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Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]
www.easybourse.com ^ | 05 July 2006 | Tom Barkley

Posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:31 PM PDT by chilepepper

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.

Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.

A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.

In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.

Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.

While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Mexico; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: calderon; chavez; election; elections; happyjimmuhcarter; horroratdu; mexico2006; obrador; presidentialelection; shtf
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To: conservative in nyc

Another update:

73.58% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360325.html


41 posted on 07/05/2006 4:11:22 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: conservative in nyc


Partial counts say nothing if they favor certain districts...
http://www.elecciones.imagen.com.mx/imagen.php

Total count from original tally
PAN / Calderon: 14,027,214 36.38%
PRI: 8,318,886 21.57%
PRD/ Obrador: 13,624,506 35.34%

This has a weird Florida 2K redux feel to it. If Calderon pulls it out, as he should, the leftists will have a hissy fit because these partial results showed their guy ahead.

OTOH, if there is a change in the winner that dramatic, it puts the whole election in doubt.


42 posted on 07/05/2006 4:13:10 PM PDT by WOSG (-)
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To: chilepepper

Just when I had breathed a sigh of relief...


43 posted on 07/05/2006 4:18:19 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: WOSG
Yes, partial counts say nothing if all the remaining votes are from pro-PAN Northern Mexico. And we have absolutely no idea where the counted votes are coming from. But the trends haven't been comforting, and the PRD conspiracy theorists will have a field day if the numbers reverse themselves when 99% of the votes are counted.
44 posted on 07/05/2006 4:18:35 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

74.68% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.81 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.6 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.03 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %


45 posted on 07/05/2006 4:24:09 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: Unam Sanctam
74.68% Reporting:

Obrador (PRD): 36.81%
Calderón (PAN): 34.6%

El Universal is reporting that all of Tabasco district IV is in (heavy PRD territory), and Obrador picked up 20,405 votes from the preliminary count.
46 posted on 07/05/2006 4:25:53 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: CedarDave
75.08% in now:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.78 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.05 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360329.html
47 posted on 07/05/2006 4:32:18 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: DesScorp
Lefties are gonna steal this one, and over half of Mexico is gonna be pissed off...I mean violent, blood in the streets pissed off.

Which half, the one in the US or the one wanting to be in the US? Remember, the revolution that the neo marxists are calling for won't just be in Mexico...

48 posted on 07/05/2006 4:32:24 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: redgolum
76.46% in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.76%
Felipe Calderón: 34.62%
Roberto Madrazo: 22.07%
Patricia Mercado: 2.71%
Roberto Campa: 0.94%

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360328.html
49 posted on 07/05/2006 4:44:07 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: WOSG
" Why would you assume that it's Obrador who is stealing the election and not Calderon? " 1. Obrador made clear that he would take action if he lost, meaning street action, etc. He has arrogantly assumed he would win all along. Obra-gore indeed. 2. The full first count had Calderon winning by 1%. You *dont* change numbers that much.

1. Just because Obrador would be willing to fight it out in the streets if he lost, and just because he's arrogant, doesn't lead to the conclusion that Obrador rather than Calderon is stealing the election. It could easily be the case that Obrador really did get more votes. Even if Obrador wanted and intended to steal the election, it could still be the case that he didn't need to steal the election because he got more votes.

2. The fact that Calderon "won" the first count by 1% means nothing, if that victory margin was obtained by massive theft to begin with. That is not too big a difference so as to be unaccountable for by widespread cheating. Remember, the ruling party is in charge of the vote tabulation.

Please understand, I'm not trying to exonerate Obrador or implicate Calderon. I don't even know if there was any widespread voter fraud. I'm just challenging the assumption that stealing Mexican elections would only be a province of the most leftist candidate.

In other words, don't project U.S. political labels onto Mexican politicians and parties. Obrador is not Gore, and Calderon is not Bush. Either or neither or both of the two Mexican candidates could be guilty of attempting to steal the election. And if Obrador wins the recount (which I think is unlikely, even though he's ahead at this point) you shouldn't discount the possibility that it was a legitimate victory.

50 posted on 07/05/2006 4:52:59 PM PDT by dpwiener
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To: conservative in nyc

There were slightly less than 400,000 thousand votes separating the two in the preliminary count. So we're down to 380,000 or so, depending on where else Obrador picked up votes, and assuming Calderon doesn't pick up some in his districts.


51 posted on 07/05/2006 4:53:08 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: CedarDave
76.46% in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.76 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.07 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360345.html
52 posted on 07/05/2006 4:58:40 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc
77.93% in:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.73 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.63 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.09 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360327.html
53 posted on 07/05/2006 4:59:34 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

77.93% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.73 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.63 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.09 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360327.html


54 posted on 07/05/2006 4:59:42 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: conservative in nyc

Is there any source of the raw vote totals. I get the feeling that these numbers reflect not the total vote count but the new additional votes or change from the initial count.


55 posted on 07/05/2006 5:03:43 PM PDT by politicals (Condi/Giuliani 2008!!!!!)
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To: politicals
Is there any source of the raw vote totals. I get the feeling that these numbers reflect not the total vote count but the new additional votes or change from the initial count.

I haven't found one. My Spanish stinks, but from reading the articles, it appears to be the total vote count. We have no idea which Mexican States have yet to report, though, and there was a huge variation in vote by region.
56 posted on 07/05/2006 5:06:00 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc

I'll let you take the lead for posting now, have things to do away from the computer.


57 posted on 07/05/2006 5:11:16 PM PDT by CedarDave (When a soldier dies, a protester gloats, a family cries, an Iraqi votes)
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To: CedarDave
79.21 in & closing a bit:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.71 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.65 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.1 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360341.html
58 posted on 07/05/2006 5:13:42 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: CedarDave

PAN's claiming that the states still out favor PAN:

De acuerdo con un reporte del PAN en los estados donde López Obrador ganó, los porcentajes de contabilidad de actas son, entre otros: En Hidalgo, 97.05%; en Zacatecas, 94.57%, en el Estado de México, 88.32%, en Guerrero, 86.56%; Campeche, 83.71%; mientras que el que menos avance tiene es Morelos con el 64.55%.
(These are the pro-PRD states, which have been mainly counted)

En contraparte, en los estados donde ganó Calderón el avance es menor, en San Luis Potosí, es de 87.43%, en Coahuila, 85.39%,; en Jalisco, 77.07%; Tamaulipas, 76.46%, mientras que en los que menos avance se tiene son Colima con 17.11%, Baja California con 37.20%, Sonora con 37.95% y Durango con 39.11%.
(These are the pro-PAN states, which haven't been)

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360358.html


59 posted on 07/05/2006 5:24:45 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc
According to the Mexican newspaper, El Norte:

80.44% in:

Obrador 36.67%
Calderon 34.67%

http://www.elnorte.com/
60 posted on 07/05/2006 5:30:18 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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