750 Policemen Will Protect AMLO's Demonstrators Tomorrow in Mexico City (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | July 7, 2006 | Claudia Bolaños ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

livius, re your questions about the army being on alert, etc.

I have been combing through the Mexican web sites for exactly that kind of information today, and on the principle that "negative research is still valid research" -- which is another way of saying "if you don't find anything that tells you something" -- I can say that nothing has been written on the state of preparation. But rather than concluding that this would mean that the government is not worried, I think just the opposite.

I found an editorial today on the El Universal site -- it's in Spanish so I can't suggest you'll read it easily, but I'll give you the link just the same:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/columnas/59055.html

It is entitled "The Force of Power" by the El Universal columnist Raymundo Riva Palacio. If I can abstract what Palacio had to say in this editorial, which frankly I'd like to translate but to be honest I'm kicking back with a Sam Adams right now, it was that for the first time since he became President Fox finally showed that he has the cojones (my word) to be President when he saw the necessity of standing up to Lopez Obrador. Palacio doesn't hold back at all in depicting Fox as a neutral observer standing above the fray. No; according to Palacio Fox sees Lopez Obrador as the threat to Mexico's future and Fox finally "took the gloves off" and went after him during this campaign, and that is what decided it in favor of Calderon.

Let me quote one paragraph of that editorial (paragraph 2, my translation):

". . . The old regime changed its disguise and functioned like clockwork. They dressed the scary Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador in image of fear, and there is no greater fear than to feel fear. With regard to the PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo they laid explosive mines for him in the depths of his own party and they organized a humiliating campaign causing him a loss of prestige. With the former, these tactics helped to weaken the citizen support Lopez Obrador had obtained for free when the government tried to take him to jail; the second put conflicts in place in the heart of their machinery of electoral mobilization distracting and neutralizing them. . . ."

Now this does not say anything about whether Fox will use force if Lopez Obrador and his people challenge him. But I think it does give the impression that Fox has vested everything in Calderon's victory, that he and the PAN have created a public image of Lopez Obrador that identifies him as a threat, and that Fox is very much "hands on" in the presidential process. When I put all of that together -- and there's more in the article that suggests Fox really despises Lopez Obrador -- I have little doubt that Fox will move with vigor to restore law and order. But as I indicated in my previous post to Becki, I don't know what will happen between the moment the challenge to authority begins and ends and what will be the long-term consequences.

[StJacques]

"If this gets real nasty, what side will the Mexican military come down on?

Could or would, Vicente Fox call in the military and declare martial law, to restore order if Obrador attempted a coup?"

The Mexican military will side with the government, though they may (or perhaps will probably) extract a price for their intervention. Mexico is not like many other Latin American countries -- e.g Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador -- with historical traditions of the army intervening to force its political will on the people. Mexico's tradition is one of a very weakened army taking its orders from the civilian authority, at least since the Mexican Revolution of 1911.

On the rest see my #61 above to livius and Becki for additional opinions relevant to your question. I think most of that addresses your concerns as well.

[StJacques]

"I was reading an article on Obrador that said he is an authoritartian that believes the law should be what he says it is. Nothing liberal about that."

Ditto.

[La Enchiladita]

I believe it was Wed. night/Thursday morning that Mexican TV showed troops deployed in La Capital, as the final count was underway.

IIRC, your response, Bunny Slippers, was WHOA!

[BunnySlippers]

Jajaja ... now I remember it exactly! :)

[livius]

Thanks for the information! I read the article you linked to and it does look as if Fox is rearing up on his hindlegs here and preparing to fight. I don't follow Mexican politics closely enough to know most of the names in the article and what they signified, unfortunately, but it was an interesting analysis.

I hope everything goes well today. We'll all be watching, hoping you can just relax and kick back with another Sam Adams this evening after a long uneventful day. Or let's say, just a day of the usual long-winded meaningless leftist speeches, but no violence.

[livius]

Here's hoping the day is quiet and we don't have to find out the answer to my question!

