Onward (This time the Israelis are going to finish the job) David Warren.

Real Clear Politics ^ | July 20, 2006 | David Warren

[fanfan]

Traditionally, at this point in her response to terror attacks, the world diplomatic community persuades Israel to agree a ceasefire, and the terrorists are saved to fight another day. This is what happened in 1982. The Israelis were in a position to annihilate Yasser Arafat's PLO, whom they had surrounded in Beirut. Instead, they agreed to let them escape to Tunisia. The rest is history: recurring again and again.

Kofi Annan is trying to do the same thing over: to save Hezbollah (this time) with a ceasefire, by promising Israel that a large force of international "peacekeepers" will take their place. But a U.N. force is no likelier to disarm Hezbollah than the Lebanese army was (when Lebanon agreed to disarm Hezbollah, most recently in 2004). After a brief lull in the shooting, and a chance to regroup and rebuild, Hezbollah would be back at Israel's throat.

The Israelis know this, now, from hard experience. There is overwhelming popular support for the course Prime Minister Olmert has set out. The Israelis will not be taking advice, from such as Russia and France. The Americans, even the State Department under Condoleezza Rice, show signs of having seriously absorbed their own lessons from recent history. John Bolton is sitting squarely in the Security Council, prepared to veto every effort to force the Israelis to desist. This time -- with or without the world's permission -- the Israelis are going to finish the job.

This is evident from events in Lebanon, through the last week. The Israeli air force has been doing classic battlefield prep, along the lines of the allied Operation Hail Mary against the Iraqis occupying Kuwait in 1991. You will recall Gen. Colin Powell's memorable phrase: "First we're going to cut them off, then we're going to kill them." The Israeli air strikes on Lebanese airports, harbours, roads and bridges is the "cut them off" part. The "kill them" part is coming.

There have been four call-ups of Israeli reserves. This is never done for show in Israel. Reserves are systematically replacing regulars in West Bank positions; regulars from there and elsewhere are assembling for the trudge north.

It will not be a walkover, as the Israelis know. They will take plenty of casualties. Hezbollah have had years to dig in deep, and the Iranians and Syrians have been very generous in arming and training them. The Israeli command is aware of at least 600 underground missile caches, each one of which will be well-defended. Nearly 200 of those contain missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv.

The air strikes have only been able to hit launching pads at surface level. The array of Hezbollah anti-tank defences just inside Lebanon's southern border is formidable. The Israelis won't be crossing it for small stakes. Some time in the next few days, the serious fighting will begin.

That none of Hezbollah's longest-range missiles have been used yet (despite Hezbollah boasts and threats), is an indication that Iranian permission is not forthcoming. For the use of such powerful Iranian ordnance against Israeli population centres, even if shot from Lebanese territory, would bring Israeli retaliation against Iran itself. And it is fairly clear from the diplomatic gestures they have been making, and the purely defensive postures the Syrian military has been assuming, that both countries want out of the line of fire.

My sense is that the ayatollahs are already resigning themselves to the loss of Hezbollah, and don't wish to lose Syria, too. The Israeli air force alone is capable of triggering a regime change in Damascus, by decapitating Syria's Alawite leadership. Moreover, an Iran that itself attacks Israel is -- I should think in the certain knowledge of its leaders -- an Iran that will be attacked by the United States.

And so, to the long-term (though obviously not the short-term) benefit of Lebanon, the war will be confined to Lebanon (and Gaza). The long-term benefit is that Hezbollah prevents the emergence of a Lebanon free of Syrian interference, and therefore of Israeli threats. Even some of the Shia realize that Lebanon would be better off, without a private militia much larger than the country's armed forces. Lebanon has a prosperous future in alliance with Israel and the United States. It has no other prosperous future. The idea appears to be seeping into the Lebanese ruling classes. Even the once radical Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, seems to get this.

For Israel, there is no turning back. It is a categorical imperative: for if the Israeli military isn't facing Hezbollah and Hamas, then Israel's civilians have to face them.

In a strange way, perhaps a way he anticipated, Ariel Sharon's bold decision to remove the Jewish settlements from Gaza, and turn the territory over to Palestinian self-government, clinched the issue. If the subsequent rocket attacks from Gaza, then Lebanon, could be predicted by me, they would have been predicted by him.

[HiTech RedNeck]

In a strange way, perhaps a way he anticipated, Ariel Sharon's bold decision to remove the Jewish settlements from Gaza, and turn the territory over to Palestinian self-government, clinched the issue. If the subsequent rocket attacks from Gaza, then Lebanon, could be predicted by me, they would have been predicted by him.

yup he wanted a country that can actually be warred against. the mooselimbs are sooooo stupid.

