Democrat Down Cycle (On the defensive in key Senate races/Lieberman looks good/Mineta's successor)

The American Prowler ^ | 6/26/2006 | The Prowler

[nickcarraway]

DEAN'S DELUSIONS

Democrat National Committee chairman Howard Dean is seeing polling numbers that are making him a nervous man. Recent internal polling data for Senate races from Washington state, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, and Maryland -- with the exception of Missouri, which is a GOP defense -- shows Democrat support cratering if not crumbling around the edges.

Missouri's seat -- held by Sen. Jim Talent-- "was one we'd targeted as winnable, along with Pennsylvania, and all of those other seats weren't ones we were overly concerned about, even Maryland, where we think we have two strong candidates on our side," says a DNC staffer. "But now we're seeing bad signs inside our polling data and folks here aren't happy."

Why should they be? In Maryland, where Rep. Ben Cardin is leading in fundraising, former Rep. Kweisi Mfume is actually ahead of Cardin in name recognition and support in some Democrat polls. Republican Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steele is currently garnering greater support among African-Americans than any other Republican in recent state history.

In Michigan, where there is a contested Republican primary to face off against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrats across the state are seeing support collapsing, and Stabenow is now considered in danger by her own party. In Minnesota Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) is polling ahead of expectations, and in Washington state, Democrat Sen. Maria Cantwell is now the No. 1 Republican target in the 2006 cycle as her polling numbers slide.

"The problem is this: we've committed huge amounts of resources on the state level in anticipation of that investment paying off in getting out the vote," says another DNC staffer. "Dean has taken heat for spending so much money. Right now, that investment isn't looking very good and no matter what anyone says, we're nervous. Things were never as good as people were saying they were, and now the numbers are confirming that."

Dean especially has been taking heat from Sen. Chuck Schumer, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and from minority leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi about the amount of upfront spending the DNC has been making. They had been pressing for the DNC to invest funds into the House and Senate campaign committees so that the funds could be used for important races.

"We had targeted Pennsylvania and Maryland as high cost races," says an outside Democrat political consultant. "After that, you're looking at Missouri and Minnesota as races we really wanted to win. Now, we're looking at spending a lot more in Maryland and Minnesota, and a lot more than we probably budgeted in Washington and Michigan. That means less for other states. The upshot is if the numbers hold or continue to get worse, we aren't winning the Senate."

LIEBERMAN'S OPPORTUNITY All of that bad Democrat news makes the ongoing saga between Connecticut Democrat, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and his party all the more interesting. At a time when his party can ill afford to alienate centrist constituencies across the country, it is doing just that with Lieberman, and some senior Republicans are wondering whether they shouldn't get into the fight to help Lieberman despite the fact that a weakened Lieberman could mean a win for their expected nominee in the state, Alan Schlesinger.

"Lieberman has been a more loyal American and a real leader for our nation than some of the men we have on our side of the aisle in the Senate," says a Republican fundraiser. "I don't want to see Lieberman lose to a leftist nut like Ned Lamont."

Lamont is a communications executive who is challenging Lieberman in the Democratic primary. Lamont has run almost exclusively as an anti-war, MoveOn.org candidate. Recently, Lieberman's former running mate, Al Gore, refused to support Lieberman, and just yesterday, Sen.Russ Feingold refused to support his colleague.

There have been rumors that Lieberman, were he to lose the Democratic primary, would run as an independent. To that end, some members of his campaign have been quietly preparing petitions to collect the necessary 7,500 signatures that are required for submission the day after the August 8th primary.

An independent Lieberman scares Democrats, if only because they fear he will increasingly side with Republicans in a newly aligned Senate. "I don't know why they are treating him so badly at a time when they should be trying to embrace him a bit more, if only for his vote," says a Republican. "You sense that guys like Feingold are talking to the wrong people, the nutty left. Feingold listens to them, does what they tell him, and then when it comes time to actually do something, they don't have the power or the votes to really help. Lieberman isn't a marginal guy. Feingold is. The environment right now is just crazy."

WON'T FLY Some Bush administration and senior Senate staffers are warning the White House away from one of the potential replacements for departing Transportation Secretary Norm Mineta: Federal Aviation Administration head Marion Blakey. Blakey, who previously served as chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board, is considered a strong candidate.

But the FAA is mired in trouble right now, with failing infrastructure and poor career management, political infighting, and trouble with outside contractors who have failed to resolve technology problems the FAA was aware of but chose not to pursue.

