Posted on 07/17/2006 4:39:57 PM PDT by dangus
New Jersey:
A Rasmussen poll showing Democrat Menendez running away with the race past Republican Kean has been repudiated, or Kean is making a tremendous comeback. Polls now show Kean has pulled even, the latest showing Kean leading by two points. Kean’s fundraising is coming on strongly, and he should have the financing to run a strong campaign, although he still trails significantly. Call this a tossup
Maryland:
Cardin’s lead over Republican Steele is shrinking, down to only six points. But the news is worse for the Democrats: Cardin no longer leads the absolutely broke Mfume, and Steele draws a tie against Mfume. Meanwhile Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich is rallying. I believe that the Democrat pogrom against anti-alien Democrat Controller Schaeffer will further hurt the Democrats ability to assert that they are moderates. Steele’s race is at least a tossup for the Republicans to gain.
Montana:
Republican incumbent Burns is in a virtual tie with Democratic lefty Tester. Burns is rolling, however, while Tester went flat broke. Tester had a successful fundraiser, since the poll, but had to go out-of-state to the likes of Hillary Clinton. This race is starting to lean Republican.
Ohio:
Republican DeWine has pulled ahead in the polls, and continues to have roughly a modest but significant 2-1 cash advantage over Brown. This race seems to be tipping Republican
Missouri:
Republican Jim Talent has caught back up with Claire McCaskill. A poll by a special interest group favoring harvesting preborn babies for medical supplies shows pro-abortion McCaskill up by a couple points, but Zogby, for instance, shows Talent up by 7. Naturally, the national news media is making a stir over McCaskill’s alleged lead, supposedly on the basis of her support of baby-harvesting. Talent is now blowing wide open his fundraising lead, gaping to 3:1. This race is leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania:
The election between Santorum and Casey will be much closer than some of the polls coming out of Pennsylvania, but his failure to catch back up to Casey is looking problematic. The good news is that you’d never know Santorum was in such trouble if you looked at his fundraising, so Santorum has the resources to get his message out. The question is whether he can formulate such a message this late in the game. This race is leaning Democrat.
Rhode Island:
Consistently Democrat-voting and Bush-hater Lincoln Chafee, supposed Republican senator (ACU rating: 20%) is in a virtual tie against primary challenger Laffey and Democrat Whitehouse, and has fallen behind in the fundraising race, while Laffey, also behind, is still competitive in funds. Can Chafee emerge from the bruising primary able to defeat Whitehouse? Who cares.
Washington:
All three polls I’ve found show Democratic incumbent Cantwell leading McGavick by only 4 points, a vast improvement. Suddenly, this race is a tossup.
Connecticut:
Suddenly, the Democrats look like they could lose this very blue seat because they can’t help whipping incumbent Lieberman as a scapegoat for their hatred of Bush. Lieberman, who once ran as a pro-life moderate, before becoming safely liberal, may run as an independent. Could an as-yet unseen Republican defeat a divided Democratic party? Would an independent Lieberman abandon his Washington-imposed liberalism? This race is too wild to even say it is a tossup, so I’ll just allow the default assumption that an unmeasured race favors the incumbent. Leans Democrat.
Minnesota:
Most polls show Republican Kennedy and Democrat Klobuchar virtually tying in the race of retiring Democrat Dayton’s seat, with Klobuchar having slight polling and fundraising leads. One poll shows her clobbering Kennedy, but the poll looks insane. Tossup.
SUMMATION:
10 hotly contested contests, including 5 Republican and 6 Democrat seats.
5 tossups, 2 lean Democrat, 3 lean Republican.
Most likely result: Democrats gain 1 Senate seat. If Democratic gains include Rhode Island, this is no loss for the GOP. Range: Republicans get 52-58 seats.
Races which could flare up into a contest:
I’m presuming TENNESSEE is safely Republican. As often happens in the South, ignoring demographics, the race looks close. But merely moderately fanatically liberal Ford has wrapped up the black, but shows no signs of appealing to swing-voting whites.
Can the Republicans find a way of throwing Harris overboard in FLORIDA, and put this race in play as much as it deserves to be?
WISCONSIN Democrat Senator Herb Kohl’s ratings are huge but soft, and are not reflecting any Republican challenge. Will they change as a candidate emerges?
Democrats seem to think that somehow Adm. Webb can defeat VIRGINIA Republican Sen. Allen, based on Webb getting support in the high 30s. Forget it. That’s as high as Webb will get, and his near nonexistent fundraising reflects that fact. But thanks… the attention will make Allen look good for a competition against liberals like Manchurian McCain or leftist-but-patriotic Giuliani (in the unlikely event either actually runs).
WEST VIRGINIAn Senator Robert Byrd is really, really old.
The LIBS will use FAKE POLLS with FAKE NEWS to try to convince LIBS and stupid Republicans that the GOP is doomed.
Also: Bush's improvement in the Rasmussen poll seems to be sticking, not just statistical noise. He's holding steady around 44%
Good news!
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Thanks,
LOLOLOLOL
May God's judgment fall upon both of them.
Talent wins by 5..
Sorry... I read down the list really fast. Although I should know better, I think I just thought ACTIVISM: GET THE VOTE OUT.
Dude, write Wisconsin off. Kohl is up against a no-name, pyscho (yes, the guy is literally nuts) "Republican" lawyer from a small town. Kohl will win easily, he's not even campaigning.
Good analysis. And I mostly agree. It is a joke to believe Menedez who is a Corzine boy would be ahead of Kean. Kean is tremendously popular and even in a blue state like New Jersey, people have to have had it with the antics of the Democrats there, especially on corruption and tax hiking. If Kean doesn't win this race, let North Korea annex New Jersey. They're as hopelessly Marxist as Kim Jong Il's hermit kingdom.
I also see the GOP either holding even on Senate seats or losing one. That's about the best the Dems. can hope for this year.
Pipe dream. This is the state that voted in the Democrat ringer Loser Lautenberg when they couldn't find another reputable candidate.
Mass? Democrat candidate keeps a Senate seat, runs for President.
..............
How many more examples you want before I'll believe therepubbies actually mean something?
The demo's cheated some 12 seats away in 12 contests
Nice job..BTW..you missed Stabenow in Michigan..she's gonna lose..
>> Kohl is up against a no-name, pyscho (yes, the guy is literally nuts) "Republican" lawyer from a small town. <<
Read my original post:
"WISCONSIN Democrat Senator Herb Kohl’s ratings are huge but soft... Will they change as a candidate emerges?"
Such a candidate has not yet emerged. But, for instance, Tommy Thompson would defeat Kohl. Yes, I know it looks like there isn't much chance left to convince Thompson to run. But the filing deadline hasn't quite yet passed.
Oh, I did forget to include Michigan in the list of states which could develop into contests. It's not tight yet, but Stabenow is certainly weak. Go Keith Butler!
Thank you. This inspirational message has been brought to you by the Church of CrawDaddyCA and latter-day 'possums.
(/sarc)
Cantwell only up by 4 points! over McGavick
Yeah... But last time NJ elected a Democratic governor, who ran against taxes, then decided to raise taxes once governor, Christie Todd Whitman -- who was an unknown -- almost beat Bill Bradley, who was one of the top Democrats.
This time around, Kean has name recognition and Menendez is no Bill Bradley.
What on earth are you talking about in Kansas, losing Dole's seat? Dole gave his seat to Republican Shiela Framm and she was replaced by more-conservative Republican Sam Brownback.
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