Posted on 07/25/2006 9:24:51 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger embarks from San Diego County on a campaign bus tour this morning, he will be greeted by good news in the form of a poll showing his re-election prospects brightening.
A new statewide Field Poll shows that 45 percent of the likely voters in the Nov. 7 election would vote for the Republican incumbent and 37 percent for Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Three percent would vote for minor-party candidates and the remaining 15 percent were undecided.
Although that does not represent a statistically significant change from May, when Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46 percent to 39 percent, other indicators are moving strongly in the governor's direction.
Favorable opinions about Schwarzenegger are back in the 50-percent range for the first time since early last year, and there has been a dramatic improvement in the way voters believe things are going in the state – always good news for an incumbent.
“The backdrop that the governor finds himself in is a much more favorable one now than right before the primary,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “The news coming out of Sacramento is largely positive, and so voters are giving the governor a little more credit.”
An unanticipated windfall of tax receipts this spring allowed Schwarzenegger to boost spending for popular programs, particularly education, and the Legislature reached bipartisan agreement on a rare on-time budget.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing, 49 percent, than disapprove, 41 percent.
In addition, voters have a more optimistic view of the direction of the state than at any time in nearly two years.
Nearly half of the voters, 47 percent, said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared with 41 percent who said it was on the wrong track. That represents a sharp turnaround since May, when 57 percent said they thought California was on the wrong track and 32 percent believed it was going in the right direction.
Angelides appears to have gained little traction since defeating state Controller Steve Westly in the June Democratic primary after a bruising campaign.
Schwarzenegger enjoys 85 percent support among Republicans, despite grumbling by conservatives about his return to a bipartisan approach. Only 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Angelides.
Angelides has the support of 63 percent of his party – with 16 percent of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nearly 20 percent haven't made up their minds.
“There's a relatively high proportion of undecideds among Democrats,” DiCamillo said. “The Republicans are already there for the governor, and I guess you could expect them to remain there for the rest of the campaign.”
The Angelides camp maintains there is plenty of time until the election and that President Bush's unpopularity will drag down Schwarzenegger.
“It's summer. It's a wide open race,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “A month ago, Schwarzenegger was at 44 percent. Schwarzenegger is still stuck in the mid 40s. And for an incumbent governor with 100 percent name ID and with Bush's troubles, this is the best year for the Democrats to defeat a one-term governor.”
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for the Schwarzenegger campaign, predicted a close race, but said Angelides had a lot of work to do.
“He hasn't even shored up the Democratic base yet,” Dowd said. “That's a difficult spot to be in. He's got to motivate and convince his own base before he gets to reach across to independents and Republicans.”
There is a profound divide between Schwarzenegger and Angelides supporters about the issues they most care most about. With undecided voters more in line with Angelides' supporters on issues, it is a dynamic that could work to the Democrat's advantage.
Among Schwarzenegger voters, 56 percent said illegal immigration was the most important issue, with 40 percent citing taxes and 30 percent citing jobs and the economy.
Among Angelides voters, 57 percent cite education as the most important issue, followed by health care at 50 percent, and environmental protection and jobs and the economy at 42 percent.
It could come down to whether the election is driven by issues or personalities, DiCamillo said.
“It's a Democratic state. The issues could be on his side,” DiCamillo said of Angelides.
“Schwarzenegger is dominating the news. That is going to be a big problem for Angelides. How is he going to get control of the campaign agenda when the governor seems to be setting it?”
The governor is conducting a two-day bus trip of Southern California that begins with a town hall-style meeting scheduled for 9:30 a.m. today at the Harry Griffen Park amphitheater in La Mesa.
When he begins to unite, rather than divide, I'll reconsider my opinion. Karaoke is pretending to sing a song. His lips are out of sync ...
Speaking of being "outted," it's better to be thought a fool, than to open up on your keyboard and remove all doubt in FReeperland!!!
You need to learn how to suffer in silence rather than to come on here takin cheap shots at people that know exactly how to git yer goat!!!
Sorry, but if Angelides wins, California loses big time.
You're projecting again. My goat is safe.
You're not exactly a uniter, youself, there Sonny! It's obvious you're not a Dale Carnigie graduate!!! Lay off the "Ilk" crappola!!! You're turning into a Johnny one note!!!
I'm thrilled to be voting for Tom, against Garamendi
and Arnold, against Angelides.
My pom-poms aren't tattered, Poppy.
You need new ayes.
"I still don't like Swartzenegger. "
===
But you like Angelides? Angelides will be governor, if Arnold gets defeated, because people like you won't get out and vote for him.
Funny, it only offends the ilk.
Not so! Carry_Okie found out where you tied it and is using it to remove weeds from his environmentally pristine environment in Santa Crux County!!! Ha Ha Ha!!! You lose!!!
"I trust his (Tom McC) integrity, but not his political judgment."
===
So I take this means that you won't be voting for Tom McClintock in November, preferring Angelides and Garamendi?
As a comic, you outta stay retired ...
Did you see
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1671920/posts?page=54#54
where CO is proclaiming that Angelides will be better "for the conservative cause" than Arnold?
Would any real conservative say that?
I think that he has adequately explained what he means by that statement on many occasions. Don't take it as support of Angelides.
Wull, at least I gots a sense a humor! That's more than you can say! (GRIN)
She just has NOT been able to help herself keep from it, so far!!! (giggle)(titter)
Any intelligent debate requires a definition of terms, something you'll never get from the media.
Along with the news? ;o)
You are a sensible person, who took note and wondered about who are the Republicans who will vote for Angelides?
You know and every sensible person knows that it's either Arnold or Angelides.
No matter how some dress it up, and what excuses they are using, when people want to see Arnold defeated, they want to see Angelides win.
THAT is the bottom line, everything else is fluff, not to mention misdirection.
You should read the article from where I posted an excerpt in my post 61. ( full article at the link). For the longest time I made the assumption that I am having a discussion with conservatives, until enough evidence surfaced in their posts, to make it obvious that the last thing they want is a conservative win. I refer you back to post 61. That article only refers to the more obvious Dem agents pretending to be conservatives, but there are plenty who are more subtle, but once you start looking at their posts from that angle, the pieces are falling into place.
THere shouldn't be 15% of Republicans NOT voting for Arnold ( as the article says about this poll) and there shouldn't be ANY Republicans voting for Angelides.
Perhaps you are right. I don't have much of a sense of humor, here. Btw, to attempt to assuage an insult by humor, or sumtin else pleasant, is called a meta-denial. It is an attempt to forestall argument, rebuttal and, ultimately, rejection.
Ooooo... Ooooo... Ooooo... Watchout editor-surveyor! F.O. wants to lay her treacherous CONspiracy theory on ya about alla the conservative "double agents" working within to git the poor little downtrodden Repellican Party and it's new Leftist Champion defeated by the Greek Geek so's they can "rise again" with a reserected conservative champion in 2010 so's they can then sit at that champion's right hand an rule everybuddy!!!(/drippin sourchasm)
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