap widened again, de Berge said.
A Rocky Mountain Poll in May showed Kyl ahead with 40 percent, followed by Pederson with 33 percent — a difference of just seven percentage points. At the time, both campaigns were on the air.
The July survey showed Kyl with 45 percent and Pederson with 27 percent — a difference of 18 percentage points. The statewide survey of 627 voters was conducted during a twoweek period that ended July 21, the same day Pederson launched his current wave of TV commercials.
“In the long run, if Pederson is to be successful in his campaign, it is clear that he will need to keep his name and ideas before voters with paid media,” de Berge said.
Pederson runs a considerable risk by “pulsing” his campaign by alternating periods of heavy TV advertising with no TV advertising, he said.
The July survey also showed 3 percent of respondents supported Libertarian Richard Mack, while 25 percent were undecided.
Neither Pederson’s nor Kyl’s campaigns put too much stock in the survey.
Pederson spokesman Mark Bergman said the new poll is inconsistent with internal campaign polls that show Pederson gaining on Kyl.
Kyl campaign spokeswoman Vicki Mata Myles said campaign officials are encouraged by the new poll, but still expect the race to tighten.
Kyl led Pederson among both men, 50 percent to 22 percent, and women, 39 percent to 32 percent.
Kyl also led among Republicans, 79 percent to 5 percent; among independents, 27 percent to 24 percent; and among whites, 50 percent to 25 percent.
Pederson led Kyl among Democrats, 55 percent to 19 percent; and among nonwhites, 51 percent to 26 percent.
Mack garnered no more than 5 percent among any single demographic group.
Pedersen is pedestrian, at best. Lame ideas. Standard boilerplate talking points. Yawn.
Kyl is a good guy
Funny how Republicans suddenly get more popular around election time. I think the race was never close but the newspapers figure that won't sell papers.
Coming out two months ahead of the election with the fact the GOP candidate is 25% ahead in an HONEST poll would put a blanket on things, and could possibly lead the GOP faithful to stay home.
Pedersen's ads were interesting....
He never mentioned once that he was a Democrat.
Perhaps his numbers went up because folks didn't know he was a rat....
he will be, "nobody's senator but ours"
Kyl also led among Republicans, 79 percent to 5 percent; among independents, 27 percent to 24 percent; and among whites, 50 percent to 25 percent."Put another way," 'Civ added, "Pederson just exceeds half of the Democrat vote, which is probably somewhat less numerous in the first place, while only five per cent of Republicans support him." Looks like the landslide is coming to bury the Dhimmicrat candidate.
Pederson led Kyl among Democrats, 55 percent to 19 percent; and among nonwhites, 51 percent to 26 percent.
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