Posted on 07/14/2006 2:25:43 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
If UN passes sanction against N. Korea, N. Korea may resort to nuclear test, according to some expert. Peter Hayes, a professor at Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia argued during an interview with RFA that Kim Jong-il may carry it out to show that he does not succumb to U.S. pressure.
Professor Hayes is an expert on energy and security issues. He has been running a project to build small power plants in N. Korea to solve its energy problem. He has visited N. Korea seven times for this project.
In the interview, he suspects that, based on his experience, domestic factors strongly influenced N. Korean decision to push ahead with missile launches. He was visiting N. Korea to discuss his project during 1998 launch of Taepodong-1 missile. At the time, a senior party official explained to Prof. Hayes that it is imperative for N. Korea to show defiance against U.S. because it will maintain pride among starving N. Korean population, and loyalty to Kim Jong-il from military and bureaucracy.
He thinks that things are no different now. Last September, joint agreement was reached at 6-party talks, but N. Korea must have concluded that no progress was made due to U.S. interference. As a result, Kim Jong-il may have found it necessary to side with military and hardliners in favor of missile launches, displaying that he is a strong leader, according to the professor.
Peter Hayes: It was incumbent upon Kim Jong Il to stand strong and be seen to be strong domestically.
External factor is also at play in the decision of N. Korean missile launches at this juncture, according to his analysis. That is, N. Korea may have concluded that it has nothing to lose. The ruling party in S. Korea was crushed in the local election of late May, which would lead to scaling down of aid to N. Korea(by S. Korea,) and U.S. showed no sign of accommodating N. Korean views on nuclear issue. Since China would not easily abandon N. Korea, N. Korea may have calculated that missile launches could provoke Japan which, in turn, draws U.S. attention.
However, Prof. Hayes predicted that, since Kim Jong-il managed to draw attention of the entire world by missile launches, it may go back to negotiation with U.S. again. Nevertheless, if UN Security Council is about to impose sanction of some kind on N. Korea, N. Korea would be severely humiliated, and Kim Jong-il may resort to nuclear test, in order to show that he does not bow to U.S. pressure, he added.
Peter Hayes: If the Security Council does deeply embarrass N. Korea, deeply push on N. Korea, then the other way for Kim Jong Il to recover is to conduct nuclear test.
He predicted that, even if N. Korea goes ahead with nuclear test, it will first show off preliminary steps to the test, to maximize its value as bargaining chip, before the final test.
Washing ton = Kim Yon-ho
/end my translation
Ping!
Thanks for the translation.
Don't you just "love" the way that N Korea and Iran have decided to deal with sanctions from the UN, or reprimands of any kind.
Sort of like a spoiled kid...do that and I'll do this.
With these two "loonies" in charge of countries (Kim Jong Il in NK and "President Tom" as Glenn Beck calls him because he can't pronounce the name, in Iran), it shows more than ever that the UN is useless, and irrelevant in this day and age.
He sure seems eager to fill his assigned roll of kicking off WWIII more overtly.
This is a more important story than, say, "Dan Rather mulling CBS lawsuit".
Also looks like he may not be nuclear yet. Why wait to test ?
We should give NK a pre-emptive nuclear test, followed by one in Iran for good measure. Courtesy of the US taxpayers! ;)
One has to wonder WHERE NK would explode a nuke?
"Don't you just "love" the way that N Korea and Iran have decided to deal with sanctions from the UN, or reprimands of any kind."
I don't mean a thread hijack here but you hit on something that is being overlooked.
North Korea produces missiles. Iran is trying to produce a bomb. Iran buys its missiles from NK. My thought on NK launching wasn't to demonstrate to the US that they could launch, it was to demonstrate to Iran that the short range missile is ready for manufacturing and delivery.
Both countries are working together to get concessions from the US. We aren't seeing this because of the diversion Hizbollah and Hamas caused with regards to Israel.
Out of curiosity, when relating distances, how far is Japan from NK in comparison to Iran and Israel?
Good, one less weapon we'll have to deal with..
We should test our neutron bombs north of the DMZ where all the NK artillery is dug in.
4 ... 3... 2... 1 ....CRICK!
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