Posted on 06/28/2006 3:42:39 AM PDT by Dane
UT 3: Cannon's Win Blunts Immigration Foes' Momentum By Michael Teitelbaum | 3:34 AM; Jun. 28, 2006 | Email This Article
Five-term Rep. Chris Cannon won Tuesday’s Republican primary in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District by a comfortable margin, thwarting a determined effort by challenger John Jacob and some activist opponents of illegal immigration to cast him out because of his relatively moderate position on that hot-button issue.
Cannon’s win — by 56 percent to 44 percent, with all precincts reporting — also was a political pick-me-up for President Bush, with whom Cannon is allied in supporting a nuanced approach on immigration: They both support a plan, embodied in a bill passed by the Senate and backed by many in the business community, that combines tougher border security with a guest worker program that would legitimize employment and provide a path to citizenship for many of the estimated 11 million to 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States.
That measure stands in contrast to a House bill, passed mainly with support of Republican members, that focuses almost entirely on immigration law enforcement and border security and excludes any mention of a guest worker program. Jacob endorsed the House approach in his challenge to Cannon.
Bush recorded an endorsement statement for Cannon near the end of the primary campaign that was widely broadcast in Utah 3, a conservative Republican bastion where the president received a whopping 77 percent of the vote in his 2004 re-election contest. First lady Laura Bush also recorded a message on Cannon’s behalf.
It would be an exaggeration to say that the outcome was a clear-cut verdict on the immigration issue. The White House backing was just one of several major advantages enjoyed by Cannon, including his ability to tout legislative measures he had taken on behalf of the district as the incumbent, name ID that was far superior to Jacob’s, and a campaign treasury that was roughly double that of the challenger.
Jacob also exposed his political inexperience, and may have damaged his campaign, with a pair of late and ill-timed statements.
Jacob said a “force” had been working against him in the primary and in his business life and, when pressed, indicated that the force was Satan. He also said he once did some gambling, but stopped when the leader of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — to which Jacob, Cannon and most 3rd District residents belong — condemned such activities.
But the outcome of the primary will be most analyzed for what it says about immigration, and will likely challenge some preconceived notions about how the issue is playing politically — particularly among those Republicans who contend that the party’s conservative base is fired up about the issue and demanding a hardline approach.
The contest was portrayed by those on both sides as a microcosm of the Republican schism over immigration, and its venue in an overwhelmingly conservative district made it a test case of the priority that the party base places on the issue.
Jacob constantly tested Cannon on this central campaign issue. He was supported by staunch activist opponents of illegal immigration who portrayed Cannon as too soft, likening his position to “amnesty” (a characterization to which the incumbent strongly objected).
Jacob was backed by a roughly $50,000 independent expenditure on ads, most of them blasting Cannon, run by Team America, a political action committee founded by Colorado Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo — Congress’ most vocal hardliner on immigration — and currently led by Bay Buchanan, a conservative media figure and sister of former presidential aspirant Pat Buchanan.
Buchanan was undeterred by Cannon’s victory. “With a very direct and simple message and little money, we have been able to take an incumbent Republican and put him on the ropes, forcing the establishment to circle the wagons,” Buchanan said. She noted that this was the first of many races in which the PAC will be an active participant, adding, “We have made this congressman pay for his amnesty votes.”
The conservative dissidents can legitimately claim to having chipped a bit into Cannon’s support base. Cannon’s vote percentage was down a couple of points from 2004, when he faced a primary challenge from former state Rep. Matt Throckmorton — also focused primarily on the immigration issue — and won by 58 percent to 42 percent.
Cannon secured his relatively easy victory by maintaining majority support in his home base of Utah County, which includes the city of Provo and provides roughly half of the district’s vote. Cannon won there with 55 percent — the same vote share he received in the 2004 primary — even though Jacob, a developer, also resides in Utah County.
Cannon did endure some slippage elsewhere: It was most pronounced in the suburbs of Salt Lake City, which provides roughly a third of the district’s vote. The district’s portion of Salt Lake County — where Cannon won by 19 percentage points two years ago — gave Cannon just a 3 percentage-point edge over Jacob.
Cannon nonetheless outran Jacob in all seven counties that are wholly or partially in the 3rd.
Despite an often vitriolic campaign, Jacob conceded with a unity statement in which he said, “Congressman Cannon and I were not opponents; we were two patriots with differing views for America’s future.” He added, “It is true that Congressman Cannon and I have had disagreements. There will be time enough to address those continuing concerns, but tonight we lay aside our differences in order to unite together as Republicans.”
Cannon now rates as a shoo-in for his general election contest against lawyer Christian Burridge, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Cannon was re-elected two years ago with 63 percent of the vote.
CQ rates the general election contest as Safe Republican. Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all rating
Nuts.
What a PANT-LOAD!
The challenger went "just a little" NUTS in the last days of the election, blaming "the Devil" for his slide in the polls.
This election, in a state I cannot vote in, has had NO effect on my determination to rid the U.S. of as many of the illegal invaders as possible.
This propaganda piece is crowing by the open borders lobby, and a clear reason for those who take the invasion seriously to work all that much harder.
