Posted on 07/07/2006 9:06:32 AM PDT by newgeezer
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Not only will the production of ethanol (on the scale to make it a worthwhile endeavor) use a lot of water but it will consume almost as much fuel as is ultimately produced. So bascially when you deduct the amount of fuel required to run those tractors, grain elevators, center-pivot irrigators, transportation, etc., etc., you end up with very little surplus fuel to actually put on the market. Certainly not enough to make a sizeable dent in our need to import.
There is also some fuzzy math in how that quota is measured.
The Committee Print of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, TITLE XVETHANOL AND MOTOR FUELS
(5) EQUIVALENCY.For the purpose of paragraph (2), 1 gallon of either cellulosic biomass ethanol or waste derived ethanol (A) shall be considered to be the equivalent of 1.5 gallon of renewable fuel; or (B) if the cellulostic biomass ethanol or waste derived ethanol is derived from agricultural residue or is an agricultural byproduct (as that term is used in section 919 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005), shall be considered to be the equivalent of 2.5 gallons of renewable fuel.
Biofuels will be an important piece of our energy future, but they cannot come close to replacing current US or world oil consumption. The U.S. used almost 140 billion gallons of gasoline and 62.3 billion gallons of distillate fuel (diesel fuel for highway transportation; add around 3 billion gallons of diesel for agricultural use) in CY 2004. Usage was about the same in 2005.
Ethanol is being billed as the leading supplement/alternate for gasoline. The U.S. produced approximately 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2005, which equals about 2.9% of gasoline consumption. With current technology, a bushel of corn will yield 2.8 gallons of ethanol in a dry mill. Therefore, the total amount of ethanol that could be produced by converting the entire 2005 U.S. corn crop into ethanol would be about 31.1 billion gallon, which equals only 22% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2005.
Also, energy potential of ethanol is misleading as a large amount of oil and natural gas is required to produce ethanol from corn. Several researchers have investigated the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of corn-based ethanol and the consensus is that it probably is between 1:1 and 1.5:1 i.e., it has a small net energy yield at best.
Yes, Brazil gained energy independence by producing their domestic resources. Their oil exploration and production made great improvements over the last couple decades. Ethanol provides about 15% of the countries transportation fuel.
Brazil Sugar Ethanol Update February 2006, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Many studies show that it takes more petroleum based energy to produce alcohol than you get from the alcohol. All the subdiies do is tax everyone to subsize ADM & corn producers. Any search engine will give lots of references
"Gasohol, a mixture of up to 10-percent ethanol with gasoline, has been in wide use in farm states for 30 years, and all new cars are engineered for this fuel."
I filled up in Maine and to my delight and glee saw 10% Ethanol on the pump. There will be a day when it is 85% Ethanol and then I will really be excited. We need Ethanol, Bio-Diesel, Coal to Synth Oil & Nuclear Power to really wean ourselves away from petroleum in the next decade. We have taken the right steps forward but energy independance should be our number one national priority and then fighting terrorism number two. After all much of terrorism is funded from oil revenues from Iran to princes in Saudi Arabia.
The situation in Brazil is very interesting and could become an example for us all. Actually am I though more interested in ideas of using bacteria and such to turn EVERY waste product in farming (not just the optimal as today) into biofuel.
If that will become possible in the future, and I beliewe that, or something close to that, is more likely than an adequate storage solution for hydrogen, much of our energy problems will be solved.
But then, the question is, where is the biofuel going to come from? Are we going to use government money to help our western farmers to create it for us, or are we going to allow the poor nations of the earth to finally use their potential and lift themselves out of powerty? And thus ease the pressure of poor people on your borders!
There should not be any restrictions, tarifs or anything like that on importing biofuels, and certeinly not additional government funding for its creation here in the West, enough of money go down that (farming) drain today.
Sadly for my country, wich is betting on hydrogen as the future, I beliewe that technical process is going to make biofuel the future.
Clueless - read Pimental before you make the mistaken claim that ethanol reduces dependence on foreign oil
Never mentioned to my knowledge is any thought of what the increased demand for corn for fuel will do to the food market.
I would think the cost of cattle feed would increase which would of course raise your grocery bill.
"Ethanol is being billed as the leading supplement/alternate for gasoline. The U.S. produced approximately 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2005, which equals about 2.9% of gasoline consumption. With current technology, a bushel of corn will yield 2.8 gallons of ethanol in a dry mill. Therefore, the total amount of ethanol that could be produced by converting the entire 2005 U.S. corn crop into ethanol would be about 31.1 billion gallon, which equals only 22% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2005.
Also, energy potential of ethanol is misleading as a large amount of oil and natural gas is required to produce ethanol from corn. Several researchers have investigated the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of corn-based ethanol and the consensus is that it probably is between 1:1 and 1.5:1 i.e., it has a small net energy yield at best."
Good statistics and your assumption of using corn for the ethanol product is correct. Switchgrass which grows in plenty over millions of acres in the mid-west can also add another estimated 20% of gasoline production and is much cheaper to produce. I think the biggest challenges are shipping, storage and building nuclear plants to power the conversion of raw materials so we dont use oil or nat gas.
as much as i'm in favor of being independent from foreign oil my biggest concern in NOT that or global warming....my biggest concern is the price! Maybe that makes me short sighted and selfish but I can't raise my family if the price of fuel rises and so does the price of groceries.
Keep things cheap! I need to live people!
Brazil gets about 15% of their transporation fuel from ethanol.
--Boris
A friend of mine lives in Brazil and he said all the hype in our lame-stream media is just that - hype. Once everyone got on the veggie fuel bandwagon, they just raised the price of that and now it's not cheaper anymore.
"Ultimately biofuels will come up short, for the simple reason that they can't be produced in the quantities needed to run an economy the size of the USA's."
You must not have seen the biofuel report that was on CNBC in which it was reported that manure from 600 cows could produce enough fuel to power 900 households...a rather stunning idea.
It would be terrific to have every feed lot in the Texas Panhandle pouring energy onto the Texas power grid. I'm all for these win-win solutions to our energy problem.
Sounds like Bull Sh!t to me.
Lousy analogy. Hamburger Helper is much cheaper than ground beef.
Ethanol is much more expensive than gasoline. Even here in cornland where ethanol is a sacrament, the ethanol supporters agree that the current 10% ethanol fuel we buy increases the price by 40 or 50 cents per gallon over what 100% gasoline would cost.
And that is just calculating the cost at the pump. It is not calculating the billions of our tax money that go to the Illinois welfare queen D'Andreas.
The high price is artificial caused by a handful of farm states in the mid west. It can also be made from coal. It might take a year or so to make commercial quantities to scale because it's a little harder than making a backyard still. We have 200 years of coal.
Within the next 5-10 years, we should have comercial quanities of celulose made ethanol.( grass, pine needles, wood chips, trash, you name it). You may even have people pay you for your grass clippings. In short, ethanol is high because of politics, not supply.
Is that a "what the market will bear" pricing feature?
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