There is a recent Zogby poll, which shows Angelides ahead with 44 to Arnold's 42, but within the margin of error.
http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2006/07/new_zogby_poll.html
Another encouraging sign is that Republicans are uniting in their support of Arnold. Now everyone just needs to get out and vote.
The numbers in this survey are even better for Aaaahnold when one subtracts the Field Poll's lefty fudge factor.
You can be sure the unions will be mobilizing dem voters.
Every single vote is crucial.
FO, no need to go to that website. All ya gotta do is read the article you posted in this thread:
Another poll released Monday found the candidates about even. The Zogby poll found 44 percent support for Angelides and 42 percent for Schwarzenegger, but it was within the poll's sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. That survey was conducted from July 11-19.Angelides' media consultant, Bill Carrick, noted that Schwarzenegger has spent more than 10 times as much on advertising as his rival since the June primary election - $15 million for Schwarzenegger compared with $1.4 million for Angelides.
Field is an awful poll, yet year after year the press continue to quote them, yet their early polls very seldom have any correlation to the outcome. As for "likely voters" those are self-screened likely voters, so it doesn't hold much weight.
If you want to dig further find out about their sampling. What percentage of the calls went to San Francisco County? vs. Placer County. Field sample based on the populations of counties, rather than the percentage of people statewide who are likely to vote from that county.
Good news for Kalif conservatives!
(/sarc)
I think that the more likely reason is that voters are uncomfortable with Phil Angelides for governor. Much like the choices California voters got in the special recall election, when you weigh the choices, Arnold is the least offensive candidate.
I would have expected Arnold to be doing better.