Tropical Storm Beryl

Yeah, looks like a little rain for us here in Norfolk. And rough seas so no fishing/boating Saturday.

41 posted on 07/18/2006 11:16:19 AM PDT by fredhead (Women want me....Fish fear me....Oh well, one out of two ain't bad.)

To: varina davis

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 18, 2006

...Tropical depression getting better organized off the North
Carolina coast...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the eastern coast of North
Carolina from north of Cape Lookout northward to south of Currituck
Beach Light.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 32.8 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 210
miles...340 km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected to occur later
tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently
investigating the depression will provide a better assessment of
its location and strength later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...32.8 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

42 posted on 07/18/2006 11:38:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Hurricane season 2006 - Be prepared and have a plan)

Nauti, I'm betting it will be Tropical Storm Beryl by the 5:30 p.m. TWO advisory.

43 posted on 07/18/2006 12:21:18 PM PDT by varina davis

To: varina davis

44 posted on 07/18/2006 12:22:13 PM PDT by varina davis

45 posted on 07/18/2006 12:24:35 PM PDT by 1rudeboy

To: varina davis; NautiNurse

It looks to be shy of TS status still.

---

281
URNT12 KNHC 181945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/19:15:40Z
B. 33 deg 08 min N
073 deg 17 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 180 deg 008 nm
F. 070 deg 032 kt
G. 340 deg 013 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 22 C/ 200 m
J. 23 C/ 199 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.05 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:08:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

46 posted on 07/18/2006 1:05:46 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

thanks for the ping!

47 posted on 07/18/2006 1:13:09 PM PDT by RDTF ("We love death. The US loves life. That is the big difference between us two.” Osama Bin laden)

Second tropical depression of the season

The SECOND???

Didn't the experts say something like 42 depressions, 12-16 hurricanes and four CAT 4 or 5's????

What's going on---global COOLING?????

48 posted on 07/18/2006 1:23:40 PM PDT by cookcounty (Army Vet, Army Dad)

They found a 39 Kt FL wind just NE of center...looks like we may have Beryl.

49 posted on 07/18/2006 1:42:14 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt

Check that...just found a 47 kt FL wind....definitely have Beryl now.

50 posted on 07/18/2006 1:46:05 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt

To: ContemptofCourt

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 18, 2006

...Tropical depression very near tropical storm strength...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the eastern coast of North
Carolina from north of Cape Lookout northward to south of Currituck
Beach Light.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 33.3 north...longitude 73.3 west or about 180
miles...290 km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest is expected to occur later tonight or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...33.3 N...73.3 W. Movement
toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

51 posted on 07/18/2006 1:49:26 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

To: ContemptofCourt; NautiNurse

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 18, 2006

reconnaissance data and satellite imagery indicate the depression has continued to become better organized. Recent data from the aircraft that came in after some of the forecast products were issued indicate 1000 ft flight-level winds of 46 kt in the southeastern quadrant and a pressure of 1007 mb. This corresponds to at least 35 kt surface winds...and a tropical cyclone update... or tcu product... will issued shortly indicating that the cyclone is now Tropical Storm Beryl.

The initial motion estimate is 360/05. The global models at 12z again did not initialize the cyclone very well and...as a result ...gradually shear out a very weak system northward through 36-48 hours...and then turn gradually turn it northeastward. Until the models show that they have a better handle on the initial state of this system...I am leaning more toward the ECMWF...GFDL...and the BAM models on the cyclone making a slight S-Bend in the forecast track through 48-72 hours. This scenario is supported by all the models which indicate a shortwave trough currently over the Great Lakes digging east-southeastward and eroding the eastern portion of the subtropical ridge along the mid-Atlantic states. The models also agree that the subtropical ridge to the east of the cyclone will build westward slightly...which appears to be ongoing right now based on trends noted in water vapor imagery. The combination of mid-level height falls to the west and height rises to the east should is expected to nudge the cyclone on a north-northwestward track through 48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track...but was shifted slightly to the east.

Upper-level outflow continues to improve and become more symmetrical. The SHIPS model indicates the vertical shear is forecast to be only 1 kt in 24 hours...which would favor significant strengthening in most cases. Although SSTs appear to be warmer than what the SHIPS model is using...dry air entrainment in the western semicircle may modulate the normal intensification trend for a system like this. The SHIPS model now brings the cyclone up to 50 kt in 36 hours...and the official intensity forecast remains slightly higher. Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/2100z 33.3n 73.3w 30 kt
12hr VT 19/0600z 33.7n 73.7w 40 kt
24hr VT 19/1800z 34.4n 74.2w 45 kt
36hr VT 20/0600z 35.2n 74.6w 50 kt
48hr VT 20/1800z 36.0n 74.6w 55 kt
72hr VT 21/1800z 37.4n 73.4w 55 kt
96hr VT 22/1800z 39.5n 68.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 23/1800z 42.5n 60.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical

52 posted on 07/18/2006 1:57:43 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

They just issued the 5PM Adv too soon...LOL.

53 posted on 07/18/2006 1:58:46 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt

To: nwctwx; NautiNurse

We have Tropical Storm Beryl! Can someone please change the title of this thread? Thanks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

54 posted on 07/18/2006 2:00:53 PM PDT by varina davis

To: varina davis

Admin mods were on it fast. ;-)

55 posted on 07/18/2006 2:02:57 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

To: Howlin; Dog Gone

56 posted on 07/18/2006 2:03:52 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

Sure were -- within a heartbeat!

57 posted on 07/18/2006 2:06:07 PM PDT by varina davis

To: varina davis

Tropical Storm Beryl tropical cyclone update
455 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2006

...Reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that Tropical Depression
Two has reached tropical storm status...

shortly before 445 PM CDT...reconnaissance aircraft indicated
flight-level winds of 46-47 kt in the southeastern quadrant...along
with a central pressure of 1007 mb...or 29.74 inches. Maximum
sustained winds in cycloen are now estimated to be at least 40 mph
in the eastern semicircle...and the system is being designated
Tropical Storm Beryl. This new storm status will be reflected in
National Hurricane Center graphics products and also in the next
intermediate public advisory issued at 8 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

58 posted on 07/18/2006 2:06:12 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)

Might be good if the mods could add "Carolinas at risk" after the title?

59 posted on 07/18/2006 2:07:19 PM PDT by varina davis

60 posted on 07/18/2006 2:10:09 PM PDT by blam

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794