[StJacques]

". . . hoping you can just relax and kick back with another Sam Adams this evening after a long uneventful day. . . ."

I hope that nothing gets out of control today either. I did note with interest just a few minutes ago -- I'm doing my morning examination of the Mexican web sites -- that even American newspapers are worried that AMLO's demonstration might get out of hand and both the Washington Post and the Washington Times have urged him not to let the situation get out of control. Even the Washington Post says (I'm translating from the Mexican article) "it appears some votes have been counted poorly, as is the case in almost all elections, but this does not signal a systematic attempt to falsify the result." The Washington Post???? The Washington Times went even further, so Mexicans are aware that the world sees dangers involved in that demonstration today.

And just in case you want to check out the original article livius, here's the link:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/361023.html

And I'll probably translate a little something today once I see what's out there, but what I'm really waiting for is the aftermath of the demonstration.

My neighbor is barbequeing today and he has promised to send some over in return for my preparing a batch of potato salad -- my Mom, god rest her soul, made the world's best and I've kept her recipe close -- so I'll hold the rest of my Sam Adams until the barbeque shows up.

[La Enchiladita]

I don't know enough about the environment in Mexico to predict how far the demonstrations will go, but my hunch is there will be no "uprising."

[La Enchiladita]

How does one obtain that potato salad recipe? Yum!

[BunnySlippers]

I don't think there will be an uprising either.

I am basing this on my feelers in business & finance. International investors and the Mexican financial community reacted positively to the Calderon win on the day after the election. It faltered a bit as Obrador began to make threats.

But there is an eager emerging Mexican middle class that wants to see the country reap the benefits of free market reform that Calderon offers. And, if what I'm reading is right, Obrador is increasingly seen as a professional "victim" and a manipulator of the masses. Supposely there are a lot of people are cynical about his motives.

.

[BunnySlippers]

Yum, me too!

[La Enchiladita]

Plus, ObraGore needs to carry on with his mayoral duties, no? I mean, what a contradiction... a guy who's a lawbreaker at heart in a position where he must uphold the law. Oh wait, we already know about that due to our mayor, Tony VillaRacista!!

Besides, he is not unanimously popular in La Capital. There are many residing there who are prosperous and conservative, the "emerging Mexican middle class" that you mention.

[StJacques]

Well I don't have the potato salad recipe written down, but maybe I can find the time to do so at a later date. The secret is mixing Colman's dry mustard into the mayonnaise with fresh lemon juice, fresh ground black pepper, and just a little sugar and letting it sit for an hour covered in the fridge before you do anything else. Once those flavors "marry up" -- God! I sound like Emeril! -- you can mix the potatoes and everything together. This is a "potato and egg salad" by the way, since a couple of hard boiled eggs are added.

[La Enchiladita]

Bless you, StJacques. I can't wait to try it and this is the season, too! Have a wonderful BBQ Saturday!

[BunnySlippers]

God! I sound like Emeril!

You forgot one thing: BAM!!!!

[livius]

That's very good news. I'm sure you're right, the middle class is definitely not interested in Obrador or helping him have a tantrum because he didn't get what he wanted. And while many Mexicans are only nominally Catholic, the Church is also serving to calm things down. Fortunately the time of "liberation theology" (which really messed up Latin American life and religion in a big way!) seems to have passed, and common sense has returned to the Church south of the border. This can only have a positive, stabilizing effect.

[livius]

Well, hell didn't freeze over when the WaPo said that, but it must at least have gotten a breath of cool air! It's surprising that a lot of normally pro-left sources are less than thrilled with the idea of massive disturbances going on right next door to us. It's a remarkable and unusual display of common sense on their part.

I think you'll be able to enjoy your BBQ and Sam Adams in peace tonight!

[BunnySlippers]

A new thread ... on the protests in the Zocolo in Mexico just picking up steam. You didn't plan on getting any sleep tonight, did you?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1662466/posts