Posted on 07/10/2006 12:11:27 AM PDT by M. Espinola
OIL PRICES will soar to well over US$100 a barrel and stay high as part of a sustained commodities bull run that has another 15 years to run, billionaire United States investor Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview.
One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets.
"We're going to have high oil prices for a very long time. The surprise is going to be how high it goes," Rogers said.
Reiterating earlier comment oil prices would hit at least US$100 a barrel, he said: "It will be much more than US$100 before the bull market is over."
U.S. light sweet crude hit a new record of US$75.40 a barrel on Wednesday and was trading at close to US$75 on Thursday.
Rogers, a former investment partner of billionaire fund manager George Soros, has predicted the commodities bull run has at least 15 years to run.
"It's a major long-term bull market as far as I'm concerned," he said.
Aside from the bullish impact of tensions, described by Rogers as temporary, over Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's missile tests, he said oil was drawing long-term support from the lack of large scale finds
He did not know whether the Peak Oil theory that oil supplies are either at or very near their peak was correct, but said: "If there is oil out there, you had better find it soon."
Apart from new supplies, a factor that could lower prices would be a widespread epidemic of bird flu spread between humans.
"If bird flu should break out, everything will go down and oil would go down to US$40, but I would still urge people to buy oil. It would go down less than other things and it would be the first to go back up," said Rogers.
Rogers has set up the Rogers International Commodity Index for gaining access to the commodity markets.
In the first half of this year, it outperformed its much bigger rivals the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index .
While the RICI gained 9.7 per cent in the first six months of this year, according to Reuters data, the GSCI rose 5.3 per cent and the DJ-AIG gained 3.6 per cent.
Rogers said he could not say exactly how much money was in the RICI, but it was at least $4 billion.
Because the Fed can 'print' more dollars when oil goes up and assets of the rich (like real estate) will be priced higher as a result of inflation.
BUMP
We need to replace oil with something else ASAP.
Saddam is still alive. That speaks volumes.
Shale oil is still very difficult to refine into anything usable. The hot market is tar sand. There is a huge program to mine and refine tar sands in Canada.
Perhaps this excerpt from Lawrence Kudlow's June 26 column on townhall.com will put things more in perspective:
"The Energy Department just announced that crude oil supplies rose 1.4 million barrels to 347.1 million for the week ended June 16. Analysts had been expecting a drawdown, so this news caught them by surprise. More, crude oil supplies in the U.S. are now at their highest levels since May 1998, when oil was trading around $15 a barrel. Add in the fact that Canadian oil inventories are fully stocked, and the more imminent reality is of a sizable oil-price decrease -- not a huge increase.
Recently I interviewed four oil-tanker executives who control a combined 85 percent of the oil coming into the United States. They confirmed market rumors that the amount of oil being stored on large carriers on the high seas is abnormally high. One of the CEOs even predicted the possibility of $40 to $50 oil in the next 6 to 12 months. In another interview, Chevron CEO David O’Reilly suggested that gasoline and energy demands have flattened in the U.S., and may be showing signs of decline."
That's not going to happen for a long time...Consumption is only going to increase.
My understanding is that there is significant expansion in the works.
Well, the first chance I get, I'm dumping gasoline and natural gas. I don't care how much the car sucks. I'm tired of sending a significant chunk of my paycheck to energy companies and big government.
I don't mind paying a fair price for it and I don't blame the Oil Companies who pull off a logistical miracle every day. With the fear premium built into the manipulated market, $10-$15 goes to FEAR during every fillup.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization -
OSI NATIONAL FOUNDATION OFFICE:
Soros Foundation - Kyrgyzstan
55A, Logvinenko St.
Bishkek, 720040
Kyrgyzstan
Phone: (996 312) 66 34 75, 66 34
Fax: (996 312) 66 34 48
Email: office@soros.kg
Executive Director: Mr. Medet Tiulegenov
Website: http://www.soros.kg/
yitbos
At the fifth annual SCO summit, held in mid June in Shanghai, participants castigated the United States in a not-so-subtle fashion. An SCO declaration insisted that determining Central Asia’s future was up to the states in the region, and not outside powers. "Models of social development should not be ‘exported,’" the declaration stressed. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Anti-Americanism is the glue that binds the six SCO member states – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – together. Washington’s perceived role in stoking the Orange Revolution phenomenon -- which peaked in March 2005 with the overthrow of Kyrgyzstan’s government – unsettled Central Asian leaders, sending them running to Beijing and Moscow for political succor. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. As a result, the SCO, which as recently as 2004 was receiving scant attention from the State Department, rapidly developed into a geopolitical threat to US interests.
Surprise, surprise, from Mr. Permabear. How can we take anything Jim Rogers says seriously, when he always says the same thing. If we listened to Rogers, we'd all have stayed out of the stock market since 1929.
They will have to crawl out of the bumper sticker covered old Volvo's :)
It's sounds as though you might be a tad jealous Jim Rogers made profits listening to his own advice. Then again, there were those which stated a few years ago, "oil would never reach $50 a barrel!" - wonder where they are today?
In terms of the Peak Oil theory, the Left has been pushing that as far back as 1973. Jimmy Carter's crowd downsizes the American automobile, while blaming the over taxed American public for the 'energy crisis'. The oil is there for US domestically, but the liberals will not allowing drilling.
Oil continues being discovered in various location around the globe.
Since early 2004 he's evidently not the only one.
It's really a factor of some ice and snow being slightly pushed aside :)
Then again, there were those which stated a few years ago, "oil would never reach $50 a barrel!" - wonder where they are today?
They're still saying "oil would never reach $50 a barrel!" but now they mean that as a bargain price.
Very good point.
Oil Trades Above $74 on Iran's Refusal to End Nuclear Research
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