The Real Threat From North Korea

SpaceWar.com ^ | 07/07/06 | by Anthony H. Cordesman

[garbageseeker]

The same North Korean ICBM efforts that throw a rock at Alaska can throw a large nuclear warhead at every ally the United States has in Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are not only close allies, they are critical trading partners. The risk of a war in this part of the world would inevitably threaten Chinese involvement in some form, and possible bloc trade with much of China for an extended period even if China did not become involved. Our troops and our bases in most of Asia would be at hazard as well.

Americans need to stop thinking parochially and selfishly and start thinking strategically. North Korea does not have to be able to hit the United States with meaningful nuclear threats to do much to deter or damage the United States

[sport]

A few years back, Red China jumped on North Vietnam to teach them a lesson about something.North Vietnam gave them a spanking.

[justa-hairyape]

The more the people become addicted to money and personal goods they will make the final plunge to become a democracy.

That is and was the hope of the Free World. As we saw in the former Palestine, democracy only works when the people voting want it to work. Unfortunately ruling party or political candidates can also stoke the fires of nationalism by taking on the big bad ole USA (Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Kim, Putin, Chirac, Schroeder, etc. etc.).

[Always Independent]

Thats very true. I guess that after the US left South Vietnam and the North took over, they must have thought that they wer going to call the shots. I'll bet they wer quite surprised!

[The_Reader_David]

Arm the Japanese? The Self-Defense Force is small, but just about the only military in the world that's up to US standards (some element of the UK's forces aside). I guess you missed the remark by a recent Japanese Defense Minister, "If on Monday Japan decides it needs nuclear weapons, by Friday it will have them."

Given that the Japanese Atomic Energy agency has 20 of the world's 100 largest supercomputers, and that you don't need supercomputers to design or run nuclear power plants, but you do need them to test nuclear weapons designs without actually setting one off, it sound to me like Japan already has a few 'non-bombs' that can be turned into nuclear bombs by turning a few screws.

For the peace of the world, we must hope the remark and the import of the Japanese supercomputers is not lost on Kim Jong-Il.

[kinetics]

China has only just started embracing capitalism and market-based economics, it's definitely too early to call quits and believe that China's political system will not change. It's a huge country, the effects of capitalism will trickle down slowly and occassionally it may still hiccup, but it's naive to say that capitalism since the 80s has not transformed China. In the span of a mere decade, there is already more than just a Hong Kong being the thorn now, Mainland Chinese cities like Shanghai are also becoming as capitalistic and open as ever.

See this set of recent photos of Shanghai: http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=85517

[justa-hairyape]

China and its economy are not the problem. The problem is with its dictatorial leaders. I am sure most of us still remember The Square. Chinese people have been hard working and productive for thousands of years. They built The Wall to keep barbaric hordes out. Some believe the Wall eventually drove the Hun and later Mongolian hordes west. Their Wall was the perfect defense against Horse Arching Hordes that could ride all day long. The West would later learn that they had no such defense.

[garbageseeker]

The problem is with its dictatorial leaders

Even though the Chinese are still repressive, they are softening up a tad because they like the cash flowing in from the West. The Chinese government is realizing that its not profitable to keep your population under the thumb of repression. I still cannot trust the Chinese because they still expansionist philosophy by using what ever means necessary. Their military intentions are also hostile. Kim Jong-Il is still clinging to the Stalinist-Leninist philosophy economics and oppression. Remember, this type of economy let to the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union and he is heading toward the same fate.

[justa-hairyape]

Remember, this type of economy let to the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union and he is heading toward the same fate.

And the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union has perhaps resulted in a mortally wounded Russia that still has yet to suffer through its final death throes. Apparently Kim and Castro are setting the example for how Commies 'gracefully' exit the world stage.

[garbageseeker]

You may see something to what happened to East Germany and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall happen to North and South Korea. That the economically rich south will save the north, but that cannot happen if that crazy man is still in power in North Korea.

[garbageseeker]

Exactly.

[garbageseeker]

Apparently Kim and Castro are setting the example for how Commies 'gracefully' exit the world stage.

Communism doesn't work because people like to own stuff." -- Frank Zappa

[garbageseeker]

It funny that its coming from Frank Zappa because he was a flaming liberal

[justa-hairyape]

You may see something to what happened to East Germany and West Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall happen to North and South Korea.

That would be an incredible sight. Very long 'wall' to tear down. And you are correct. As long as that nutjob is in power, the grass roots developed reunification is too risky for most Koreans. Thus, China keeps Kim in power. A reunified Korea could quickly become a very powerful ally. To the victor goes the spoils !

[kinetics]

North Korea is much poorer than East Germany was before reunification. Many South Koreans are too selfish to pick the tab for a sudden reunification (it will be a huge hit on their fickle economy). Their plan is to first get North Korea back on track on its own and then gradually reunify. I am not so sure if that's a good idea.

[garbageseeker]

Thus, China keeps Kim in power

Why is there six countries (Russia,U.S.,Japan,China,South Korea,and North Korea)involved in talking to solve the NK missile and nuclear matter when we should be talking to China? . The Chinese are the puppet masters and pulling the strings and we should directly talking to them not having this "six country" talks.

[kinetics]

The only economically first-world nation I know of that also has an authoritarian ruler is Singapore. Perhaps that's what China is modelling after?

[garbageseeker]

Many South Koreans are too selfish to pick the tab for a sudden reunification

Many families were cut off during the Korean War in the 1950s. I would think that it would be much easier to integrate them into a capitalist society. In Germany, there was no such case. There are already some limited contact between families between the north and the south.

[garbageseeker]

The only thing stopping the Korea peninsula to reunite peacefully is a ravings and actions of a lunatic.

[garbageseeker]

Perhaps that's what China is modelling after?

Perhaps

[justa-hairyape]

The Chinese are the puppet masters and pulling the strings and we should directly talking to them not having this "six country" talks.

So if the ventriloquist says something you don't like, you shoot the dummy ?

Perhaps this is the Drone Wars. One must speak to China's Drone (North Korea) to speak to China.