Posted on 07/10/2006 12:11:27 AM PDT by M. Espinola
OIL PRICES will soar to well over US$100 a barrel and stay high as part of a sustained commodities bull run that has another 15 years to run, billionaire United States investor Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview.
One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets.
"We're going to have high oil prices for a very long time. The surprise is going to be how high it goes," Rogers said.
Reiterating earlier comment oil prices would hit at least US$100 a barrel, he said: "It will be much more than US$100 before the bull market is over."
U.S. light sweet crude hit a new record of US$75.40 a barrel on Wednesday and was trading at close to US$75 on Thursday.
Rogers, a former investment partner of billionaire fund manager George Soros, has predicted the commodities bull run has at least 15 years to run.
"It's a major long-term bull market as far as I'm concerned," he said.
Aside from the bullish impact of tensions, described by Rogers as temporary, over Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's missile tests, he said oil was drawing long-term support from the lack of large scale finds
He did not know whether the Peak Oil theory that oil supplies are either at or very near their peak was correct, but said: "If there is oil out there, you had better find it soon."
Apart from new supplies, a factor that could lower prices would be a widespread epidemic of bird flu spread between humans.
"If bird flu should break out, everything will go down and oil would go down to US$40, but I would still urge people to buy oil. It would go down less than other things and it would be the first to go back up," said Rogers.
Rogers has set up the Rogers International Commodity Index for gaining access to the commodity markets.
In the first half of this year, it outperformed its much bigger rivals the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index .
While the RICI gained 9.7 per cent in the first six months of this year, according to Reuters data, the GSCI rose 5.3 per cent and the DJ-AIG gained 3.6 per cent.
Rogers said he could not say exactly how much money was in the RICI, but it was at least $4 billion.
I don't know the reputation of this Rogers guy, but T. Boone Pickens says we will see $100 a barrel before years' end. Pickens knows more about the oil business than any species on the planet. We have China and Indias' economies to thank as well as the fact that world oil production is past the peak. Read Hubbard's Peak for your own interpretation.
Commodities "investing" goes something like this:
I'll bet you the price will go up
Response: I'll betcha it'll go down. How much ya wanna bet?
Stock market investing puts money into a system that historically has created wealth. Commodities investing puts money into a system that has a loser for every winner.
...no kidding....I've invested for 30 years and been a broker for over 15....and I would not touch the commodities market for me or my clients....except the already wealthy who want to really develop 10% as a hedge to their asset allocation....many newbies are getting in now and they don't realize unlike the stock market....you can lose everything....and quickly.....oh, but how they learn a lesson....
Bring it on, it'll be great for my motorcycle businesses.
:)
Oil hasn't gone up much lately (last 6 mos.). I'm betting (not literally)it will go below $60 before it goes over $100.
Executive order: screw the enviroweenies and start drilling EVERYWHERE! Start building three new refineries, one on each coast and one out in the middle.
Let me guess. Rogers is long oil. Am I smart or what?
And no way must will drill in ANWR or the continental shelf!! It would be bad for whales or polar bear or something!!
"One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets."
Sure. That or Barbara Streisand coming out of retirement.
Seems to me he is wrong a lot of the time, on a lot of issues.
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Probably, but he is among the richest men in the entire world, I wish I could be wrong that way!
Given he's hyping $100 oil and worrying about a bird flu pandemic, I'd say he's just parroting what he's read at the blog pimper site newspundit.net. Throw in the imminent collapse of the dollar and American real estate and you've hit the trifecta. LOL!
But none of the Indian or Pakistani recent Governments have
evidenced hostility to the West as Iran's mullahs have...
Likelyhood of a strike from that quarter is remote. From Iran, far higher based on Amadinejad's statements alone.
BLM has said the United States holds significant oil shale resources underlying a total area of 16,000 square miles. This represents the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world and holds an estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
Oil Shale Development in the United States, Prospects and Policy Issues
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.sum.pdf
Oil Shale and Tar Sands Leasing Programmatic EIS Information Center
http://ostseis.anl.gov/
Back in the 90's the Pakistanis were not friendly to the US and they actually detonated a nuke. The Saudi oil fields were still withing range of Saddam's scuds and Oil traded below $15. Throughout the late 90's the Iranians fielded new missiles along their coast. The current saber rattling has done nothing to affect the flow of oil and inventories are up...The traders are looking for any excuse right now and it is not justified.
I suspect there will be indictments coming soon. Months ago when Congress made threatening overtones, the price would drop overnight. Their investigation looked at the wrong people..As Ted Nugent would say..."It's a free for all!"
Never trust a guy in a bowtie - never.
Sounds a lot like what people thought about the "new economy" during the dot-com bubble...
Of course, with commodities, there's something "real" behind it, like oil.
But Rogers has been touting "commodities" on every show I've seen him on since the 90's.
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