Posted on 06/13/2006 1:02:11 PM PDT by RWR8189
President Bush failed to get an immediate political bounce from the news that al-Zarqawi was killed last week. The reasons why cannot be determined with assurance, but let's first look at the numbers.
Just before al-Zarqawi was killed, 32% of Americans gave the President good or excellent marks for handling the situation in Iraq. That figure actually slipped a point to 31% in our poll conducted in the days following the good news.
At Rasmussen Reports, we also measure consumer and investor confidence on a daily basis. Following the capture of Saddam Hussein, there was an immediate bounce in the nation's economic confidence. By contrast, economic confidence in the U.S. actually fell slightly in the days following the al-Zarqawi news (it's now come back, but no surge is evident).
Same thing on the Bush Job Approval ratings... Initially, there was absolutely no bounce. Today's reading is 42%. That's up a bit from 40% and we will have to watch to see if that's statistical noise or a modest uptick. At the moment, the default assumption is statistical noise (the President's daily Job Approval ratings have been remarkably stable lately--within three points of the 40% level on 58 out of the 60 days).
A couple of other polls have been released suggesting that the President may have enjoyed a bounce from the latest news. But, the news stories assume more than the numbers can justify. Those polls are quite likely a reliable measure of current views, but they are comparing current readings to results from a month or more ago. Many factors (including statistical noise) could account for the slight improvement they have found.
The more intriguing question is why there was no bounce for the President. One possibility is that there have been so many potential "turning points" in Iraq that the public has adopted a wait and see attitude. Rather than celebrating a turning point, Americans may be waiting for proof in the form of decreased violence and reduced U.S. military involvement in Iraq.
Another possibility, suggested by a wealth of polling data, is that Iraq and the War on Terror are no longer the dominant voting issues. For the first time since 9/11, we will have an election decided on issues closer to home. Immigration, the economy, and other domestic topics may ultimately decide the critical election contests this November.
so now they're taking it to new low levels.. "it's a question of how long it took for the bounce to kick in.. this time inbetweeen.. that could spell trouble.."
Immigration...
Polls= Calling a 1000 people, out of over a 100 million registered voters, to meet the needs of one's agenda...is not a way to gauge public sentiment on anything.
All Polls are BS.
no bias there. Rasmusen is just as bad as the other pollsters.
Gee, you don't think it'll effect his re-election, do you? /sarc
Next time, I hope the President consults the DC Press core and polling agencies before he kills a major terrorist. Why bother wasting the bombs if liberal polls are unaffected. </sarcasm>
"Immigration..."
Yup.
The economy is not an issue.
Unemployment is now running at 4.7% and probably lower by November?
I don't see how it can be "statistical noise." Statistical noise means that there is no reason for it...it's just a lucky polling sample.
Clearly, that is not the case.
The GOP will not lose either branch of Congress and very likely will break about even in both the House and Senate -
The MSM will however tout right up until around a week out from the election that the DEM's will win big time -
Look at his results from 2004.
Exactly.
But, for what it is worth, I DO see a bump coming with the visit to Iraq.
People were happy about Zarqawi, I was happy, but there was a disconnect from the President about it. His actions certainly deserved praise, without which Al Zarqawi wouldn't have been removed. But the difference between that and today, is that this is an action he is directly involved in.
He didn't personally kill Zarqawi. He did personally help the morale of our troops and solidify diplomatic ties with the Iraqi Cabinet and mock the impoetnt terrorists for not being able to get to him.
He'll get a boost for that, I'm certain.
But immigration removes the thron, and so long as they promote amnesty there is a wedge that will not be removed no matter how good the news in Iraq.
He needs to drop amnesty (guest worker) for now. Have the House pass Reid's proposal from in the '90's with some modification, then get the RINO's onboard to support "Reid's" proposal. That's how to fix this.
read the tag :)
ROTFLMAO - Need to remember that one.
The only thing polls are good for.
This is very bad news for Bush. He may not get re elected if these numbers to not quickly change.
Just give me the polls, we'll let time and the long term trend tell the story, thank you.
I'm more interested in the al-Zarqawi Bounce (After the force of the bomb blew him into the air, how much did he bounce when he landed?).
United Press International reports on an unusual poll:
The capture of Osama bin Laden likely would do little to help President Bush's approval ratings, a new poll indicates.
Same goes for the death Wednesday of Iraqi al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, insofar as a Bush boost in popularity, pollster John Zogby says. Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. airstrike Wednesday.
Of the 1,538 respondents to the Zogby interactive survey, most said it was important to catch bin Laden but felt it would not help the president's overall sagging job status of 42 percent.
So now they're taking polls asking people what effect they think events will have on other polls? What next, polls asking people to predict how others will predict events will effect the polls?
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