[flynmudd]

I'm ready, but is this country ready? Of course I'm biased, I watched in horror as we were attacked on 9/11. Where is the resolve this country showed on 9/12? Same set of circumstances in my opinion.

[csvset]

Dealing with the terrorists is like dealing with cockroaches.

Killing a few of them and negotiating with the rest won't work.

Kill all of them.

[Tolik]

David Warren:

Traditionally, at this point in her response to terror attacks, the world diplomatic community persuades Israel to agree a ceasefire, and the terrorists are saved to fight another day. This is what happened in 1982. The Israelis were in a position to annihilate Yasser Arafat's PLO, whom they had surrounded in Beirut. Instead, they agreed to let them escape to Tunisia. The rest is history: recurring again and again.

Kofi Annan is trying to do the same thing over: to save Hezbollah (this time) with a ceasefire...

... For Israel, there is no turning back. It is a categorical imperative: for if the Israeli military isn't facing Hezbollah and Hamas, then Israel's civilians have to face them ...

Nailed It!
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[Chuck54]

I'm ready, but is this country ready?

What the hell? Are you in Israel? The U.S. will not, repeat, will not tell Israel what, when, how, NO, or anything else.

This is Israel's one last chance to rid that area of vermin and they intend to do so.

Just MHO of course.

[goldstategop]

Israel will have to go and clean them out. Its going to be messy, bloody and ugly. But if it isn't done, Hezbollah will be forever at Israel's throat and that is not a situation Israelis are prepared to tolerate. They have a well equipped, well trained army. Now they need to show Hezbollah and the Arabs the Jews are not on the run and will do whatever it takes to defend their homeland from aggression.

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em, Down Hezbullies.)
,

[flynmudd]

Sorry, but I was referring to the US. Because whether or not anybody will say it out loud, we are involved in this fight. Bush is not calling Olmert on purpose.

[stopem]

The terroists have tentacles that are far reaching and they need to be cut off at the core and than all the rest of the tentacles, Iran and Syria are providing the money that supports them.

[Chuck54]

All I was really trying to say, and not very well I might add, is that our President Bush will not take a poll to see how the sheeple of this country feel about Israel's response.

If a Democrat were in the WH the pollsters would be burning up the phone lines trying to find out what to do.

Bless GWB and Bless this country. Praying for Israel and their success in this trying time.

[kittymyrib]

Rescuing Arafat and his vermin from destruction by the Israelis was one of Pres. Reagan's biggest mistakes. He concentrated on defeating Communism, and probably considered this bunch of crazy Muslim ragheads not much of a threat to the world. He was right in dealing with Communism, but sadly underestimated the threat of Islam to the West. Had Arafat and Co. been killed, Hezbollah would not have come into being to terrorize the free world.

[flynmudd]

You have to admire the man for that.

[MattinNJ]

Great article BTTT

[uncbob]

So true and the other mistake Reagan made was in not reversing Nixon's disasterous policy of allowing China access to the USA

[foreshadowed at waco]

I agree that Sharon understood that only a country can be held accountable for its behavior...the 2004 resolution demanding that Lebanon disarm the terrorist militia has been used effectively by Bolton and the Israelis to ram it down the UN's throat...if they won't clean up the crap in their own countries we will step in and do it for them...and the Sunni Arab street is being pretty quiet...they don't want a Shiite monolith in the ME run by the Persians/ Iranians, the only non Arab country besides Israel in the neighborhood...a nuclear Iran threatens them more than it threatens the USA IMHO.

Prayers for the good guys.

[HiTech RedNeck]

The only thing stopping the Hez from seeing peace is their own pride. They give back the captured soldiers and stop shooting the rockets into Israel, and the crickets will chirp again.

[Ragtop]

It also sounds like the best thing President Bush did was put Bolton in the UN. Aside from removing our membership from that crummy organization and kicking them out of our country, that was the enxt best thing to do. Bolton ROCKS! Bolton/Rumsfeld in 08!

[Starboard]

The terroists have tentacles that are far reaching and they need to be cut off at the core

Exactly. Failing to totally eradicate this menace at the core will only embolden them and make things even worse. Islamic terrorists are getting access to ever more sophisticated weapons that will pose a far greater threat in the future. They must be eliminated now. If not now, then when?

[Ragtop]

I agree. This all WoT stuff. If we can't openly help Israel, we need to find some way to fund and arm them even more than we have in the past.

[Starboard]

The radical mullas are becoming more emboldened. You can sense that. We cannot let them gain any momentum. That would be catastropic. IMO we have a historical window of opportunity to join with Israel and crush this menace. Again, if not now then when? It will only be more difficult for us in the future.