Posted on 07/25/2006 7:39:51 PM PDT by LdSentinal
TAMPA - Attorney General Charlie Crist may be running away with the Republican nomination in the governor's race, a new poll for The Tampa Tribune and WFLA, News Channel 8, shows.
Crist leads Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher 55 percent to 24 percent among likely Republican voters surveyed last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
The race for the Democratic nomination remains wide open, however,with a majority of the Democrats surveyed undecided on whether to support U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, of Tampa, or state Sen. Rod Smith, of Alachua. Of those who chose a candidate, Davis led 29 percent to 14 percent.
The primary election is Sept. 5.
The poll, which questioned 400 likely primary voters of each party Wednesday through Friday, showsCrist leading both Democrats by at least 16 points. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Crist nearly doubled his lead over Gallagher from the previous Mason-Dixon survey taken in March. Since then, Crist aired a series of upbeat television commercials while Gallagher endured stories about a troubled divorce, a second chance given to him by a judge and acknowledging smoking marijuana.
"It will take a major change in the political landscape to keep Crist from winning at this point," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said.
The Crist campaign declined to answer questions about the poll. Spokeswoman Erin Isaac issued a release saying the poll was encouraging, but "the one that matters will be taken in just 42 days."
Crist's name is recognized by 89 percent of those surveyed and is viewed favorably by 48 percent, according to the poll. Only 10 percent of those surveyed had a negative view of Crist. Gallagher has equal name recognition but is viewed negatively by 19 percent of the respondents.
Gallagher's campaign minimized the huge gap in this poll, saying it doesn't match what it sees on the campaign trail.
"If you go and you talk to Republican primary voters as we do every day, … people are still forming their opinions about the candidates," spokesman Albert Martinez said. "We're confident that once we have all the info that they'll choose Tom Gallagher overwhelmingly on Election Day."
It's a different challenge for both Democrats, who continue to struggle getting their names and messages to sink in among huge chunks of their party's faithful.
Both campaigns acknowledge that Davis' lead is attributable in large part to his relatively high profile in the Tampa Bay area, Florida's largest media market, compared with Smith's smaller base around Gainesville.
The good news for the Davis campaign is that he continues to lead Smith by double digits, spokesman Josh Earnest said. But Davis has been stagnant since March's Mason-Dixon survey while Smith's support increased, said Smith spokesman David Kochman.
"I think we've closed the gap," Kochman said. Support for Smith increased from 9 percent in the survey in March to 14 percent.
Neither Democrat has aired television commercials and may not be able to afford tofor at least another week. Smith was in the news often during the legislative session and is credited with blocking a series of Republican education initiatives.
But taking on Crist could be a huge challenge, Coker said. Crist has run statewide several times and is poised to emerge from his primary "relatively unscathed."
The fact that a year of campaigning has created little measurable momentum could be a concern for the eventual nominee, he said.
"If they can't get the party faithful fired up," Coker said, "I don't know how they're going to generate enthusiasm in the fall."
The good news is that FL will remain in Republican hands for at least a generation after Jeb Bush's excellent job.
I have 2 votes in my house for the primary, leaning to
CRIST, CONVINCE ME ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
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