Posted on 06/22/2006 2:39:58 PM PDT by Gothmog
The roller-coaster mood swings of Republican strategists are surging back with growing confidence that the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.
Buoyed by President Bush's two-week bump up in the polls, a congressional victory in California, and new polling that finds Republicans holding their own or challenging in races Democrats have focused on, some strategists are reviewing their earlier expectations of major losses in the House, Senate, and statehouses.
A recent surprise poll that has Republicans hopeful came in the Michigan gubernatorial race where Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is now behind GOP challenger Dick DeVos.
Just three months ago Granholm held a 17 percent lead and last fall was up by 23 percent.
But a May EPIC-MRA poll put DeVos ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, and a newer poll has him leading by 8 percent, 48 to 40. "Looks like we may steal a big governorship from the Dems in Michigan!" a Bush adviser e-mailed.
"That would be sweet. Could also be important for '08 and the ability of our GOP nominee to win this state," he added. Democrats, however, are not looking at defeat there, and say that Granholm is just starting to take on DeVos.
Still, the Republicans are not depressed anymore and are "starting to rise to the battle," said a Republican National Committee insider, who explained that last week's trip by President Bush to Iraq and the clearing of Karl Rove in the CIA spy case have boosted GOP spirits.
Some GOP officials, however, warn against too-early celebration. "Things have finally gone our way for two weeks," said a Republican official, "but we don't want to overstate this." The official said GOP strategists are cautious because they fear the expectations for a comeback will rise too high and could be dashed with any unexpected bad news in the coming weeks.
Another said "we've simply gone from being in reverse to being in neutral." Said another, until three weeks ago "there had been an uneasiness in our circles. This gives people a feeling that things are changing, that's all."
The biggest surprise of November just might occur in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional district. :)
The president will be helping, but he's not going to be out on the campaign trail until 1-2 months before the election.
I haven't had much FR time the last couple months so this may already have been here but I missed it:
I heard on the radio yesterday that Denny Hastert stated that the immigration bill (meaning the Senate's attempt) is DEAD.
If any bill has any chance to be passed, the Senate will basically have to start from the House bill, he seems to be suggesting, so your second paragraph seems to be the operating regime now. I agree with that assessment, too.
The illegal immigration issue has more power than those inside in the beltway, especially the longtimers there, seem to understand. I'm still not sure whether it will have any major impact on the election - Common Tator thinks it won't, though, and he's much smarter than I am about these things.
The more the RNC publishes the speeches of the pro-cut and runners, the more that Pub candidates publish the facts that Dems seem to be defeatists as well as socialists, the more the Prez actually gets out and supports real Pubs instead of RINO's like Chaffee, and the more that Pubs keep to the House-Sensennbrenner illegal immigration bill, the more Pubs will turn out voters to support them.
"And if the challenger won over Chaffee in Rhode Island primary would he lose in the Fall election?"
The media will be so surprised that they'll forget to report it. ;^)
Man, wouldn't that be sweet to see ol' Lincoln sent packing and have a real, live Republican in his place?!?
Oh, they may want to forget it, but they'll have no choice but to report their "decorated, hawkish Marine combat veteran war hero who honorably served" going down in flames. [grin]
Good luck to you all in Rhode Island! Good news about your governor.
To my mind a three man race would be the worst scenario...splitting those inclined to vote for someone besides a Democrat.
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