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Posted on 07/14/2006 6:08:50 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
Israeli gunners cover their ears as an artillery piece fires into southern Lebanon from a position on the border near Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel, Friday, July 14, 2006.
Jul. 15, 2006 6:09 | Updated Jul. 15, 2006 6:10
Syria will assist Lebanon and Hizbollah
By JPOST.COM STAFF
The ruling Syrian Baath-party stated early Saturday that it was prepared to give all available support to the "heroes of the resistance" in order to assist Hizbullah and Lebanon against the "barbaric attacks" of the IDF
Sadly, I agree. It's illogical.
Should it go without saying that this is a much bigger escalation than the last war? Seems Syria and of course, Iran are being a lot more aggressive with their words plus more up to date weapons. Do these countries actually think the US cannot multi-task? Questions Questions
Strap that chemical suit on him now!
here's to hopin' it was just a rumor
I was hoping to do this later, but the maps are lower priority and you asked, so here goes:
Background:
Syria is way overmatched in the Golan, unless large number of IDF can be drawn off elsewhere.
Iran has to go big, threaten to go big and then settle for a political solution, or else fold and forget dreams of nukes and super power status.
All western governments have to balance between what's right and the sensitivities of Arab allies, vital to the war on terror.
Our ME allies have to balance their statements between two opposing forces, local opinion, and strategic necessity. SA, Jordan, and Kuwait have no wish to salute Tehran.
Russia and France do not want to lose revenues from Iranian purchases, or sweetheart oil deals related to same.
We have 105,000 US troops in Iraq, unknown quantities of armor and air, troops are in "peacekeeping mode". Brits have 20k at Basra, another 6 to 8k Coalition spread all around mainly central southern areas.
At minimum, a modern two brigade ready force in Kuwait City.
Coalition naval stregth in the Gulf is unknown.
Saudi's have 8 or 9 battalions of M1/M3 modern armor and an advanced air force, but they are not comfortable with manual labor and combat requires same, as does realistic training.
Syria has about 4500 MBT's, antiquated or obsolete, Iran like 2500, both have obsolete air forces. Iran has a large quantity of obsolescent Silkworn era cruise missiles, range ~70 miles, speed in the low hundreds, plus a limited number of IRBM's and additional older Scud type SSMs. Iranian navy is weak, but mine layers can operate from civilian vessels.
Iran and Syria signed a mutual defense pact within the last quarter.
First branch in the flowchart/tree:
Is Hamas/Hezb off the leash, acting on their own, or is this all part of a larger plan involving Iran and Syria, possibly NK?
If the terrorists are acting alone, Israel will sit on Gaza and S. Lebanon until they tire of it, there is no force in the region to prevent this.
If Iran and Syria are involved from the start, then this is either a limited military operation designed to leverage coparitively minor diplomatic advantage, perhaps weaker UNSC sanctions, or part of an all or bid for global supremacy through economic leverage.
If Iran has larger designs, they have to go big or stay home. Going big can include any or all of the following:
1. Temporarily closing the Gulf, using mines or missiles or air, against Coalition naval assets or civilian shipping at chokepoints.
2. A three pronged attack into Iraq, a blocking force through Amara to prevent concentrations of Coalition Forces from maneuvering SE from Baghdad, a fast armored thrust SW, bypassing Basra and Kuwait City to seize the Rumailla, Wafra and Ghawar oil fields, and wire them up for destruction, to use as bargaining points, or to strangle western economies. The third prong would be fifth columnists in Iraq, Al-Sadr, etc. The spoils here could attract....global interest.... and possibly even super-power partners.
3. Large scale terrorist attacks on a global basis. AQ's operational commander, Sayed Bin Laden, is last reported at Lavizan, Iran, along with 200 to 600 bayat AQ, think Brigade 055.
4. A multi tiered attack against Israel, first engaging IDF in Gaza, then Lebanon, then perhaps West Bank, followed by a possible missile attack towards Dimona to occupy IDF attention with an unpredictable fallout plume. This to set the stage for Syrian armor and air to stage a breakout over the Golan to mop up remaining IDF tconcentrations before a drive on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
5. Closing the Gulf puts Coalition troops in Iraq in a bind, logistics-wise, to support any large-scale air operations or offensice ground ops, a land bridge would have to open through Jordan or SA to meet the demand for munitions. Most units in iraq can hold their own indefinitely, while remaining potentially vulnerable to async attack.
6. Iranian log trains across the Al Faw will be vulnerable, especially to coordinated maneuver from Basra, Kuwait City, the SANG, and whatever can fight their way down from Baghdad, but Iran can resupply across the Gulf, and unless a spearhead is opposed, logistical demands on an occupation only force will be light.
7. If Iran was to risk all this, they have already calculated on losing Tehran, Esfahan, and Arak, Israel will not take a Chernobyl in their small country lightly. Targets in Esfahan and Arak will also release plumes, which could contaminate oilfields under certain weather conditions.
8. Beyond the political move, Iran has to do all of this or none of it, half measures make no sense, but then, they aren't exactly the most rational government I know of.
Assuming that Iran and Syria had no advance hand in this, they are runing behind the curve too, and will only be drawn in by excessive Israeli operations, and slowly, due to unpreparedness. If Israel stays out of Lebanon, and Syria does nothing stupid, this all stabilizes about like the West Bank offensive in one to two weeks, with gradual drawdowns on a similar schedule.
That covers the main branches of the probablity tree, my current read is 95% odds against Iran and Syrian planning, but some folks said that back in 1941 and early 2001, and they didn't enjoy the result.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
In the absolute worst case scenario, we blow open the Gulf after 30 days, waste whatever's left of Iran, tell Assad to report for detention in Baghdad not later than 48 hours, and try to figure out how to decontaminate or extinguish an unknown percentage of roughly half the world's proven reserves. I see no possible use for US nuclear weapons, with the remote exception of a WMD terrorist attack here, Iraq, or against US major allies, or unexpected involvement of Russia or China.
Let them! They'll soon find that they caught a tiger by the tail!
I think that Israel is purposely trying to NOT damage Lebanon or the Lebanese people...because they KNOW that Lebanon is trying to become democratic...
They just have this "appendage" called Hezbollah..that actually takes part in their government...(kind of like the LIBS take part in ours..lol)...
If you watched the UN Ambassador from Israel today..at the UN Security Council meeting...he was practically begging the Lebanon Ambassador to understand what they are doing..and getting him to understand that if they are successful at getting rid of Hezbollah...Lebanon will be a lot better off.
Therefore...I think, like you said...if the Americans stay low..and don't venture out..they should be okay until we can get them out.
I have to admit I was surprised when the aerial drone was used to take out an Israeli war ship. If they can do that then why can't they strike a downtown building filled with people, Israel's nuclear sites, or a major power plant?
keeper bump; excellent
I do too. And I want to just slap 'em when they start tslking about Wall Street "jitters".
I heard the same thing...and I remember being on a thread where that was discussed...
I was as incredulous as everyone else, and it has hurt my ability to listen to Hunt the way I used to...that, and I think he has been calling for Rummy to leave..and I DON'T like that.
Sorry, but I have no idea what the original SOURCE is.
check your ping list
lol
Didn't it come from a rumor on one of the Fox Sunday Show threads a couple of weeks ago?
I agree - hopefully they (Lebanon) will get the message
Despicable .. under the flag of the UN. Dump Kofi now, and move them the heck out of our America!
Interesting take.
Thanks.
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