I don't think there will be an uprising either.
I am basing this on my feelers in business & finance. International investors and the Mexican financial community reacted positively to the Calderon win on the day after the election. It faltered a bit as Obrador began to make threats.
But there is an eager emerging Mexican middle class that wants to see the country reap the benefits of free market reform that Calderon offers. And, if what I'm reading is right, Obrador is increasingly seen as a professional "victim" and a manipulator of the masses. Supposely there are a lot of people are cynical about his motives.
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Plus, ObraGore needs to carry on with his mayoral duties, no? I mean, what a contradiction... a guy who's a lawbreaker at heart in a position where he must uphold the law. Oh wait, we already know about that due to our mayor, Tony VillaRacista!!
Besides, he is not unanimously popular in La Capital. There are many residing there who are prosperous and conservative, the "emerging Mexican middle class" that you mention.
That's very good news. I'm sure you're right, the middle class is definitely not interested in Obrador or helping him have a tantrum because he didn't get what he wanted. And while many Mexicans are only nominally Catholic, the Church is also serving to calm things down. Fortunately the time of "liberation theology" (which really messed up Latin American life and religion in a big way!) seems to have passed, and common sense has returned to the Church south of the border. This can only have a positive, stabilizing effect.