Well, well, well. Have these folks won any race they've targeted?
LOL...She should try and keep up with current events........Cannon WON ! She LOST!
Dane has made you look downright foolish. And your weak response does nothing to counter that.
I am quite amazed at how little immigration actually resonates with real voters. The only race it appears to have effected (remember the Gilchrist juggernaut?) is the Bilbray race and it's not clear that it effected that either.
For all of the excuses, Cannon only outspent Jacob (according to some reports) 3-2. Any primary challenger anywhere in the country would kill to have a warchest 67% as large as the sitting incumbent.
Of course, Jacob had the disadvantage of having soft positions across the board and whose actual immigration proposal sounded worse than Cannon's. So maybe on balance voters do care, a little, when it's an issue being touted by a serious candidate.
Betcha Cannon has seen the light.
If you want some cheap entertainment, ask these guys to defend Teddy's No Child Left Behind. Cognitive dissonance is funny.
Wishful thinking. We've had gains and we've had losses. We'll evaluate, retool and fight again.
I thought when a candidate did not win big in primaries, things might look grim for him elsewhere? Cannon is an incumbent. I would have expected him to get better than fifty-something percent of GOP support.
Wishful thinking by frightened elitists. Nothing more.
Yep, him and the rest of the GOP have seen the light...that despite the major efforts by bay buchanan's team and Tancredo's PAC, Cannon won a double digit victory with the voters by not appeasing the single issue crowd.
I tell you I have been going around the web today and its laughable the BS people are trying to spin
Ok. let me get this straight. In the one of the most conservative Republican districts two Republicans went head to head. Cannon has had almost a non stop campaign aganst for now four years from the Tancredo Crowd. Yesterday there was low turnout which should have helped the single issue crowd. Cannon even had Sean Hannity talking bad about him. LOrd when was the last time a talk show host even knew of my Congressman. So we had two Republicans going mano to mano on this issue. In the end Cannon wins. Its was almost a exact replay of two years ago.
A few points
(1) Low voter turn out.- I really suggest that the rethoric has got to end. all this talk of Republicans being traitors, open border lobby, spineless backfires. Its nasty untrue and hurts us. Just stop it. The voters throw up their hands and find something better to do
(2) Name calling- This is related to point 1. It needs to stop. Rino used to mean people like Senator Chaffe. Now its applied to people like Lindsy Grahman. Sen Martinez, Sen BrownBack, and former Southern Baptist minister now Gov possible 08 hopeful Mike Huckabee. Please just stop. Its silly now and the folks in a Republican primary just told you its was. Its destructive and its just plain dishonest.
(3) Time to compromise a little. The Tarrence poll, the wall street journal poll, the RNC poll has stated that Americans like a compromise in this issue. America hates the extremes now start governing and quit Listening to the extremes
(4)If you don't like the Republican party then leave. If you want to go to the Bay and Pat Buchanan Party or Const party do so. We will battle it out there. But at the end of the day this was a big victory. I have stated if we had lost there would be no way I could spin it otherwise. There is no way you can spin this. The ultimate poll occured yesterday. It involved the most conservative voters after hearing of this issue nonstop for 4 years getting in their cars and saying yes or no. They spoke.
So its times to quit calling people dishonest names like the "open border lobby". Its time to deal with the issue and move on.
I wonder if there is an old election tread fron two years ago when Cannon ran. I bets its the same ole spin. Trying to manufacture victory from plain defeat
I will give this "referendum" vote credit in that regard. This election does send a very clear message to the GOP; American's do want something done about the borders, but they don't care for Tancredo's ideas.
The good thing is this should provide momentum for the Pence Plan which is reasonable and has strong support.
Thank you for that well thought out summation of the current immigration situation.
I've actually been called a racist by Dane when I wrote about two of my neighbors being raped by an illegal. We have a problem here in Arizona. I am sick of Tancredo and his troops making this an issue that can not be discussed.
IIRC, you didn't say that it was your neighbors who were raped, but a general stereotype that all illegals are violent criminals and I posted a picture of a an african american who was charged in the brutal slayings of 7 people and the white guy from Reno who shot the Judge and murdered his divorced wife to make a point that evil knows no ethnic boundries.
As for you comments about tancredo I agree with you completely, he has poisoned the debate and that is why I support a more level headed person such as Mike Pence, who isn't looking for glory or to sell books. And it is tancredo himself who has also attacked Mike Pence.
My thoughts and prayers to your neighbors and I hope things are going better for them now.
I've been spending a lot of time with one of the women because she's not doing well at all. She won't even leave her house now. I sleep with a loaded gun beside my bed. One night a few months back, an illegal tried to break in my back door. I stood in my own kitchen in my bare feet with a gun pointed at his head. He left when he saw me. He was captured by the police two houses down from me. My Mexican-American neighbor is the one who told me he was illegal.
Simple truth is, we are having a problem and I'm sick to death of being accused of being a racist when I try to tell people that we ARE having a problem.
I've lived in Arizona all my life, Mexicans are a part of our heritage, a LOVED part of our heritage, but what is coming across the border now is not the same people who used to come across the border and something had better be done about it.
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