"Now just isn't her time," says a Senate staffer. "We've suggested to the White House that they look in another direction."

[WestVirginiaRebel]

It's the same thing that happened in 1896. Aldai Stevenson I was seen as too much of an Establishment candidate by delegates who wanted "Fresh voices," so they went with William Jennings Bryan for the next three elections. The result was that they lost the Presidential election for the next twenty years. Those who don't remeber their history, etc.

[GregH]

It bemusing to see Dems being deluded on the basis of polls, they think they got a nation so vast and so diverse like America covered on the basis of polling a few thousand people.

However the Republicans are pleased to have their Dems as their opponents.

[Common Tator]

The reason Dean has held his job is sort of stated but not fully in the story. First Dean ran on the platform that he would take the money that the DNC collected and return it to the states for get out the vote efforts. Since most DNC members are state officers from Blue States, Dean promised to return the money to the states. He promised not to return money to just a few states with contested races but to return money in nearly equal amounts to all states. The state officials ate that up. Consider than in very Demoratic states the local parties never got any DNC money at all. It all went to the battleground states. Very competitive states got nearly all the RNC money. States where demorats were certain winners or losers got no money. Ypu have seen stories were the RNC has next to no money on hand. That is not because Dean has failed to raise the money, He has raised the money. But he has returned it to the states on a nearly equal basis.

The national party is angry as heck. They think the money going to Mass. for example should all be spent in PA to defeat Santorum. But the national party does not have enough votes in the RNC to defeat Dean. And the state officials that are getting money for the first time are not about to let them replace Dean and take the money away.

Dean is conserned about getting himself reelected. He is not concerned about needy races getting needed money.

Dean also says outrageous things that please the hard core base. They don't think he is out of line. They think he sould be more outspoken. Since hard core base members are a majority of the members of the RNC, Dean is secure.

It is true in both parties. What pleases the base offends the moderate and centrist voters. The base does not understand that fact. So the Democratic base is happy but the party loses races.

[Reform4Bush]

Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico! We're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to... ah, screw it. We're getting our butts kicked again, Yeeeeeaaaaaargggggh!

[HamiltonJay]

Dems hanging Leiberman out to dry, for doing nothing more than recognizing the War on Terror for what it is.. shows you just how irrellevant and nutjob that party has become.

[LibertarianInExile]

I say Isaac Yeffet, former El Al security chief. How about appointing a replacement for Mineta that would be worth a damn?

[Democratshavenobrains]

I would rather have Lieberman continue as Senator than a New England RINO Republican in his seat. If only to further the Left's drive to blatant anti-semitism.

[saveliberty]

ping a ling :-)

So goes the big Dem "advantage". Woo

[SE Mom]

Thanks for ping, SL:) Undoubtedly- Howard Dean is a dream come true!

[tiredoflaundry]

BTTT

[saveliberty]

You're welcome, Mom! :-)

Let's hope that DrDean can keep his job for a couple more election cycles. Woo hoo! And Nancy Pelosi too

Bwhahahahahahahha

[Coop]

Stay the course. Full speed ahead!

[saveliberty]

Woo hoo! :-)

Never fear! The Dems are experts at tossing away any advantage :-)

Or rolling along on the Dessert Cart ;-)

[mathluv]

W even supported snarlin' arlen.

[mathluv]

I am not convinced they are deluded. That is why they are trying to get around the Electoal College.

[onevoter]

At least in Michigan, Stabenaw & Granholm are nearly killing the State. Unemployment is rampant and schools are in trouble (which used to be a shoe-in for Dems). At this point, they are beginning to lose the support of even Democrats. Interestingly, Granholm came into office blaming Engler for the State's problems even though Clinton had been President for eight years and other states were also feeling the pinch. Now that other states are pulling out and Michigan is trailing in recovery, she is blaming President Bush - since the only other alternative would be to look in the mirror. However, I suspect most of the papers and most of the Dems won't see the double standard (or at least will claim not to).

[OldFriend]

In her profound ignorance, her heinous wanted Dean in that spot. She thought he would be marginalized and she'd be in charge.

Perhaps she thought he'd shut his mouth. LOLOL

[Gritty]

[MattinNJ]

BTTT

[FOXFANVOX]

Morning, Save. Thanks for the ping. Always nice to read something encouraging to start the week.