Posted on 07/21/2006 9:38:25 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
WASHINGTON - If Israel launches a massive offensive into southern Lebanon against Hezbollah guerrillas, Lebanon's small army, if it decides to fight, will be overpowered, analysts say.
While Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr has virtually ruled out joining forces with the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, he has stated that his army would resist an Israeli invasion and defend Lebanese soil.
"The Lebanese armed forces would get routed, and there's no chance that the Lebanese army would take control of southern Lebanon," said Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "They're too weak. That's why they've never taken on Hezbollah. They've never had the firepower to take on Hezbollah."
Formed at the end of World War II, the Lebanese army split along sectarian lines at the outset of the country's civil war in 1975 and was only reunited in 1990 from the various factions that had previously fought one another.
According to "Middle East Military Balance," an annual publication from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, Israel, the Lebanese army has about 60,000 men. The country also has a small air force and an even smaller navy.
The army is split along five regional commands, with 11 mechanized infantry brigades, plus artillery, special forces, commando, logistics and medical units. It has about 350 tanks and 1,100 armored personnel carriers, most dating from Soviet-era and the Vietnam war. Its artillery consists of around 175 towed guns and howitzers ranging from 105 mm to 155 mm.
Those weapons would prove no match against modern Israeli tanks, artillery and other weapons, many of which are supplied by the United States and all of which are virtually state of the art.
(Excerpt) Read more at mercurynews.com ...
As a US taxpayer I kinda like the credit where credit is due...
In a conventional war it would simply be a massacre to mass Lebanese troops against Isreali armor with no air cover. It should be clear that the Hezzies will simply try to kill as many Isreali soldiers while avoiding straight up fighting. I don't see a scenario where the Isrealis can draw out enough of the Hezzies to make a difference. Once the Hezzies are unable to damage the Isreali army, I believe they will simply melt away until a later time.
Not me. I'd be planning my vacation..
We need an expert to tell us that? Israel has had free reign over their airspace for a week!
The Lebanese army cannot be so stupid as to get involved in this conflict. They should just sit back, sit tight, and wait for Israel to clear out the Hezbullah. Israel will take losses for the sake of Lebanon. When Israel is done, the Lebanese Army will be available to fill the power vacuum left in the wake of Hezbullah, and Lebanon will be free of foreign interference for once in its wretched little life. That would be a very good step, because I believe they want no more war, and no more extremism, and want to modernize thier country and improve relations with the rest of the world. They can't do that until Hezbullah and Syria are out of their hair.
If they get involved in the war, they are incredibly stupid.
LOL. Never seen that one before, but quite appropriate.
Nope, they will (or at least they should) sit it out. They will win by default if they do, and get the chance to actually be a country for once.
More news from the "no sh!t, sherlock" desk at the AP.
Sounds reasonable but it is wrong. This war and its planning had been going on for years before then. It is all controlled out of Iran with Syria as the trusty sidekick. The ultimate string pullers are the Russians and Chinese.
Because those two, Russia and China have known for a long time that an all out conventional or nuclear war with the US is a sure loser they have adopted other tactics. Using surrogates like Korea, Vietnam, and now the Islamists, is their current attempt to conquer us and the world.
Any who face us or the Israelis will not do it conventionally. They will fade into the population and hide behind women and children. Our enemy within, the Democrats and MSM, will handicap us and help them all they can with propaganda.
The christian president of lebanon must be the stupidest, wimpiest leader in the world. He allowed 100s of truckloads and planeloads of weapons to be brought into the country for Hezb and was too afraid to say anything. He has to go.
The officer corps is still Marionite
After a few Lebanese garrisons are vaporised the rest are going to bail.
bttt
They're also the Lebanese government.
He's merely a figurehead. Seriously, Hezbollah is really in charge of Lebanon.
The U.N. Ambassador from Israel, who spoke eloquently in front of the Security Council last week was right. Israel, by taking out Hezbollah, would be doing both Israel, Lebanon, and the entire Middle East a big favor.
Israel is not only in a fight for survival but now engaged in the WOT.
In other words, they begged for the land back, then they turned the other way when it turned into a Hezbollah military zone. Screw them!!
Their version of token resistance would be to instruct their soldiers to fight valiantly while they prepare to rush to headquarters for further instructions -- incidentally taking with them a nice change of civilian clothes, a passport, and all the money they can beg, borrow or steal.
We have a large and powerful Lebanese population in the Central Illinois area...can you say Ray LaHood? They are feeling very conflicted to say the least. My opinion is..for a TRUE free and democratic Lebanon....let the Hezzies guts grease the treads of Israels tanks. May the spirit of General Patton strengthen those that fight for freedom and America.
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