Posted on 07/25/2006 9:24:51 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger embarks from San Diego County on a campaign bus tour this morning, he will be greeted by good news in the form of a poll showing his re-election prospects brightening.
A new statewide Field Poll shows that 45 percent of the likely voters in the Nov. 7 election would vote for the Republican incumbent and 37 percent for Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Three percent would vote for minor-party candidates and the remaining 15 percent were undecided.
Although that does not represent a statistically significant change from May, when Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46 percent to 39 percent, other indicators are moving strongly in the governor's direction.
Favorable opinions about Schwarzenegger are back in the 50-percent range for the first time since early last year, and there has been a dramatic improvement in the way voters believe things are going in the state – always good news for an incumbent.
“The backdrop that the governor finds himself in is a much more favorable one now than right before the primary,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “The news coming out of Sacramento is largely positive, and so voters are giving the governor a little more credit.”
An unanticipated windfall of tax receipts this spring allowed Schwarzenegger to boost spending for popular programs, particularly education, and the Legislature reached bipartisan agreement on a rare on-time budget.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing, 49 percent, than disapprove, 41 percent.
In addition, voters have a more optimistic view of the direction of the state than at any time in nearly two years.
Nearly half of the voters, 47 percent, said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared with 41 percent who said it was on the wrong track. That represents a sharp turnaround since May, when 57 percent said they thought California was on the wrong track and 32 percent believed it was going in the right direction.
Angelides appears to have gained little traction since defeating state Controller Steve Westly in the June Democratic primary after a bruising campaign.
Schwarzenegger enjoys 85 percent support among Republicans, despite grumbling by conservatives about his return to a bipartisan approach. Only 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Angelides.
Angelides has the support of 63 percent of his party – with 16 percent of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nearly 20 percent haven't made up their minds.
“There's a relatively high proportion of undecideds among Democrats,” DiCamillo said. “The Republicans are already there for the governor, and I guess you could expect them to remain there for the rest of the campaign.”
The Angelides camp maintains there is plenty of time until the election and that President Bush's unpopularity will drag down Schwarzenegger.
“It's summer. It's a wide open race,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “A month ago, Schwarzenegger was at 44 percent. Schwarzenegger is still stuck in the mid 40s. And for an incumbent governor with 100 percent name ID and with Bush's troubles, this is the best year for the Democrats to defeat a one-term governor.”
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for the Schwarzenegger campaign, predicted a close race, but said Angelides had a lot of work to do.
“He hasn't even shored up the Democratic base yet,” Dowd said. “That's a difficult spot to be in. He's got to motivate and convince his own base before he gets to reach across to independents and Republicans.”
There is a profound divide between Schwarzenegger and Angelides supporters about the issues they most care most about. With undecided voters more in line with Angelides' supporters on issues, it is a dynamic that could work to the Democrat's advantage.
Among Schwarzenegger voters, 56 percent said illegal immigration was the most important issue, with 40 percent citing taxes and 30 percent citing jobs and the economy.
Among Angelides voters, 57 percent cite education as the most important issue, followed by health care at 50 percent, and environmental protection and jobs and the economy at 42 percent.
It could come down to whether the election is driven by issues or personalities, DiCamillo said.
“It's a Democratic state. The issues could be on his side,” DiCamillo said of Angelides.
“Schwarzenegger is dominating the news. That is going to be a big problem for Angelides. How is he going to get control of the campaign agenda when the governor seems to be setting it?”
The governor is conducting a two-day bus trip of Southern California that begins with a town hall-style meeting scheduled for 9:30 a.m. today at the Harry Griffen Park amphitheater in La Mesa.
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Let me make sure your position is that you consider Angelides better for conservatives than Arnold.
You sound like this kind of "conservative"
But there seems to be a new “Republicans vote on Wednesday” taking form in time for the 2006 election. This effort targets grassroots conservatives known for their passionate views about issues who may be open to a grassroots voting rebellion. But the effort is being led, or at the very least aided, by liberals pretending to be grassroots conservatives, as opposed to actual grassroots conservatives themselves.
The premise follows a scheme previously found most often on talk radio programs: a liberal activist calls a conservative radio host, such as Rush Limbaugh or Laura Ingraham, and delivers the line: “I’ve been voting Republican for 30 years, but I’ve finally had it and I’m not voting this year.” Or my favorite: “I’m a Reagan Republican, but I’m fed up and voting for John Kerry.” (Because that is what Reagan Republicans would do, vote for John Kerry.) At this point, the host usually asks a couple of questions and it becomes painfully obvious that the supposed Reagan Republican has probably never voted for anyone left of Michael Dukakis.
The intentions are clear: the caller hopes to make it appear as though there is already a large uprising of conservatives who are rebelling against GOP candidates, and thus, wishes to incite other Republicans to pick up the same attitude and pass it along, leading to the Democrat becoming more competitive. The successes of such a strategy on voting habits are unclear, especially given that the conservative radio host often refutes the caller’s talking points.
But the pretend-conservative act is being carried onto a whole new playing field, one that has become wildly influential over the past few years and one that does not stand to be instantly recognized as a fake. That playing field is the blogosphere, which is then used in conjunction with massive e-mailings to “spread the word” (as one e-mailer insisted I do to my readers/e-mail list) to other conservatives.
The concept is the same: the blog or e-mail claims, first, that the said writer has been a conservative for years and that they have “had it with Republicans.” They then point to an issue that conservatives would likely be upset about such as excessive spending, immigration, or the expansion of government. Their supposed rage over the issue has convinced them to either not show up to vote in 2006, or, in order to really show Republicans, vote for the Democrat instead.
Excellent post #47
Yeah! That's the ticket!! Git that picture of Schwartzie takin a big toke on a joint with his eyes all glassy as their campaign poster!!!
That's the kind of "joint ticket" we oughta be seein!!!
Nice that you can read my mind. If what you mean is that I won't vote for Arnold, that is correct. Although I have decided what I won't do, I haven't decided what I will do.
Not for those who trust Tom.
I trust his integrity, but not his political judgment.
I see you have still failed to make your case FOR Arnold. There is an obvious reason: you know how weak that case really is.
You sir, are completely and exactly CORRECT!!!
I know all I need to know about both of them.
So? I still don't like Swartzenegger.
Tom can vote for him if he wants. I'm not.
Meaning you haven't deciced to vote for the demoncrap or some other punative vote? I don't believe you, Karaoke, I think you'll prove your campaigning for demoncraps by casting your vote for them as well. You're at the forefront of the ilk herd.
Certainly nothing being served up by Arnold can pass for 'conservative governance,' so I suspect that his bright prospects for reelection stem from the sheer dread of the thought of Pill Angelides as governor. That hateful little gargoyle has become concentrated Rino-power.
That was back when Arnold was worried...
What kind of republican would voe for a man who promised to raise taxes?
No, you want to sully anyone who will, including Tom McClintock.
Although I have decided what I won't do, I haven't decided what I will do.
Yes, you have. You will allow an Angelides win.
Bad news for Philth!
You know... your pom poms are gittin a little tattered...
Have you contributed to any candidates in this election?
Do you support Tom?
That is absolutely none of your beeswax!!! It's a secret ballot in case you "New Majority" Party muddled moderate cheerleaders with your frazzled pom-poms can't remember that far back!!!
Philth - Excellent, I like that!
Yeah, yeah, sure. Or is it that everytime one of you ilk come out and admit you're going to vote for the demonrat you become fully outted.
I don't always agree completely with what cary_okie says, but I know for sure that the above statement is way out of line. He spends more time researching facts than 90% of California freepers put together, and is not known for rash symbolic acts.
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