Posted on 07/13/2006 2:13:09 PM PDT by winner3000
Hizbullah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers on Wednesday was a worrying escalation in the party's conflict with Israel. It signaled growing coordination between Hizbullah and its comrades in the militant Palestinian groups, particularly Hamas. Whether Hizbullah can persuade Southern Shiites to again become Palestinian cannon fodder remains to be seen; however, the growing boldness of Hizbullah and Hamas, backed by Syria and Iran, suggests that more violence lies ahead.
Several days ago, naive souls suggested that Khaled Meshaal, the senior Hamas official in exile, had been asked to leave Damascus. Analysts recalled how Kurdish Workers Party leader Abdullah Ocalan had been hurriedly expelled from Syria in 1998 because the Turkish Army was massing on the Syrian border. Things are different today, with no foreign armies at Bashar Assad's throat. Not surprisingly, Meshaal appeared defiant on Monday at a news conference in the Syrian capital.
Meshaal again showed how much he would like to turn Hamas into Hizbullah. He declared that Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit would only be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, an approach similar to the one followed by Hizbullah in Southern Lebanon in the past. The Syrians approve of this, as does Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. However, can Hamas afford Meshaal's ambitions? But, first, can Syria?
Forever protesting its innocence, Syria is at the heart of a network of destabilizing developments in the Middle East. The Syrian regime hosts Meshaal, arms Hizbullah, ferries combatants into Iraq (even if this is more controlled today than it was), irks the Jordanians, and tries to undercut Lebanese sovereignty. For Assad, exporting instability is compulsory in order to impose domestic quietude. An illegitimate regime like his needs outside volatility to justify repression at home, to keep Syria's regional opponents, or potential opponents, off balance, and to generate political polarization that displaces popular Syrian frustration elsewhere - in the latest episode against Israel's brutal reoccupation of Gaza.
After feeling Arab and international heat following the killing of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, Syria seems to have momentarily weathered the storm. The only cloud on the horizon is the Brammertz investigation, but its results won't be known until next year, giving Assad more breathing space than he could have anticipated a year ago. However, as one Syrian dissident put it, when the regime feels comfortable, it makes stupid mistakes. It may well on that course now.
Propped up by ambient instability, Syria will one day fall into the cauldron. The Saudis and Egyptians are no closer to pushing for Assad's removal, fearing what this might mean for them. The Bush administration would like to see the Syrian leader ousted, but doesn't have a plan and is worried about who may replace him. However, there is a misconception that Syria can indefinitely enforce the status quo. At some stage, Assad is likely to be devoured by the dangerous forces he has manipulated to consolidate his regime, but over which he has little real authority.
For example, can Assad long resist the Islamist genie he has called forth in recent years, and which his despotism only strengthens? There are those like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak who believe that Assad is the last barrier holding back the Islamists. But Assad's fragility is also why Syria's Islamists have become stronger at home and are likely to again confront the Alawite-led leadership when the situation permits. Assad may need the Islamists now, but one day they won't need him.
I would guess that this isn't being done on the fly by Israel. They have had a long, long time to think about what they would do when the gloves came off. Wait and see - I bet they do attack Syria, within a week.
I agree...time for the gloves to come off....whoa...Ann COulter on Big Story with John Gibson...gotta go.
We get it, you don't like Israel.
Your statement is incorrect and misleading. Israel is attacking the terror organization Hezbullah which happens to be entrenched in parts of Lebanon. Israel is not attacking Lebanese people but terrorists funded and supported by Iran and Syria. It is the misfortune of Lebanon that they happen to be the battleground. Israel will dismantle Hezbullah and remove it as a threat, thus benefitting the Lebanese people in the long run, people who now are under the thumb of this evil and corrupt terror organization.
FYI.
I don't agree, they may damage Hezbullah but not significantly to dismantle ir or even weaken it to allow the other Lebanese factions to dismantle it.
Hezbullah gets some logistical and most of its spiritual support from Iran and most of its logistical, from Syria.
Israel will not entrench in any positions she may seize, she will withdraw, this will only strengthen Hezbullah and weaken the other Lebanese factions.
In this case while punishing Lebenon on the whole is seen to be doing something, it will not damage the status quo.
If Israel really wants to dismantle Hezbullah it has to be atop down process, starting with Syria.
The problem is that while Israel can win a battle against the Syrian armed forces what will Israel do in the aftermath, occupy the whole of Syria. Israel does not have the manpower.
Topple the Syrian regime it can be done but then who will replace Assad, a Islamic movement.
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