Posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:31 PM PDT by chilepepper
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.
Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.
A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.
In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.
Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.
While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.
Another update:
73.58% de casillas computadas.
Candidatos Presidenciales:
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360325.html
Partial counts say nothing if they favor certain districts...
http://www.elecciones.imagen.com.mx/imagen.php
Total count from original tally
PAN / Calderon: 14,027,214 36.38%
PRI: 8,318,886 21.57%
PRD/ Obrador: 13,624,506 35.34%
This has a weird Florida 2K redux feel to it. If Calderon pulls it out, as he should, the leftists will have a hissy fit because these partial results showed their guy ahead.
OTOH, if there is a change in the winner that dramatic, it puts the whole election in doubt.
Just when I had breathed a sigh of relief...
74.68% de casillas computadas.
Candidatos Presidenciales:
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.81 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.6 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.03 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
Which half, the one in the US or the one wanting to be in the US? Remember, the revolution that the neo marxists are calling for won't just be in Mexico...
1. Just because Obrador would be willing to fight it out in the streets if he lost, and just because he's arrogant, doesn't lead to the conclusion that Obrador rather than Calderon is stealing the election. It could easily be the case that Obrador really did get more votes. Even if Obrador wanted and intended to steal the election, it could still be the case that he didn't need to steal the election because he got more votes.
2. The fact that Calderon "won" the first count by 1% means nothing, if that victory margin was obtained by massive theft to begin with. That is not too big a difference so as to be unaccountable for by widespread cheating. Remember, the ruling party is in charge of the vote tabulation.
Please understand, I'm not trying to exonerate Obrador or implicate Calderon. I don't even know if there was any widespread voter fraud. I'm just challenging the assumption that stealing Mexican elections would only be a province of the most leftist candidate.
In other words, don't project U.S. political labels onto Mexican politicians and parties. Obrador is not Gore, and Calderon is not Bush. Either or neither or both of the two Mexican candidates could be guilty of attempting to steal the election. And if Obrador wins the recount (which I think is unlikely, even though he's ahead at this point) you shouldn't discount the possibility that it was a legitimate victory.
There were slightly less than 400,000 thousand votes separating the two in the preliminary count. So we're down to 380,000 or so, depending on where else Obrador picked up votes, and assuming Calderon doesn't pick up some in his districts.
77.93% de casillas computadas.
Candidatos Presidenciales:
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.73 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.63 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.09 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360327.html
Is there any source of the raw vote totals. I get the feeling that these numbers reflect not the total vote count but the new additional votes or change from the initial count.
I'll let you take the lead for posting now, have things to do away from the computer.
PAN's claiming that the states still out favor PAN:
De acuerdo con un reporte del PAN en los estados donde López Obrador ganó, los porcentajes de contabilidad de actas son, entre otros: En Hidalgo, 97.05%; en Zacatecas, 94.57%, en el Estado de México, 88.32%, en Guerrero, 86.56%; Campeche, 83.71%; mientras que el que menos avance tiene es Morelos con el 64.55%.
(These are the pro-PRD states, which have been mainly counted)
En contraparte, en los estados donde ganó Calderón el avance es menor, en San Luis Potosí, es de 87.43%, en Coahuila, 85.39%,; en Jalisco, 77.07%; Tamaulipas, 76.46%, mientras que en los que menos avance se tiene son Colima con 17.11%, Baja California con 37.20%, Sonora con 37.95% y Durango con 39.11%.
(These are the pro-PAN states, which haven't been)
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360358.html
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