30-Year Weather Forecast By Japan

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 7-20-2006 | Colin Joyce

[blam]

30-year weather forecast by Japan

By Colin Joyce in Tokyo

(Filed: 20/07/2006)

Japan's science ministry hopes to harness the power of a supercomputer called the Earth Simulator to deliver forecasts 30 years into the future.

The computer, which occupies a warehouse in Yokohama, is one of the most powerful in the world. Scientists will use it to analyse long-term trends using data such as atmospheric pressure, global air and sea temperatures, crust movements and currents.

The forecasts will tell which areas are likely to experience recurring disasters such as typhoons, storms, heavy snow, coastal erosion and droughts. The government may be able to divert money and resources into those areas in advance, either to take counteractive prevention measures or to ensure rapid response.

Farmers may also be able to plan crop planting based on the changing environment.

Japan's vulnerability to the weather was underlined yesterday as 21 people in central and western Japan were reported missing or killed by torrential rains that swept away houses and destroyed roads. Flooding and mudslides are common in the summer months, as typhoons bring intense rain.

The Earth Simulator was launched in 2002 but until now it has been used to predict weather in the short-term. Until 2004, when surpassed by IBM's Blue Gene, it was the world's fastest computer, able to undertake 35 trillion calculations per second.

The ministry is intending to launch the new project by spring next year, investing in the region of £10 to £15 million a year.

Now the ministry is working on refining the simulation models, which are crucial to accurate projection.

The project is expected to cover the whole planet, producing forecasts for areas of the globe as small as two square miles.

[gusopol3]

a 200% improvement on current mehods? That is progress!

[greasepaint]

this is crap.

climate models cannot even explain current-past climate,
unless you feed it that info.

something that cannot explain the past, should not
be trusted to predict the future

[wizr]

Heads 'r tails?

[photodawg]

Hasn't Al Gore already done this?
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

No, Al believes the earth will have irreversible climate change through global warming in 10 years. After that there is nothing man can do to prevent total destruction of the planet. Obviously, we don't need a thirty year forecast, using Al's timetable that's twenty more years than we need.

[thegreatbeast]

They won't overcome the GIGO effect.